The Effect of Policymaker Reputation and Credibility on Public Expectations PDF Download
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Author: Jim Granato
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Author: Jim Granato
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451971818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on data for the interest rate differential between France and Germany and find support for our hypothesis.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic journals
Languages : en
Pages : 578
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Author: Patrick Bernhagen
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134057997
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 282
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Book Description
This book analyzes the influence of business in democratic politics. Advice from business actors regularly carries more weight with policymakers than other interests because it refers to the core of the state-market nexus in democratic capitalism: the consequences for voters and policymakers of harming business and the economy. The book examines th
Author: U. Hoffmeyer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Political science
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Rumen Kostadinov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513546120
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment. Having announced a plan, the Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief that the Central bank is committed to the plan. Some plans are harder to sustain: the planner recognizes that paving out future grounds with temptation leads the way for a negative drift of reputation in equilibrium. Plans that successfully create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible. When announcing the disinflation plan, the planner takes into account these anticipated interactions. We find that, even in the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy.
Author: Jim Granato
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139450956
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This book's central theme is that a policymaker's role is to enhance the public's ability to coordinate their price information, price expectations, and economic activities. This role is fulfilled when policymakers maintain inflation stability. Inflation persists less when an implicit or explicit inflation target is met. Granato and Wong argue that inflation persistence is reduced when the public substitutes the prespecified inflation target for past inflation. A by-product of this co-ordination process is greater economic stability. In particular, inflation stability contributes to greater economic output stability, including the potential for the simultaneous reduction of both inflation and output variability - inflation-output co-stabilization (IOCS). Granato and Wong use historical, formal, and applied statistical analysis of business-cycle performance in the United States for the 1960 to 2000 period. They find that during periods when policymakers emphasize inflation stability, inflation uncertainty and persistence were reduced.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Alex Cukierman
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262031981
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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Book Description
This book brings together a large body of Cukierman's research and integrates it with recent developments in the political economy of monetary policy.
Author: Mr.David Hauner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451865651
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
References to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature and financial markets, even though it is not directly observable. The case of the EU new member states (NMS)-emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally considered to have higher policy credibility-provides a unique experiment to assess the effects of credibility on sovereign credit. This paper examines the impact of EU accession on three key variables that can reflect in varying degrees policy credibility: sovereign ratings, foreign currency spreads, and local currency yields. The results suggest that the NMS appear to have enjoyed higher credibility compared to their peers.
