The Impact of News Sentiment on Copper and Crude Oil Futures Returns PDF Download
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Author: David Dietachmair
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Taking into account the growing participation of boundedly rational speculators and financial investors in commodity futures markets and the high relevance of price developments for different institutions and the whole macro economy, the main objective of this thesis is to provide knowledge about whether the sentiment of commodity-related media articles is able to influence copper and crude oil futures returns. Regarding this question, robust evidence is found that a shock in news sentiment induces a copper and crude oil price pattern characterized by a statistically significant and economic meaningful intraday overreaction followed by a statistically significant and economic meaningful reversal. Although most of the news sentiment measures induce such price patterns, the strength of the intraday overreaction and subsequent reversal depends on the news source. In addition, the intraday impact as well as the overreaction is substantially stronger on trading days where information uncertainty is low. These results put pressure on the validity of short-term market efficiency, but they may be consistent with longer-term efficiency, because the triggered overreaction reverses and the prices may reach its new fundamental value after a few trading days.
Author: David Dietachmair
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Taking into account the growing participation of boundedly rational speculators and financial investors in commodity futures markets and the high relevance of price developments for different institutions and the whole macro economy, the main objective of this thesis is to provide knowledge about whether the sentiment of commodity-related media articles is able to influence copper and crude oil futures returns. Regarding this question, robust evidence is found that a shock in news sentiment induces a copper and crude oil price pattern characterized by a statistically significant and economic meaningful intraday overreaction followed by a statistically significant and economic meaningful reversal. Although most of the news sentiment measures induce such price patterns, the strength of the intraday overreaction and subsequent reversal depends on the news source. In addition, the intraday impact as well as the overreaction is substantially stronger on trading days where information uncertainty is low. These results put pressure on the validity of short-term market efficiency, but they may be consistent with longer-term efficiency, because the triggered overreaction reverses and the prices may reach its new fundamental value after a few trading days.
Author: Bassam Fattouh
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781907555442
Category : Petroleum products
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Christina Kolerus
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475541066
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China’s economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impact differs across commodity markets, with industrial production shocks having a substantial impact on metals and crude oil prices and less so on food prices. The size of the impact on the prices of specific commodities varies with China’s footprint in the market for those commodities; the empirical estimates indicate that, over a one-year horizon, a 1 percent increase in industrial production leads to a 5–7 percent rise in metals and fuel prices. The surprise component in Chinese industrial production announcements has a bearing on commodity prices that is comparable in magnitude to that of industrial production surprises in the United States, and this impact is much larger when global risk aversion is high.
Author: Tony Klein
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1800611927
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 508
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Book Description
Modern Finance and Risk Management is dedicated to our colleague, academic mentor, and adviser Professor Hermann Locarek-Junge. During his academic career, Hermann Locarek-Junge published several important contributions to the field of risk management and portfolio management and served as the chairman and board member of the German Finance Association (DGF) and the Data Science Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation).A short foreword by the mentors of Hermann Locarek-Junge and an introduction by the editors mark the beginning of the Festschrift. The first section on Modern Finance includes chapters on asset management, entrepreneurship, and behavioural finance. The second section on Modern Risk Management contains seven contributions covering considerations of risk measurement, risk management, and regulation. Finally, the third section includes topics on commodities and energy finance.This Festschrift comprises 20 original contributions of notable scholars in finance who have worked with Hermann Locarek-Junge over the last four decades. Due to numerous connections to practice and applications, Modern Finance and Risk Management is relevant and attractive not only to academics and researchers but also to practitioners in industry and banking.
Author: George Kleinman
Publisher: FT Press
ISBN: 0133367495
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 530
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Book Description
As an asset class, commodities are now as important as stocks and bonds – and with rapid growth in demand, profit opportunities in commodities are larger than ever. But today’s computer-driven markets are volatile and chaotic. Fortunately, you can profit consistently – and this tutorial will show you how. Building on more than 30 years of market success, George Kleinman introduces powerful trend-based techniques for consistently trading in your “sweet spot” for profits. Kleinman reveals exactly how the commodities markets have changed – and how you can use consistent discipline to avoid “shark-infested waters” and manage the market’s most dangerous risks. Ideal for every beginning-to-intermediate level trader, speculator, and investor, this guide begins with the absolute basics, and takes you all the way to highly-sophisticated strategies. You’ll discover how futures and options trading work today, how trading psychology impacts commodity markets even in an age of high-frequency computer trading, and how to avoid the latest pitfalls. Kleinman offers extensively updated coverage of electronic trading, today’s contracts, and advanced trading techniques – including his exclusive, powerful Pivot Indicator approach. Three previous editions of this tutorial have become international best-sellers. But the game has changed. Win it the way it’s played right now, with Trading Commodities and Financial Futures, Fourth Edition.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Barron's national business and financial weekly
Languages : en
Pages : 1626
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Book Description
Author: Kaoru Tone
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118946707
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 579
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Book Description
A key resource and framework for assessing the performance of competing entities, including forecasting models Advances in DEA Theory and Applications provides a much-needed framework for assessing the performance of competing entities with special emphasis on forecasting models. It helps readers to determine the most appropriate methodology in order to make the most accurate decisions for implementation. Written by a noted expert in the field, this text provides a review of the latest advances in DEA theory and applications to the field of forecasting. Designed for use by anyone involved in research in the field of forecasting or in another application area where forecasting drives decision making, this text can be applied to a wide range of contexts, including education, health care, banking, armed forces, auditing, market research, retail outlets, organizational effectiveness, transportation, public housing, and manufacturing. This vital resource: Explores the latest developments in DEA frameworks for the performance evaluation of entities such as public or private organizational branches or departments, economic sectors, technologies, and stocks Presents a novel area of application for DEA; namely, the performance evaluation of forecasting models Promotes the use of DEA to assess the performance of forecasting models in a wide area of applications Provides rich, detailed examples and case studies Advances in DEA Theory and Applications includes information on a balanced benchmarking tool that is designed to help organizations examine their assumptions about their productivity and performance.
Author: Helyette Geman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470687738
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 479
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Book Description
The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV
Author: Peter M. Robinson
Publisher: Advanced Texts in Econometrics
ISBN: 9780199257300
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 396
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Book Description
Long memory time series are characterized by a strong dependence between distant events.
Author: Todd Moss
Publisher: CGD Books
ISBN: 1933286695
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 190
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Book Description
Oil to Cash explores one option to help countries with new oil revenue avoid the so-called resource curse: just give the money directly to citizens. A universal, transparent, and regular cash transfer would not only provide a concrete benefit to regular people, but would also create powerful incentives for citizens to hold their government accountable. Oil to Cash details how and where this idea could work and how policymakers can learn from the experiences with cash transfers in places like Mexico, Mongolia, and Alaska.
