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Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Get Book Here
Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Casey B. Mulligan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Uncertainty and its composition can affect the demand for social insurance, and thereby the labor market. This paper shows that small to medium-sized increases in uncertainty or risk aversion are enough to recommend an expansion of the safety net that would be broadly similar to the actual safety net expansions, which significantly depressed the labor market. Labor market effects of uncertainty through investment and insurance channels are also examined with employer and employee labor wedges.
Author: John Perry Danforth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Applications for positions
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Book Description
Author: C. J. McKenna
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 186
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Book Description
Author: Francesco De Sinopoli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We offer an example of the job market where the number of agents is uncertain, modeling it as a Poisson game. We allow for heterogeneity of companies and workers, and show that in equilibrium more productive types choose higher terms of trade.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Lewis C. Solmon
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429723601
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 394
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Book Description
This clear, accessible volume provides a comprehensive overview of the ongoing debate over the determining factors of and key influences on employment growth and labor market training, education, and related policies in the United States. Drawing on the work of distinguished labor economists, the chapters tackle questions posed by job and skill demands in the "new high-tech economy" and explore sources of employment growth; productivity growth and its implications for future employment; government mandates, labor costs, and employment; and labor force demographics, income inequality, and returns to human capital. These topics are central concerns for government, which must judge every prospective policy proposal by its effects on employment growth. Washington keeps at least one eye firmly on the jobs picture, and public officials at every level are constantly aware of the issues surrounding American job security. The jobs issue reaches beyond this focus on the unemployment rate and on total employment, including the rate at which employment is seen as growing, the growth of real wages, the security of employment, returns to human capital, uncertainty about the education and training best suited for a world of rapidly changing economic conditions, and the distribution of the gains from growth across economic classes and population groups.
Author: Natalia Komarovskaia
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Due to stagflation, there was a significant deterioration in the global forecast for labor markets for 2022 (according to the International Labor Organization, employment in 2023 should grow by 1.0% compared to a 2.3% growth rate in 2022). The main reasons for stagflation include the uneven recovery from the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. Supply chain constraints persist, resulting in negative shifts in supply curves in commodity and food markets and a corresponding increase in prices. As nominal wages remain at the same level, real labor incomes have declined. In the face of constant high uncertainty, there has been a drop in consumer confidence and a reduction in investment, especially in small and medium-sized businesses. Accordingly, in the AD-AS macroeconomic model, in addition to a left-up shift along the aggregate demand curve, there was also a shift of the aggregate demand curve to the left (negative AD shock) due to a fall in such AD components as consumer spending (C) and private investment (I). Tight monetary policy, which central banks are forced to implement to fight inflation, could exacerbate the reduction in investment spending. As a result, many countries have yet to return to employment levels and hours of work at the end of 2019 (before the COVID-19 crisis).While Europe and Central Asia have been the hardest hit economically by the conflict in Ukraine, although employment is projected to fall in these regions in 2023, unemployment will rise modestly, due to limited growth in the working-age population. In general, the trend of population aging in developed countries and in many emerging markets is shifting supply curves in labor markets to the left, which may offset the effects of lower labor demand on the size of equilibrium wage rates, but will negatively affect the number of jobs. In connection with the reduction in the supply of labor, the real options effect, which leads to the fact that firms are reluctant to hire new workers in conditions of uncertainty, is superimposed by the reluctance of firms to part with valuable employees.Unemployment in Russia in February 2023 decreased to 3.5% from 3.6% recorded in January, having updated its historical low for the second time since the beginning of the year (over the period of observation of the indicator since 1991). This paradoxical result became possible, firstly, due to the fact that the size of the labor force decreased due to mobilization, and, secondly, due to the fact that the employed included those who entered the military service under the contract, previously working in informal sector.
Author: Sylvain Leduc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Hans-Peter Blossfeld
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1781007497
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496
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Book Description
Globalization, Uncertainty and Women's Careers assesses the effects of globalization on the life courses of women in thirteen countries across Europe and America in the second half of the 20th century. The book represents the first-ever longitudinal analysis of micro-level data from these OECD countries focusing exclusively on women's relationship to the labor market in a globalizing world. The contributors thoroughly examine women's employment entries, exits and job mobility and present evidence of women's increased labor market attachment and reduced employment quality in most of the countries studied. They also systematically consider the life course changes influenced by larger transformations in society and, in doing so, explicitly link the phenomena of globalization to individual women's lives in Europe and North America.
