Author: Stanford University. Engineering-Economic Systems Department. Decision Analysis Program
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision-making
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This paper presents a useful concept for decision analysis -- the value of information having flexibility. An exploration is made into the impact of decision flexibility on the value of information. The usefulness of calculating the value of information under various assumptions concerning decision flexibility is illustrated with a simple economic example. An upper limit to the value of information given flexibility is the expected value of perfect information given perfect flexibility (EVPIGPF). By approximating an arbitrary smooth value function with a quadratic equation, first order characteristics of the EVPIGPF are identified. Finally, it is shown that the technique of proximal decision analysis may be expanded to provide a simplified estimation of the EVPIGPF for large-scale decision problems.
Author: Martin J. Vilela
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303086989X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.
Author: Armin Schmutzler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642956718
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
1 The Importance of Irreversibility and Learning - Familiar 11 Bxamples Revisited 1. 1 Neoclassical Investment Models: A Brief Survey 11 1. 1. 1 The Standard Neoclassical Investment Theory Model 13 1. 1. 2 The Investment Model with Adjustment Costs 15 1. 1. 3 The Irreversibility of Investment 17 1. 1. 4 Delivery Lags 18 1. 2 Flexible Manufacturing Systems 22 1. 2. 1 Some Basic Facts about Manufacturing 23 1. 2. 2 The Determinants of the Flexibility of Manufacturing Systems 25 1. 2. 3 Manufacturing as a Multiperiod Choice Problem 28 1. 3 Conclusions 30 2 The Role of Irreversibility and Learning in Sequential Decision Problems - Basic Concepts 33 2. 1 The Two-Period Model without Uncertainty 33 2. 1. 1 The Elements of the Model 34 2. 1. 2 Economic Examples 37 2. 1. 3 Some Basic Results 39 2. 1. 4 Intertemporal Opportunity Costs 42 2. 2 The Two-Period Model with Uncertainty 46 2. 2. 1 The Elements of the Kodel 46 2. 2. 2 Special Cases 50 2. 2. 3 Flexibility and the Value of Information 54 2. 2. 4 An Example: Waiting to Invest 56 2. 3 Switching Costs 59 2. 3. 1 The Extended Model 59 2. 3. 2 An Example: Money Demand as Demand for Flexibility 61 2. 4 Summary and Outlook 63 3 Determinants of the Optimal Choice in Sequential Decision Problems - The Two-Period Case 65 3. 1 The Formulation of the Problem 66 3. 1.
Author: Jo Eidsvik
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316432122
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
Gathering the right kind and the right amount of information is crucial for any decision-making process. This book presents a unified framework for assessing the value of potential data gathering schemes by integrating spatial modelling and decision analysis, with a focus on the Earth sciences. The authors discuss the value of imperfect versus perfect information, and the value of total versus partial information, where only subsets of the data are acquired. Concepts are illustrated using a suite of quantitative tools from decision analysis, such as decision trees and influence diagrams, as well as models for continuous and discrete dependent spatial variables, including Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, Gaussian processes, and multiple-point geostatistics. Unique in scope, this book is of interest to students, researchers and industry professionals in the Earth and environmental sciences, who use applied statistics and decision analysis techniques, and particularly to those working in petroleum, mining, and environmental geoscience.
Author: Christian Artmann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540938338
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Managing uncertainty in new product development projects for improved valuation and decision making is one of the most complex and challenging problems in operations management. It is important for any corporation depending on the success of new products and innovations. This work shows how uncertainty can be handled and partly resolved by conducting an information update during the development process. It is one of the first comprehensive models that combine statistical decision theory in form of Bayesian analysis with a real options framework for projects exposed to different sources of uncertainty. The proposed framework makes an important theoretical contribution in addressing this problem, while at the same time being of significant value to managers who face the difficult task of evaluating and managing complex product development projects.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 1072
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Book Description
Author: Rulon D. Pope
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer education
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
Author: Sushil
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 8132223802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
This edited book provides a conceptual framework of managing flexibility in the areas of people, process, technology and business supported by researches/case applications in various types of flexibilities in business. The book is organized into following five parts: (i) Managing Flexibility; (ii) People Flexibility; (iii) Process Flexibility; (iv) Flexibility in Technology and Innovation Management; and (v) Business Flexibility. Managing flexibility at the level of people, process, technology and business encompasses the requirements of both choice and speed. The need for managing flexibility is growing to cope with the developments and challenges in the global business environment. This can be seen from reactive as well as proactive perspectives. Flexibility is a major dimension of business excellence and deals with a paradoxical view point such as stability and dynamism, continuity and change, centralization and decentralization, and so on. It needs to be managed at the levels of people, process, technology and various business functions and it is important to create flexibility at the level of people to create and manage flexibility in processes and technologies in order to support flexible business requirements.
Author: Sushil
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811048886
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 226
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Book Description
This book provides a conceptual ‘Flexibility in Resource Management’ framework supported by research/case applications in various related areas. It links and integrates the flexibility aspect with resource management to offer a fresh perspective, since flexibility in different levels of resource management is emerging as a key concern -- a business enterprise needs to have reactive flexibility (as adaptiveness and responsiveness) to cope with the changing and uncertain business environment. It may also endeavor to intentionally create flexibility by way of leadership change, re-engineering, innovation in products and processes, use of information and communication technology, and so on. The selected papers discussing a variety of issues concerning flexibility in resource management, are organized into following four parts: flexibility and innovation; flexibility in organizational management; operations and technology management; and financial and risk management. In addition to addressing the organizational needs of corporate bodies spread across the globe, the book serves as a useful reference resource for a variety of audiences including management students, researchers, business managers, consultants and professional institutes.
Author: Julia Connell
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811089299
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 345
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Book Description
This book provides a conceptual framework of global value chains, flexibility and sustainability, supported by research projects, case applications and models in various related areas organized into three parts. In the first part of the book, various authors discuss how to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of global value chains through various types of analyses. While the focus is on cluster management, and mergers and joint ventures, the legal aspects of control and liability concerning the integration of value chains, is also examined in one of the contributions. The second part includes chapters concerning ‘Strategy and Flexibility’. Strategies concern topics such as inventory management, talent management, strategic alignment, decision making, behavioural change and HR systems. The third and final part of the volume concerns the topic of ‘Sustainability’, wherein the contributions focus on various initiatives intended to promote sustainability across respective value chains bearing in mind the concept of flexibility. The book is a valuable resource for a varied audience, ranging from management students and researchers, to practicing business managers, as well as for professional institutions, consultants, and corporate organizations.
