The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America PDF full book. Access full book title The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America by Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484361695
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book
Book Description
We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.
Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484361695
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book
Book Description
We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.
Author: Mr.Antonio David
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484353056
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 67
Get Book
Book Description
This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, central bank reports, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation for these economies
Author: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484304489
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Get Book
Book Description
The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513574337
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book
Book Description
The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay.
Author: José Antonio González
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226302687
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
Get Book
Book Description
Hidden behind a number of economic crises in the mid- to late 1990s-including Argentina's headline-grabbing monetary and political upheaval-is that fact that Latin American economies have, generally speaking, improved dramatically in recent years. Their success has been due, in large part, to macroeconomic reforms, and this book brings together prominent economists and policymakers to assess a decade of such policy shifts, highlighting both the many success stories and the areas in which further work is needed. Contributors offer both case studies of individual countries and regional overviews, covering monetary, financial, and fiscal policy. Contributors also work to identify future concerns and erect clear signposts for future reforms. For instance, now that inflation rates have been stabilized, one suggested "second stage" monetary reform would be to focus on reducing rates from high to low single digits. Financial sector reforms, it is suggested, should center on improving regulation and supervision. And, contributors argue, since fiscal stability has already been achieved in most countries, new fiscal reforms need to concentrate on institutionalizing fiscal discipline, improving the efficiency and equity of tax collection, and modifying institutional arrangements to deal with increasingly decentralized federal systems. The analysis and commentary in this volume-authored not only by academic observers but by key Latin American policymakers with decades of firsthand experience-will prove important to anyone with an interest in the future of Latin American's continuing economic development and reform. Contributors to this volume: José Antonio González, Stanford University Anne O. Krueger, International Monetary Fund Vittorio Corbo, Pontifical Catholic University, Chile Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile Alejandro Werner, Bank of Mexico Márcio G. P. Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University, Rio Tatiana Didier, World Bank Gustavo H. B. Franco, former president, Central Bank of Brazil Francisco Gil Díaz, Minister of the Treasury, Mexico Roberto Zahler, former governor, Central Bank of Chile Ricardo J. Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Philip L. Brock, University of Washington Stephen Haber, Stanford University Pablo E. Guidotti, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires Vito Tanzi, International Monetary Fund Enrique Dávila, Ministry of Finance, Mexico Santiago Levy, Mexican Social Security Institute Ricardo Fenochietto, private consultant, Buenos Aires Rogério L. F. Werneck, Pontifical Catholic University, Rio Carola Pessino, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Buenos Aires Michael Michaely, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484377451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book
Book Description
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498322433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Get Book
Book Description
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484379063
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book
Book Description
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.
Author: Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1462307213
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 93
Get Book
Book Description
This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, Budget Speeches, central bank reports, Convergence and Stability Programs submitted by the authorities to the European Commission, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation.
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
Get Book
Book Description
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
