Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking PDF full book. Access full book title Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking by Paul K. Davis. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833040391
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 106
Get Book Here
Book Description
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833040391
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 106
Get Book Here
Book Description
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833038087
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 181
Get Book Here
Book Description
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833041266
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 89
Get Book Here
Book Description
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Author: Oren Ergas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119147336
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 208
Get Book Here
Book Description
Philosophy East/West showcases new scholarship in the philosophy of education and contemplative studies, paying particular attention to the intersection of mindfulness, evidence-based science, and wisdom traditions. Moves beyond simplistic explanations of “Eastern” and “Western” to explore the complexity and diversity of various wisdom traditions Investigates the effect of mindfulness-based curricular interventions on current educational theory and practice Uses insights from important Western philosophers—including Heidegger, Levinas, and Foucault—to situate contemplative practice within contemporary educational theory Emphasizes the importance of transcultural and intercultural approaches in the philosophy of education
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833042149
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 203
Get Book Here
Book Description
The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309298741
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 286
Get Book Here
Book Description
Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.
Author: Harry R. Yarger
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1428916229
Category : Military doctrine
Languages : en
Pages : 93
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Ognyan Kounchev
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 1586037609
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360
Get Book Here
Book Description
Security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. Threats are being posed not only by adversary (political) forces but may also come from natural challenges. This title reflects the initial state of a dialogue between specialists in security and specialists in mathematics, computer and information sciences on security topics.
Author: Dante Cicchetti
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119125448
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 1176
Get Book Here
Book Description
The seminal reference for the latest research in developmental psychopathology Developmental Psychopathology is a four-volume compendium of the most complete and current research on every aspect of the field. Volume One: Theory and Method focuses on the theoretical and empirical work that has contributed to dramatic advancements in understanding of child and adult development, including findings in the areas of genetics and neurobiology, as well as social and contextual factors. Now in its third edition, this comprehensive reference has been fully updated to reflect the current state of the field and its increasingly multilevel and interdisciplinary nature and the increasing importance of translational research. Contributions from expert researchers and clinicians provide insight into how multiple levels of analysis may influence individual differences, the continuity or discontinuity of patterns, and the pathways by which the same developmental outcomes may be achieved. Advances in developmental psychopathology have burgeoned since the 2006 publication of the second edition ten years ago, and keeping up on the latest findings in multiple avenues of investigation can be burdensome to the busy professional and researcher from psychology and related fields. This reference solves the problem by collecting the best of the best, as edited by Dante Cicchetti, a recognized leader in the field, into one place, with a logical organization designed for easy reference. Get up to date on the latest research from the field Explore new models, emerging theory, and innovative approaches Learn new technical analysis and research design methods Understand the impact of life stage on mental health The complexity of a field as diverse as developmental psychopathology deepens with each emerging theory and new area of study, as made obvious by the exciting findings coming out of institutions and clinics around the world. Developmental Psychopathology Volume One: Theory and Method brings these findings together into a cohesive, broad-reaching reference.
Author: Ronald A. Heifetz
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN: 1625277784
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 621
Get Book Here
Book Description
In times of constant change, adaptive leadership is critical. This Harvard Business Review collection brings together the seminal ideas on how to adapt and thrive in challenging environments, from leading thinkers on the topic—most notably Ronald A. Heifetz of the Harvard Kennedy School and Cambridge Leadership Associates. The Heifetz Collection includes two classic books: Leadership on the Line, by Ron Heifetz and Marty Linsky, and The Practice of Adaptive Leadership, by Heifetz, Linsky, and Alexander Grashow. Also included is the popular Harvard Business Review article, “Leadership in a (Permanent) Crisis,” written by all three authors. Available together for the first time, this collection includes full digital editions of each work. Adaptive leadership is a practical framework for dealing with today’s mix of urgency, high stakes, and uncertainty. It has been used by individuals, organizations, businesses, and governments worldwide. In a world of challenging environments, adaptive leadership serves as a guide to distinguishing the essential from the expendable, beginning the meaningful process of adaption, and changing the status quo. Ronald A. Heifetz is a cofounder of the international leadership and consulting practice Cambridge Leadership Associates (CLA) and the founding director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is renowned worldwide for his innovative work on the practice and teaching of leadership. Marty Linsky is a cofounder of CLA and has taught at the Kennedy School for more than twenty-five years. Alexander Grashow is a Senior Advisor to CLA, having previously held the position of CEO.
