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Author: Sophia Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475563175
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Author: Sophia Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475563175
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Author: Pooja Lakhanpal
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813369736
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 396
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Book Description
The book contributes to the growing literature pertaining to empirical and policy issues in international trade, foreign capital flows and issues in finance, implications for India and emerging economies related to trade and development interface, and analysis of sector level growth and development in India. Further, the focus is on the policy aspects of these themes and their role in fostering economic development in the context of India and other emerging market economies. The discourse focuses mainly on empirical work and econometric details. The relevant issues are investigated using state of the art techniques such as gravity models, panel co-integration, generalized hyperbolic distributions, SEM, FMOLS and Probit models. In addition, detailed literature survey, discussions on data availability, issues related to statistical estimation techniques and a theoretical background, ensure that each chapter significantly contributes to the ever-growing literature on international trade and capital flows. The readers shall find an engaging dialogue on the crucial role played by policy and the trade-capital flows-growth experience of emerging economies. The book is relevant for those who are interested in contemporary issues in trade, growth and finance as well as for students of advanced econometrics who may benefit from the analytical and econometric exposition. The empirical evidences provided here could serve as ready reference for academicians, researchers and policy makers, particularly in emerging economies facing similar challenges.
Author: John W. Kensinger
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1787432718
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 249
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Book Description
The volume first investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on equity values in emerging economies as compared with developed economies. Next it affirms the efficiency of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator electricity exchange. Finally it investigates efforts to stimulate emerging nations around the world.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148437679X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 215
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Book Description
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
Author: Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812770852
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 929079819X
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226278875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 663
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Book Description
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author: Rudiger Dornbusch
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262540605
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 490
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Book Description
Collected for the first time in Exchange Rates and Inflation, twenty-two articles are gathered in four parts covering exchange rate theory, special topics in exchange rate economics, equilibrium real exchange rates, and inflation and stabilization.
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1933019158
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Author: Mario La Torre
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030651339
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 317
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Book Description
This book sheds light on current issues in sustainable finance through an in-depth analysis and discussion of relevant sustainable products and sustainable initiatives of several financial institutions. This edited collection critically presents and discusses several relevant theoretical issues, case studies of innovative financial products and sustainable institutions, as well as empirically investigates issues related to both financial and social performance. The book focuses on several innovative products across the sustainable finance ecosystem, including social impact bonds, crowdfunding and green bonds. Similarly, the book spotlights the sustainable investment strategies of institutions ranging from family foundations to asset managers.
