Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789284674558
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789284674558
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789284674480
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Author: Katarzyna Mroczek-Dąbrowska
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000893928
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
This book addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Central and East European countries and examines the effect the pandemic has had on organizations in the region. It focuses on the widely understood business environment, covering companies’ responses to the crisis, the role of institutions in stabilizing markets, and the reshaping of global business trends. The book is a complex and multidimensional work that draws its roots from distinct yet simultaneously interlinked research areas. All of the chapters, whether they refer to macro-, meso-, or micro-perspectives, always highlight how crises – global and regional – change the global trends we have observed in business in the last 20 years. The book includes the most topical issues that delineate public discourse on firms’ resilience. In this way, it ‘connects the dots’ and uncovers the missing links necessary for any reader wishing to understand the specificity of contemporary companies’ responses to unexpected events such as pandemics or geopolitical crises. Further, it tackles questions such as what role institutions play in building the adaptive capacity of companies, how companies build their resilience capacity for 21st-century crises, and what the significance is of the uncertainty, the information asymmetry, and the bounded rationality concept on the company’s decision-making process. The book will find a broad audience among academics and students across diverse fields of study, as well as practitioners and policymakers. It is a key reference for all those who want to better understand the complex nature of uncertainty, crisis management, and its implications, not only for CEE countries but, first and foremost, the business environment.
Author: Giovanni Pellegrino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513565668
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe socio-economic dislocations and hardship. Supported by an unprecedented policy response and by the easing of lockdown measures as the infection rate moderated, the euro area economy initially recovered strongly from the pandemic’s first wave. However, a large second wave and reimposition of containment measures suggest much slower growth momentum in the near term. The outlook is for a subdued economic recovery and low inflation, with a significant permanent output loss relative to the pre-crisis trajectory. Uncertainty remains extremely high, mainly due to different pandemic scenarios, including regarding the availability and effectiveness of potential vaccines and therapies and behavioral changes. Output growth is expected to be much lower through 2021Q1 than projected in 2020 October World Economic Outlook (WEO) but may rebound beyond then in light of recent promising news on vaccine development. The key policy challenge is to continue countering the pandemic while facilitating a robust and inclusive recovery, including by addressing the health crisis, containing economic scarring, supporting resource reallocation and transformation to greener and more digital economies, and limiting the crisis’s impact on inequality and poverty. In a downside scenario, sizable further stimulus would be needed.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276446279
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis was a major economic shock to both the euro area and the United States. The US experienced a larger impact on human health but suffered a smaller economic contraction. Both regions experienced a faster pace of the recovery than during the global financial crisis. In spite of the larger decline in GDP, the labour market in the euro area remained resilient as job retention schemes and other measures have protected employment, while the US saw sharp changes in employment and unemployment and participation rates. There remains also significant uncertainty over the possible impact of COVID-19 on productivity growth. The latest developments should be seen in the context of longer-term trends. Divergence in per capita incomes between the euro area and the US grew after the global financial crisis, with a decline in euro area TFP growth being the most important factor. Despite the employment rate reaching historically high levels in the euro area before COVID-19, it remained lower than in the US, weighing on the relative growth performance. Capital deepening has stagnated in both regions since the global financial crisis, although private investment in the US has proven more dynamic overall. In stark contrast with the period after the global financial crisis, many euro area governments have now delivered substantial public investment, supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Finally, this paper highlights some tentative lessons for the euro area and it puts forward some issues for further research.
Author: Mariarosaria Comunale
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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Book Description
This paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926481194X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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Book Description
The 2020 edition of Health at a Glance: Europe focuses on the impact of the COVID‐19 crisis. Chapter 1 provides an initial assessment of the resilience of European health systems to the COVID-19 pandemic and their ability to contain and respond to the worst pandemic in the past century.
Author: Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326113
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101797924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
