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Author: Michael Elsby
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on quot;Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment,quot; i.e., the extent to which increased unemployment during a recession arises from an increase in the number of unemployment spells versus an increase in their duration. After broadly reviewing the previous literature, we replicate and extend Shimer's main analysis. Like Shimer, we find an important role for increased duration. But contrary to Shimer's conclusions, we find that even his own methods and data, when viewed in an appropriate metric, reveal an important role for increased inflows to unemployment as well. This finding is further strengthened by our refinements of Shimer's methods of correcting for data problems and by our detailed examination of particular components of the inflow to unemployment. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates as well as procyclical outflow rates.
Author: Michael Elsby
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on quot;Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment,quot; i.e., the extent to which increased unemployment during a recession arises from an increase in the number of unemployment spells versus an increase in their duration. After broadly reviewing the previous literature, we replicate and extend Shimer's main analysis. Like Shimer, we find an important role for increased duration. But contrary to Shimer's conclusions, we find that even his own methods and data, when viewed in an appropriate metric, reveal an important role for increased inflows to unemployment as well. This finding is further strengthened by our refinements of Shimer's methods of correcting for data problems and by our detailed examination of particular components of the inflow to unemployment. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates as well as procyclical outflow rates.
Author: Michael W. L. Elsby
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Unemployment
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," i.e., the extent to which increased unemployment during a recession arises from an increase in the number of unemployment spells versus an increase in their duration. After broadly reviewing the previous literature, we replicate and extend Shimer's main analysis. Like Shimer, we find an important role for increased duration. But contrary to Shimer's conclusions, we find that even his own methods and data, when viewed in an appropriate metric, reveal an important role for increased inflows to unemployment as well. This finding is further strengthened by our refinements of Shimer's methods of correcting for data problems and by our detailed examination of particular components of the inflow to unemployment. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates as well as procyclical outflow rates.
Author: Ronald Bachmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper analyses the contribution of the composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to labour market dynamics in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual-level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between upswings and downturns into explained and unexplained parts. We find that the duration of unemployment contributes to explaining unemployment outflows to employment and observe that its initially positive contribution turns negative in deep recessions. Composition effects play an important role for unemployment outflows to non-participation but dampen the cyclicality of unemployment inflows from employment.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 454
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Book Description
Author: Robert Shimer
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400835232
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 189
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Book Description
Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Author: Mariano Bosch
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
Author: Herbert Hoover
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
Author: S. Lael Brainard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 80
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Book Description
This paper examines the importance of sectoral reallocation and cyclical unemployment; in the postwar US economy. It develops a new measure of reallocation shocks based on the variance of industry stock market excess returns over time, termed cross section volatility. Data on unemployment and vacancies is used to establish that the cross section volatility series is effective in isolating reallocation shocks. The series is then used to measure the contribution of reallocation shocks to aggregate unemployment and to unemployment; of varying durations. On average, about 40 percent of aggregate unemployment is explained by reallocation, but much of the variance of unemployment through time is better explained by cyclical shocks. Reallocation shocks account; for a relatively larger share of long duration unemployment.
Author: Gerard Domènech-ArumÃ
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of pro-cyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (i) shorter non-employment duration, especially among younger workers; (ii) higher labor force exit and other programs' take-up, especially among older workers; (iii) lower wages upon re-employment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term benefit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.
