The Relationship Between the Future Oil Price and European Stock Markets PDF Download
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Author: Siobhán Catherine O'Connell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Author: Siobhán Catherine O'Connell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Author: Miramir Bagirov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
This paper extends the understanding of the relationship between oil prices, stock markets and financial performance of oil and gas firms over the past decade. Firstly it studies the impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in Europe. Secondly, it examines the volatility spillovers between oil and European stock markets. As oil price changes do not equally affect all industries, the study conducts both market-level and sector-level analysis. Thirdly, it examines the impact of crude oil price changes on the financial performance measure of oil and gas firms, both listed and unlisted, from the Western European region.The findings show existence of the one-way directional relationship between oil and most of the European sector stock markets. Furthermore, the results indicate volatility spillovers between returns in oil price and stock markets. It was found that crude oil prices significantly and positively impact the performance of listed oil and gas firms in Western Europe. In the case with unlisted firms, the results suggest existence of other factors that have an impact on their performance. The geopolitical crisis (2014) negatively affected the financial performance of both listed and unlisted firms. On the other hand, financial performance of only listed oil and gas firms was negatively influenced by the global financial crisis (2008-2009).
Author: Dexiang Mei
Publisher: Scientific Research Publishing, Inc.
ISBN: 1618969811
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 165
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Book Description
The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the futures market is an important part of modern financial markets, the futures market volatility is an important part of the theory of financial markets research.
Author: Jung Wook Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation analyze the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market for the US and 13 European countries with monthly data from 1986.1-2005.12. Three countries (Denmark, Norway and the UK) among 13 European countries are oil exporting countries. Unrestricted multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) with 4 variables (interest rates, real oil price changes, industrial production and real stock returns) is estimated as well as impulse response function and variance decomposition. With regard to impact of oil price shocks on the stock market, in most oil importing countries oil price shocks have significantly negative effect on the stock market in the same month or in one month, while among oil exporting countries only Norway shows a significantly positive response of real stock returns to oil price shocks. Comparing the impacts of oil price shocks and interest rate (monetary) shocks on the stock market, in most oil importing countries oil price shocks have a greater impact than interest rate shocks, except for a few countries where monetary policy responds systemically to oil price shocks by raising interest rates, which leads to a decline in real stock returns. Therefore, taking into account the response of monetary policy to oil price shocks, oil prices play a crucial role in the stock market of oil importing countries. On the contrary, in oil exporting countries oil price shocks have a smaller impact on the stock market than interest rate shocks, and monetary policy does not respond to the oil price shocks. According to the literature, oil price shocks have an asymmetric effect on economic activity and the stock market in that oil price increases have a greater impact than oil price decreases. However, in this dissertation, the asymmetric pattern is a little different. In the sub-sample period (1996.5-2005.12) when oil price increases more frequently than oil price decreases and the average magnitude of oil price increases is smaller than that of oil price decreases, stock markets in most countries are more influenced by oil price decreases than oil price increases in the variance decomposition analysis. In particular, statistically significant evidence at the 5% level is found that oil price decreases have a greater impact on real stock returns than oil price increases after the mid 1990's in the US.
Author: Bhaskar Bagchi
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1786355531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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Book Description
This book examines the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of emerging economies. Unfortunately very little research has been conducted to analyze the volatility spillovers and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India.
Author: Ramazan Gençay
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080509223
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 383
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Book Description
An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics presents a unified view of filtering techniques with a special focus on wavelet analysis in finance and economics. It emphasizes the methods and explanations of the theory that underlies them. It also concentrates on exactly what wavelet analysis (and filtering methods in general) can reveal about a time series. It offers testing issues which can be performed with wavelets in conjunction with the multi-resolution analysis. The descriptive focus of the book avoids proofs and provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and nonparametric filtering methods. Examples and empirical applications will show readers the capabilities, advantages, and disadvantages of each method. - The first book to present a unified view of filtering techniques - Concentrates on exactly what wavelets analysis and filtering methods in general can reveal about a time series - Provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and non-parametric filtering methods
Author: Stavros Antonios Degiannakis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
The time-varying correlation between oil prices returns and European industrial sector indices returns, considering the origin of the oil price shock, is investigated. A time-varying multivariate heteroskedastic framework is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from 10 European sectors. The contemporaneous correlations suggest that the relationship between sector indices and oil prices change over time and they are industry specific. In addition, the supply-side oil price shocks result in low to moderate positive correlation levels, the precautionary demand oil price shocks lead to almost zero correlation levels, whereas the aggregate demand oil price shocks generate significant changes in the correlation levels (either positive or negative). Both the origin of the oil price shock and the type of industry are important determinants of the correlation level between industrial sectors' returns and oil prices. Prominent among the results is the fact that during the financial crisis of 2008 some sectors were providing diversification opportunities to investors dealing with the crude oil market.
Author: Sakib Bin Amin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
The link between stock market prices and oil prices has drawn considerable attention in recent decades because the risk and uncertainties associated with oil price volatility affect investor's portfolios, particularly, those investors seeking to make optimal portfolio allocations. This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the stock market index in South Asia. Based on a sample of four countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for the period 1997-2017, we use the nonlinear Autoregressive distributed model estimated by Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. We show that there is a positive relationship between the world oil price and stock market index; and that the response of stock market index to positive and negative oil price shocks are asymmetric. Counter to prior research in developing countries, our findings imply that higher oil prices in the world market stimulate stock prices which suggests that the stock markets in the South Asian region do not follow the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for which the shocks in the crude oil market are not rationally signaled in the financial market. Another plausible justification of this movement in the same direction, as explained by Bernanke (2016), is that both oil price and stock prices are reacting to a change in some common underlying factor, which he calls the global aggregate demand and market risk aversion.
Author: Danilo Pavlićević
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Ever since crude oil became a lifeline to the world economy, there is no doubt that oil is the most traded commodity in the world’s stock markets. There have been numerous articles and research papers written about the relationship between oil prices and stock markets, and the correlation between the two. Vast majority of them have shown that there is a correlation between them, and that changes in one affect the other. However, very few have examined the determinants of co-movements between oil prices and stock markets using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. This thesis examines determinants of co-movements between three oil importing countries stock market indices, as well as three oil exporting countries stock indices and the crude oil prices. What makes this study relevant is that it is not only examining stock indices of randomly selected countries, but it shows indices of three chosen oil importing and oil exporting countries. For the purpose of this research the oil importing countries used to demonstrate the effects in changes in determinants of co-movements between oil prices and stock markets are USA, China, and Germany. Each is chosen to represent certain parts of the world. For the oil exporting countries, we excluded countries whose entire GDP or at least huge portion of it, is only consistent of oil exports. Therefore, Norway, the European largest oil exporter, Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and Canada, largest North American oil exporter, are taken in order to reflect the effects of changes in determinants of co-movements in their respective stock markets. Economic policy uncertainty Index (EPU), Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the exchange rate between US dollar and all the other countries’ currencies. These are the factors affecting both oil prices and stock markets. EPU Index shows how often do national newspaper articles in a certain country write about issues pertaining to the economy uncertainty and policy-related matters. When it comes to GPR Index, it is based on measuring the frequency of words related to geopolitical tensions in leading international newspapers. The US dollar is the world’s most important currency; therefore, all the other countries in the world strive to maintain steady exchange rate between the US dollar and currencies of their own. By using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, this study will show the effects of each determinant on stock markets of US, Germany, China, Russia, Norway, and Canada.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
