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Author: Yuan Wang
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Yuan Wang
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Fei Ding
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Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 198
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Author: Xiaoming Li
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Stefanie J. Huber
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This thesis sheds light on certain macroeconomic aspects of the housing market. Chapter 1 explores a novel channel for house price bubble formation: the demand for housing consumption. I argue that the lower the demand for housing consumption, the larger the maximum bubble size, and the larger economies' vulnerability to house price bubbles. In terms of policy implications, I show that a help-to-buy scheme makes the economy more bubble-prone, while rental subsidies are an effective tool to reduce the prevalence of house price bubbles. Using a laboratory experiment, Chapter 2 supports the theoretical and empirical findings of Chapter 1. Chapter 3 investigates whether the persistent cross-country differences in homeownership rates are driven by cultural tastes. Analyzing the homeownership attitudes of second-generation immigrants in the United States leads to robust evidence for this hypothesis.
Author: Xian Fang Bak
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Philippe Bracke
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This thesis includes three self-contained chapters whose common theme is the analysis of house price and rent movements, and how these movements influence the economic actions of individuals. In Chapter 1, I analyse a micro dataset on housing sales and rentals in Central London. I show that the ratio between prices and rents differ across property types: bigger and better located properties have higher price-rent ratios. These differences in price-rent ratios can be explained through a hedging model where households avoid rent risk by increasing their demand for homeownership. Consistently with this hypothesis, I find that rental prices for bigger properties and properties in more expensive neighbourhoods are not growing significantly faster than for other properties, but are more volatile. In Chapter 2, together with my two co-authors Christian Hilber and Olmo Silva, I study the relationship between homeownership and entrepreneurship by exploiting the longitudinal dimension of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and constructing a detailed monthly-spell dataset that tracks individuals' job histories and tenure choices, coupled with other time-varying characteristics. Our fixed-effect estimates show that purchasing a house reduces the likelihood of starting a business by 20-25%. This result is driven by homeowners with mortgages and persists for several years after entering homeownership. The negative relationship can be rationalised by portfolio considerations: leveraged housing investments crowd out entrepreneurial investments. Alternative explanations based on credit constraints find little support in our data. In Chapter 3, I analyse the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries and provide two results. First, upturns display duration dependence: they are more likely to end as their duration increases. Second, downturns display lagged duration dependence: they are less likely to end if the previous upturn was particularly long. Both these facts are consistent with a boom-bust view of housing price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain, and busts serve as readjustment periods.
Author: XUE HU
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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These essays contribute towards our understanding of housing and labor economics. This dissertation is composed of three chapters. In the first chapter, I explore the impact of negative housing equity on households' geo- graphical mobility using data from Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The empirical analysis implies that addressing the endogeneity nature of homeowners' underwater mortgage status is crucial. Even with comprehensive controls for households' demographic characteristics and macro-level factors, omitted variable bias such as homeowners' attitudes towards their financial responsibility may still generate estimation bias that is quite large. After proper instrumenting for homeowners' underwater mortgage status using local shocks from housing and labor markets, the estimation results show that having underwater mortgages is associated with an average decline in mobility rate of about 17 percentage points. The second chapter investigates the role of housing choice and mortgage on employment transitions when there are uncertainties regarding income and house prices. Motivated by the empirical evidence on large employment-transition disparities between homeowners and renters, I develop and estimate a structural model in which mortgage obligations motivate homeowners to exert greater job-search efforts during unemployment spells. The model is used to understand individuals' response to housing and labor market shocks. I find that while the decline in house prices creates negative labor market externalities for renters, tightening mortgage constraints result in greater job search incentives for homeowners. With concurrent negative labor market shocks, the probability of transitioning out of unemployment for both renters and homeowners declines. Two policy experiments are conducted. The first shows that lower refinance cost discourages housing equity accumulation and is associated with a decline in the average employment rate. The second demonstrates that a lower down payment requirement encourages the transition into home ownership, which has positive labor market implications, especially for younger individuals. The first two chapters explore the relation between underwater mortgage and geographical mobility and impacts of mortgage debt obligation on employment incentives. Both analyses are based on individual-level data. The last chapter investigates the mysteries of regional housing market disparities from a macro perspective. This chapter shows that local economic conditions are correlated with deviations between house prices and rents in a price-rent model framework, suggesting that the demand for credit and housing is greater when a variety of local economic conditions are more supportive. Several different measures of local economic conditions are considered in this chapter: local unemployment rates, local unemployment rates relative to the natural rate of unemployment, local inflation rates, and measures of local perceptions of the cost of credit. This chapter attempts to offer explanations not as how or why house prices increased, but rather, given the myriad of national factors making home purchase easier and cheaper, where house prices increased. This approach also resolves a bit of a puzzle as to why the housing bubble was so pronounced in some areas and not others.
Author: Eugene N. White
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022609328X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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The central role of the housing market in the recent recession raised a series of questions about similar episodes throughout economic history. Were the underlying causes of housing and mortgage crises the same in earlier episodes? Has the onset and spread of crises changed over time? How have previous policy interventions either damaged or improved long-run market performance and stability? This volume begins to answer these questions, providing a much-needed context for understanding recent events by examining how historical housing and mortgage markets worked—and how they sometimes failed. Renowned economic historians Eugene N. White, Kenneth Snowden, and Price Fishback survey the foundational research on housing crises, comparing that of the 1930s to that of the early 2000s in order to authoritatively identify what contributed to each crisis. Later chapters explore notable historical experiences with mortgage securitization and the role that federal policy played in the surge in home ownership between 1940 and 1960. By providing a broad historical overview of housing and mortgage markets, the volume offers valuable new insights to inform future policy debates.
Author: Deeksha Gupta
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation is motivated by the housing crisis of 2008. It consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, "Too Much Skin-in-the-Game? The Effect of Mortgage Market Concentration on Credit and House Prices," I propose a new theory to help explain the housing crisis. During the housing boom, a small number of institutions--the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and a few banks--held most of U.S. mortgage risk. I develop a theory in which such concentration of mortgage exposure can explain features of the housing crisis. I show that large lenders with many outstanding mortgages have incentives to extend risky credit to prop up house prices. An increase in concentration can lead to a boom with worsening credit quality and a subsequent bust with widespread defaults. In the second chapter, "Concentration and Lending in Mortgage Markets," joint with Ronel Elul and David Musto, we attempt to test the theory described in the first chapter. We provide evidence that concentration in mortgage markets can create perverse lending incentives. We exploit variation in the size of the GSEs' outstanding mortgage exposure across MSAs. Using a loan-level dataset, we provide evidence that the GSEs were more likely to engage in high-risk activities in areas where they had a large exposure to outstanding mortgages. We also provide evidence that this relationship is driven by an incentive to keep house prices high. In the final chapter, "Housing Booms and the Crowding-Out Effect," joint with Itay Goldstein, we study the effect that investment in real estate assets has on the economy. We develop a theory in which housing price booms can sometimes lead to a crowding-out of corporate investment. We show that an increase in real estate prices does not necessarily increase aggregate investment even when firms actively use real estate assets as collateral to borrow against and invest the proceeds in positive NPV projects. We argue that at times, it can be optimal to decrease the price of housing rather than to support high housing prices to stimulate the economy and characterize when this is the case.
Author: Horatio M. Morgan
Publisher:
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Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Efficiency is perhaps one of the most important concepts associated with the functioning of markets in modern economies. When markets are efficient, economic theory suggests that the prices we observe reflect the relative scarcity of resources; and hence, effectively channel those resources to their most productive use. The primary objective of this dissertation is to investigate the efficiency property of the U.S. housing market for single-family homes and the stock market. It does so through the application of advanced techniques in financial and time series econometrics. In relation to the housing market, the empirical evidence is consistent with the version of the efficiency market hypothesis which suggests that asset prices follow a random walk. However, in relation in relation to the stock market, the empirical evidence is inconsistent with the version of the efficient market hypothesis that attributes price changes to the random arrival of new information. For both markets, however, we do not find the empirical evidence to be definitive. In the context of the crisis that emerged in the subprime mortgage segment of U.S. housing market in 2006, this dissertation also investigates the interdependency structure of the housing market as a secondary objective. The main result suggests that home prices do not comove systematically over time.
