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Author: Adalmir A. Marquetti
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Author: Adalmir A. Marquetti
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Author: Oliver Röhn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Author: Padraig Dixon
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ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 800
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Author: Aamer S. Abu-Qarn
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Carlos Ordás Criado
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: David Castells-Quintana
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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"This thesis focuses on the study of two global trends characteristic of modern economic development, namely increased agglomeration and inequalities within countries. The thesis contributes to the understanding of the evolution of both trends and their impact on economic growth in the long term, using multiple techniques for data analysis, and in the light of the theory and corresponding political debate. The starting point of the thesis is the idea that agglomeration and inequality represent two dimensions (spatial and personal) of concentration of resources within countries, which is associated with the process of economic development. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter, three main empirical chapters, a general conclusion, and three methodological appendices. The thesis is mainly a work of applied economics. For the analysis data has been collected for multiple variables and for a large sample of countries worldwide, with the aim of making international comparative analysis. The central dependent variable is the long-run national economic growth rate. Therefore, the analysis conducted is based mostly on the estimation of econometric models of economic growth. Both cross-sectional and panel data are used, covering the 1960-2010 period. Different estimation techniques are studied and applied (from Ordinary Least Squares, Estimates of Fixed Effects, Methodologies Control Functions: "Control Function Approach" Estimates of Fixed Effects with Instrumental Variables and estimates by G05). As for the main contributions, beginning with chapter 2, the thesis shows that the benefits of spatial concentration of economic activity appear to depend on a relatively equal distribution of income. Thus, in high-income countries with unequal distribution of resources, geographic concentration appears to be associated with lower economic growth in the long term. Chapter 3 shows two opposing effects of income inequality on a single model of economic growth. On the one hand a negative effect, associated with inequality of opportunity. On the other hand, a positive effect, associated with unequal outcomes. Likewise, the analysis identifies the transmission channels between inequality and growth to which these two effects relate. Chapter 4 contributes to the debate on the relationship between economic growth and urban concentration, providing empirical evidence on the relevance of the urban environment. In particular, the quality of urban infrastructure is shown as critical to balance the benefits and costs of concentration in large cities. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses key findings and policy implications. In particular, the results contextualize the discussion on agglomeration not only in terms of the level of development, but also in terms of distributional problems, and physical aspects of the urban environment. Regarding the level of development, in the case of low-income countries there appears to be a trade-off between efficiency and equity, at least in the short term, due to the fact that increased urban concentration seems desirable for growth but may involve greater inequalities. For high-income countries, by contrast, a more balanced urban system, in which small and medium-sized cities play a key role, appears as a better strategy than intense urban concentration. In terms of distribution, for both high- and low-income, the fact that the benefits derived from agglomeration depend on income inequality highlights the importance of socio-economic and institutional factors in the debate on urban concentration. Finally, as regards the urban environment, the analysis confirms the concern about informal urban settlements (slums), representing a poverty trap for most of its residents, rather than a transient state in the process of structural change."--TDX.
Author: Jorge Huerta Munoz McNabb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781392134887
Category : Development economics
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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This dissertation studies three empirical questions on development economics. The first two chapters investigate the impact of the Mexican health program Seguro Popular on vulnerability to poverty and educational outcomes. Seguro Popular is a health program that provides healthcare services and medicines to households not covered via salaried jobs and does not provide cash transfers or income to disabled individuals. Enrollment is free for households in the poorest three income deciles. Through November 2018, it covered about 50% of the population. The last chapter investigates the extent to which the Peru's 2010 Progress out of Poverty index (PPI) can be used to predict poverty transitions of households. The PPI has become a preferred proxy means test used by government agencies and non-governmental agencies for its accuracy in measuring poverty and as it is quick, inexpensive, and easy to implement.Currently, the Mexican government evaluates poverty using a national income poverty line and monitors poverty using a multi-dimensional poverty index that tries to account for other aspects of wellbeing beyond a monetary metric. However, there is no estimation of the level of exposure to future poverty, which is an element that should be relevant for anti-poverty and human development programs, especially because households around the poverty line are likely to become poor after they experience a negative shock. Chapter 1 investigates the extent to which Seguro Popular can be used to reduce vulnerability to poverty in Mexico. The empirical analysis provides evidence that Seguro Popular helps reduce vulnerability to poverty. A more granular analysis also shows that households are exposed to different factors, such as macro-economic conditions, labor income changes, and weather events, and that Seguro Popular only helps households cope with negative shocks related to health-related expenses. Thus, when analyzing the program's impact on vulnerable households, Seguro Popular does not have an impact on the most vulnerable households, households with the fewest assets, individuals with the least education, or individuals working mostly in non-salaried jobs.Chapter 2 evaluates the impact of Seguro Popular on education outcomes. Previous studies have helped elucidate the unintended effects of Seguro Popular on labor outcomes decisions, fertility, and healthcare services use, among others. Overall, this study validates the hypothesis that Seguro Popular has a positive impact on educational outcomes for children aged six to 11. On average, participation increases enrollment in elementary school and increases the time spent on schoolwork. Additionally, among the unintended effects, the labor time of children decreases for households enrolled in Seguro Popular.Finally, Chapter 3 investigates the extent to which the PPI can be used to predict poverty transition. Chapter 3 analyzes the PPI indicators that are used to estimate the likelihood that households can be identified as living in poverty. In doing so, it quantifies both the relevance of each variable and the predictive power of the PPI score to determine poverty status. For policymaking, a metric that can help predict future status and measure graduation out of anti-poverty programs, while remaining accurate and limiting measurement errors (which are a waste of the financial budget), is necessary. The results show the effectiveness of using PPI to predict poverty transition in terms of targeting accuracy and measurement errors. However, as with previous results, this study shows that such an approach should be complementary to additional information.
Author: Lezheng Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation collects three empirical essays on inflation and economic growth. The first essay examines the impact of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation. Uncertainty is measured by the conditional variance of inflation, and inflation is modeled as a GARCH-in-mean process with a two-regime Markov-switching coefficient on uncertainty. Using a Bayesian estimator with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, we find that the impacts of uncertainty on inflation are statistically significant and have different signs in different regimes for the U.S. postwar data. The regime switching nature of the inflation process can explain the contradictory theoretical predictions and empirical evidence shown in the existing literature. In the second essay, we develop a time-varying parameter model with survey information to forecast future inflation rates. To capture the inflation dynamics, we first specify quarterly U.S. inflation as an AR(2) process with time-varying unobservable parameters. The model is estimated by the Kalman filter algorithm. We then examine survey data information by combining Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) forecasts into the model. Compared to the survey data and the classical ARIMA models, the time-varying parameter models significantly reduce out-of-sample prediction errors. We find that the improvement lies over the time-varying feature of the models and that including survey data does not significantly improve predictive ability, indicating that the survey data do not contain too much information beyond realized inflation rates. The third essay re-examines the convergence hypothesis by revising a four-step procedure of the panel unit root test suggested by Evans and Karras (1996). We use data on output for 24 OECD countries over 40 years. We incorporate the spatial autoregressive error structure into a fixed-effect panel model to account for spatial dependence that may induce significant size distortion of the conventional panel unit root tests. Bootstrap procedures are employed to find related critical values. In contrast to the results obtained from the test that does not consider the spatial error structure, our results indicate that there is no output convergence among the OECD countries.
Author: Kobsak Potrakool
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 127
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