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Author: Adam Jakubik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.
Author: Adam Jakubik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.
Author: Ibrahim Nana
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Author: Shushanik Hakobyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive dataset of more than 4 million observations on 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2018. Implementing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression and the two-stage least squares with instrumental variable approach, I find that geopolitical developments are not as important as income and geographical distance in determining bilateral trade flows and that democracy fosters international trade and moderates the potential negative impact of geopolitics. While the impact of democracy and its interaction with geopolitical distance are significant across all countries, the magnitude of these effects is substantially larger in advanced economies than in developing countries, reflecting the greater strength of democratic institutions, on average, in advanced economies.
Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Using an extensive dataset with more than 4 million observations, I develop an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows among 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2021 and find that the much-debated geopolitical alignment between countries has contradictory and statistically insignificant effects on trade, depending on the level of economic development. Moreover, the economic magnitude of this effect is not as important as income or geographic distance and it diminishes significantly when extreme outliers are removed from the sample. The empirical analysis presented in this paper also confirms that the level of income in both origin and destination countries has a positive impact on trade, while the greater the distance between countries, the smaller the flow of bilateral trade due to higher trade costs. Cultural similarities and historical ties are also important in shaping trade flows, just like trade agreements that tend to lead to higher level of international trade.
Author: Ms. Gita Gopinath
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
Author: Mr. Kevin Fletcher
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Global geopolitical tensions have risen in recent years, and European energy prices have been volatile following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts have suggested that these shifting conditions may significantly affect FDI both to and from Germany. To shed light on this issue and other factors affecting German FDI, we leverage two detailed and complementary FDI datasets to explore recent trends in German FDI and how it is affected by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. In doing so, we also develop a new measure of geopolitical alignment. Our main findings include the following: (i) the post-pandemic recovery in Germany’s inward and outward FDI has been weaker than in the US or the rest of the European Union (EU27) as a whole; (ii) Germany’s outward FDI linkages with geopolitically distant countries have been weakening since the Global Financial Crisis; (iii) the relationship between Germany’s outward FDI and geopolitical distance has become more pronounced over the last six years; (iv) Germany’s outward FDI to China-Russia bloc countries is more sensitive to recent geopolitical developments compared with that to US-bloc countries; and (v) Germany’s outward FDI in energy-intensive sectors decreases as destination countries’ energy costs increase, but energy costs do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on outward FDI in non-energy intensive sectors.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1478
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Book Description
Author: Keith G. Richards
Publisher: BPS Books
ISBN: 1926645685
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 121
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Book Description
You don't have to be disoriented by today's "sideways" stock markets, markets that have hit both a floor and a ceiling. This book shows you how to understand the basics of market realities -- from phases to trends to formations and cycles -- so you can profit from a financial reality that others are unsuccessfully fighting or fleeing.
Author: Ian Waitt
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527504433
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 445
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Book Description
This book skilfully intertwines three main themes in the growth and expression of management. The essential component to understanding of context is established through a stark exposition of the conditions of society in the 18th and 19th centuries. From these is drawn the, until now, unrecognised precursor of major change: the establishment of mass education. This was achieved through the wayward genius of the charismatic teacher Joseph Lancaster who, despite his struggles with the Church and his own foibles, was able through his attractively cheap plan and dominant guiding idea to bring mass education to Britain, then Europe, the USA, the Americas and much of the world, enabling the institution of the first and second industrial revolutions. This occurred in parallel with the remarkable growth of what was to become modern and financial management. The practical case studies also included in the text, usefully highlight the merits and demerits of major societal transformations. An invaluable and essential contribution to the creation of a new paradigm for Management Studies, this important exposition with its emphasis on the human element and experience, is relevant to all students, teachers and practitioners of management; from school, college and university levels to the postgraduate and experienced management practitioner.
