Author: John Christopher Donovan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cointegration
Languages : en
Pages : 78

Get Book Here

Book Description

Author: Richard K. Crump
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-
Languages : en
Pages :

Get Book Here

Book Description
We estimate the natural rate of unemployment, often referred to as u*, in the United States using data on labor market flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960-2021 period. The natural rate of unemployment was at around 4.5% before the onset of the pandemic and increased to 5.9% by the end of 2021. This pronounced rise was primarily informed by strong wage growth rather than changes in inflation expectations. Despite the rise in the natural rate of unemployment, the secular trend of unemployment continued to fall and stands at around 4.2% reflecting ongoing secular developments which have been pushing down the unemployment rate over the last 30 years. Our model forecasts strong wage growth to moderate only sluggishly continuing to put upward pressure on inflation in the medium-run. We project underlying inflation to remain 0.5 percentage points above its long-run trend by the end of 2023 even if long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Given the importance of wage growth for the inflation outlook, we examine detailed micro data on job-filling rates, posted wages for vacant positions, and workers' reservation wages. In particular, we construct a composition-bias free measure of wage growth at the employer-job level using Burning Glass Technologies data and document strong wage growth for both teleworkable and non-teleworkable jobs. Moreover, we find that workers' reservation wages increased substantially after the pandemic. Our empirical analysis suggests that the strong wage growth is likely not a one-time adjustment of additional compensation for jobs that pose health risks to workers but rather reflects a tight labor market accompanied with a changing work-leisure trade-off.

Author: Anthony M. Santomero
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Employment (Economic theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 82

Get Book Here

Book Description

Author: Aras Khazal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

Get Book Here

Book Description
This paper uses a panel approach to analyze the relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in 12 OECD countries (i.e. Australia, Canada, Norway, Czech Republic, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Israel, Korea, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United State). Since the trade-off relationship between inflation and unemployment in the United Kingdom pointed out by professor William Philips in 1958, this hypothesis of “Philips Curve” remains as an important foundation for policy and macroeconomic. The main findings of this panel data analysis is that there is evidence of a significant negative relationship - which seem to indicate that there is a potential trade-off between unemployment and inflation.

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505523
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 71

Get Book Here

Book Description
At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483264564
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244

Get Book Here

Book Description
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.

Author: K. Brunner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940098135X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 367

Get Book Here

Book Description
The fateful days of the great stock market crash entered modem history almost 50 years ago to this day. The cyclic turning point of the U. S. economy oc curred, however, around June 1929, and economic activity receded substantial ly over the subsequent months. The onset of an economic downswing thus became clearly visible before the famous crash. But the October event stays in the public's mind as the symbol of the Great Depression. For nearly four years, until the spring of 1933, the U. S. economy plunged into a deep reces sion. Activity declined, prices fell, and there emerged a massive unemploy ment problem. The economy ultimately overcame this shock in 1933. Prices rose rapidly in spite of substantial margins of unusual resources. Activity ex panded, but occasionally at a somewhat hesitant rate. The expansion, however, was interrupted by another recession of major proportions during 1937-38. The tragic sequence of events shaped public consciousness and influenced new approaches and views in economic policymaking. The activist approach to "stabilization policy" and a wide range of regulatory policies were essentially justified in terms of this experience. These policies were crucially influenced by our understanding and interpretation of the Great Depression. The view of a radically unstable economic process perennially on the edge of serious collapse gained wide popularity and became a central element of the Keynesian tradi- 2 INTRODUCTION tion. It encouraged, with supplementary interpretations, an interventionist and expanding role of the government in our economic affairs.

Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545

Get Book Here

Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Author: Jeff Fuhrer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 026225820X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517

Get Book Here

Book Description
Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Author: David G. Blanchflower
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262023757
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504

Get Book Here

Book Description
The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical law of economics.