The Interdependent Use of Earnings and Dividends in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts PDF Download
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Author: Kirsten Ely
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper examines how analysts combine earnings and dividend information when they predict future earnings. Because both earnings and dividends are noisy indications of future earnings, we posit that analysts use the two corroboratively, to confirm the information reflected in each, and that analysts will substitute away from earnings when it is noisy and toward dividends. Using regressions of analysts' earnings forecast revisions on unexpected earnings, unexpected dividends, and five variables that reflect whether the signs of unexpected earnings and dividends confirm or contradict each other, we find evidence of both corroboration and substitution. Analysts' earnings forecast revisions are significantly related to the five corroborative variables, and this relation has statistically significant explanatory power beyond that in the magnitudes of unexpected earnings and unexpected dividends. Consistent with expectations, we find that the evidence of corroboration varies across the noisiness of earnings information; there is more evidence of corroboration when earnings are more variable. We also find evidence consistent with analysts substituting away from earnings, toward dividend information for firms with noisy earnings information (high variance). Overall, the results imply that analysts use earnings and dividends information interdependently, with some interdependency determined by the noisiness of earning announcements.
Author: Kirsten Ely
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper examines how analysts combine earnings and dividend information when they predict future earnings. Because both earnings and dividends are noisy indications of future earnings, we posit that analysts use the two corroboratively, to confirm the information reflected in each, and that analysts will substitute away from earnings when it is noisy and toward dividends. Using regressions of analysts' earnings forecast revisions on unexpected earnings, unexpected dividends, and five variables that reflect whether the signs of unexpected earnings and dividends confirm or contradict each other, we find evidence of both corroboration and substitution. Analysts' earnings forecast revisions are significantly related to the five corroborative variables, and this relation has statistically significant explanatory power beyond that in the magnitudes of unexpected earnings and unexpected dividends. Consistent with expectations, we find that the evidence of corroboration varies across the noisiness of earnings information; there is more evidence of corroboration when earnings are more variable. We also find evidence consistent with analysts substituting away from earnings, toward dividend information for firms with noisy earnings information (high variance). Overall, the results imply that analysts use earnings and dividends information interdependently, with some interdependency determined by the noisiness of earning announcements.
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981627
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 125
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Book Description
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Author: Bong-Heui Han
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Author: Konrad E. Gunderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Author: Cheng-Few Lee
Publisher: Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press
ISBN: 9868518245
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the quantitative analysis of finance and accounting. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in finance and accounting as well as applications of quantitative methods to problems in financial management, financial accounting, and business management. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance and accounting and applied research in the financial community and the accounting profession. The papers in this volume cover a wide range of topics including corporate finance and debt management, earnings management, equity market, auditing, option pricing theory, and interest rate theory. In this volume there are eleven chapters, five of them are corporate finance and debt management: 1. Liquidity and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Five-or-Fewer Rule Change; 2. Changing Business Environment and the Value of Relevance of Accounting Information; 3. Pricing Risky Securities in Hidden Markov-Modulated Poisson Processes; 4. An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Dividend Expectation Models; 5. Quantitative Market Risk Disclosure, Bond Default Risk and The Cost of Debt: Why Value At Risk? There are two of the other six chapters which cover interest rate theory: 1. Positive Interest Rates and Yields: Additional Serious Considerations; 2. Collapse of Dimensionality in the Interest Rate Term Structure. The remaining four chapters cover financial analysts earnings forecasts, equity market, auditing, and option pricing theory. These four papers are: 1. Investors’ Apparent Under-weighting of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: The Role of Share Price Scaling and Omitted Risk Factors; 2. Predicting Stock Price by Applying the Residual Income Model and Bayesian Statistics; 3. Intertemporal Associations Between Non-Audit Services and Auditors’ Tendency to Allow Discretionary Accruals; 4. Put Option Portfolio Insurance vs. Asset Allocation.
Author: Philip Brown
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781740671385
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
Author: Philip R. Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We examine the link between the accuracy of consensus analysts' dividend forecasts, earnings predictability and dividend policies of firms in 39 countries from 1995 to 2004. For firms that display stronger dividend smoothing, as modeled by Lintner (1956), there is a lower correlation between dividend and earnings forecast errors, with less of the earnings uncertainty being passed into dividend uncertainty. The link between earnings and dividend forecast errors is weaker in common-law, capital market-based countries and in countries with well-developed financial (debt and equity) markets, where firm managers have greater incentives to smooth dividends and to use dividends for signaling.
Author: Sean Michael Hennessey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Robert Ferguson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The traditional dividend discount model is irrelevant for financial analysts. It requires them to forecast an infinite stream of dividends. Most of the present value is due to the forecast dividends far in the future. This part of the forecast is highly uncertain; hence nobody takes the forecast seriously or believes the resulting present value. Fairfield [1994] restates the model in terms of abnormal earnings, which reflect a firm's abnormal ROE. A reasonable abnormal ROE forecast will fall to zero before long. This and the discounting process assure that the early years account for most of the present value. Thus, the forecast required by this variant of the model is believable.This paper reviews Fairfield's model and provides additional insight into the price/book value and price/earnings ratios. It also presents her model as a spreadsheet that financial analysts can use. Hypothetical growth and val-ue companies are analyzed to illustrate the ideas. A hypothetical cyclical company is analyzed to show that Fairfield's characterization of the price/earnings ratio's behavior is too simple. An innovative and practical approach to forecasting abnormal ROEs is developed. The model also is used to illustrate the advantage of financing growth by selling stock at a high price/book value ratio.
Author: Clare B. Roberts
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
This volume is concerned with financial reporting issues resulting from the growth and spread of multinational corporations. The book consists of up-to-date readings from a broad range of international journals which look at, and evaluate, the financial accounting techniques adopted in different parts of the world for dealing with issues such as segment reporting, disclosure standards, financial reporting and stock markets. The final part deals with the reporting practices of individual companies over time. This insightful volume will be of value to researchers and practitioners alike.
