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Author: João Tovar Jalles
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555784
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Finally, we use the synthetic control method to illustrate how the transition from flexible to fully fixed exchange rate under the Euro impacted negatively fiscal discipline in European countries. Our results are robust to a number of important sensitivity checks, including different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline, and sub-sample analysis.
Author: João Tovar Jalles
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555784
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Finally, we use the synthetic control method to illustrate how the transition from flexible to fully fixed exchange rate under the Euro impacted negatively fiscal discipline in European countries. Our results are robust to a number of important sensitivity checks, including different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline, and sub-sample analysis.
Author: Makram el- Shagi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Yan Sun
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451850123
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Conventional wisdom has held that a fixed exchange rate regime induces more fiscal discipline, but Tornell and Velasco (1995, 1998) argue the opposite. Using a dynamic model with fragmented fiscal policymaking, this paper evaluates the two arguments in a single framework and shows that (1) future punishment against fiscal laxity exists under both fixed and flexible regimes; (2) fiscal authorities have a greater incentive to spend more today under fixed rates than under flexible rates; (3) in the presence of both factors above, fixed rates will induce more fiscal discipline only if the future punishment is sufficiently stronger than under flexible rates; and (4) neither fixed nor flexible rates could resolve the structural distortions caused by fragmented policymaking, and fiscal centralization needs to be undertaken to strengthen fiscal discipline.
Author: Rupa Duttagupta
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper assesses the nature of fiscal discipline under alternative exchange rate regimes. First, it shows in a simple theoretical framework that fiscal agencies under a currency union with a fixed exchange rate can have the largest incentive to overspend or "free-ride" (compared to those under other exchange rate regimes) owing to their ability to spread the costs of overspending in terms of the inflation tax across both time-given the fixed exchange rate-and space-given the currency union. In contrast, such free-riding behavior does not arise under flexible regimes owing to the immediate inflationary impact of spending. Next, empirically, it shows that fiscal stances in countries with fixed pegs and currency unions regime demonstrate greater free-riding behavior than countries with more flexible regimes in 15 Caribbean countries during 1983-2004.
Author: Aaron Tornell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
In recent years the conventional wisdom has held that fixed rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates. In this paper we show that this wisdom need not hold in a standard model in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority. The claim that fixed rates induce more discipline stresses that sustained adoption of lax fiscal policies must eventually lead to an exhaustion of reserves and thus to a politically costly collapse of the peg. Hence, under fixed rates bad behavior today leads to punishment tomorrow. Under flexible rates bad behavior has costs as well. The difference is in the intertemporal distribution of these costs: flexible rates allow the effects of unsound fiscal policies to manifest themselves immediately through movements in the exchange rate. Hence, bad behavior today leads to punishment today. If fiscal authorities are impatient, flexible rates - by forcing the costs to be paid up-front - provide more fiscal discipline and higher welfare for the representative private agent. The recent experience of Sub- Saharan countries supplies some preliminary evidence that matches the predictions of the model.
Author: Aaron Tornell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Author: Alexander Bremann
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668735395
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 2,3, University of applied sciences, Munich, language: English, abstract: The value of a nation’s currency and its exchange rate is a key indicator for the performance of an economy’s import and export. This assignment evaluates the different impacts of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate, the following research also draws attention to the fact that economists have had mixed findings of the effects of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate. The use of secondary research and the AA-DD model will further enhance the various factors that are responsible to appreciate or depreciate a currency. The results of this assignment show that; fixed and floating exchange rates, as well as the MPC score, have significant impacts on the efficiency of macroeconomic policies altering the exchange rate. Macroeconomic policies trigger disposable income, prices and interest rates within an economy, which consequently affects the foreign exchange market leading to a change in the exchange rate. Especially in the field of a floating exchange rate economy, the impacts of fiscal but also monetary policies can be shown, fixed exchange rates disable economies to use monetary policies due to the fact that these will with high certainty have an impact on the exchange rate.
Author: Kady Keita
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper examines how fiscal rules, exchange rate regimes, and institutional quality affect the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy (how government spending responds to fluctuations in gross domestic product). The analysis is performed on a panel of 153 advanced, emerging, and developing countries over 1993-2015 using local Gaussian-weighted ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimators. The findings show that the adoption of fiscal rules alone is not sufficient to promote countercyclical fiscal policy and should be combined with strong institutions. Moreover, fiscal rules seem to limit procyclicality, especially in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes rather than in countries with fixed exchange rates. The analysis also finds that the disciplining effect of fiscal rules depends on the type of rule.
Author: Enrique Alberola Ila
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Currency boards
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Author: Bijan B. Aghevli
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange administration
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper addresses analytical aspects of exchange rate policy and emphasizes the relationship among exchange rate flexibility, financial discipline, and international competitiveness.
