The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa PDF Download
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Author: David A. Robalino
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : AIDS (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region--Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors--sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP. This paper--a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region--is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at
[email protected].
Author: David A. Robalino
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : AIDS (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region--Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors--sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP. This paper--a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region--is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at
[email protected].
Author: Robalino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: David A. Robalino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region - Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors - sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.This paper - a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at
[email protected].
Author: Markus Haacker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475535783
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Author: Michel Caraël
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402061722
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
Forty years ago, the age-old battle against infectious diseases as a major threat to human health was believed close to being won. However, by the late twentieth century, the increase of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases was evident in both low and high income countries. About 30 new infectious diseases have been identified in the last 20 years. Among the "new" diseases, and most importantly, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic, with 40 million persons infected and 25 million deaths since its first description, presents one of the most significant health, societal and security challenges facing the global community. The interaction of HIV/AIDS with tuberculosis, malaria and bacterial infections have increased HIV-related morbidity and mortality, and in turn, the HIV pandemic has brought about devastating increases in tuberculosis. Understanding the population impact and the dynamics of infection diseases in the most affected region is critical to efforts to reduce the morbidity and mortality of such infections, and for decisions on where to use limited resources in the fight against infections. This book aims to contribute to these efforts by offering a demographic and epidemiological perspective on emerging and reemerging infections in sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.
Publisher: World Health Organization
ISBN:
Category : Health & Fitness
Languages : en
Pages : 226
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Book Description
This report presents three hypothetical case studies for how the AIDS epidemic in Africa could evolve over the next 20 years based on policy decisions taken today by African leaders and the rest of the world; and considers the factors likely to drive the future responses of African countries and the international community. The scenarios draw on the age-old tradition of story-telling, rather than using data projections, to explore the wider context of the AIDS epidemic, reflecting the complexity of the subject matter.
Author: Anne Maryse Pierre-Louis
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821357903
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
This publication contains papers presented at the Middle East regional symposium, held in Beirut in June 2002, to discuss public health challenges in the Middle East and North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean (MENA/EM) regions. Issues discussed include: public health functions and infrastructures, health economics, affordable and culturally appropriate services for disease prevention and treatment to reduce the dual burden of illness and disability, promotion strategies, the HIV/AIDS situation, issues of road safety, and strengthening primary health care in Iran.
Author: Farrukh Iqbal
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821365282
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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Book Description
This book reviews the experience of the MENA region with poverty and human development since the mid-1980s. It finds that poverty rates did not decline by much during this period while health and education indicators improved substantially. The stagnation of poverty rates is ascribed to the stagnation of the region's economies during this period while the improvement in human indicators is likely due to several factors including improvement in the delivery of public health and education services.
Author: Carol Lynn Jenkins
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821355787
Category : AIDS (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 202
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Book Description
"This book reviews the current knowledge available on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the MENA/EM region with the goal of stimulating discussion among policy- and decisionmakers. In other regions, early investments in good surveillance and effective prevention programs have proved to be relative bargains, compared with the costs of a full-blown epidemic. As the authors argue, the time to act is now, while prevalence levels are still low. To that end, they make specific recommendations and offer best practices and case studies from around the world." "This volume is the product of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the World Health Organization (Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office), and the World Bank. It will be of particular interest to those in the fields of public health, social policy, and economic development, as well as to students and scholars of the region." --Résumé de l'éditeur.
