The Crisis in Forecasting and the Emergence of the "prospective" Approach PDF Download
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Author: Michel Godet
Publisher: Pergamon
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
Chapter 7: Air transport scenarios for the Paris region up to 1990.
Author: Michel Godet
Publisher: Pergamon
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
Chapter 7: Air transport scenarios for the Paris region up to 1990.
Author: Robert H. Samet
Publisher: 4-Scene Development Corpora
ISBN: 1439214344
Category : Change
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
This highly readable study explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system, with a new world view that out-ranges United Nations reference scenarios to beyond 2150.
Author: Nicholas Rescher
Publisher: SUNY Press
ISBN: 9780791435533
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Author: Martin Wachs
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351311344
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 571
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Book Description
Some planners limit discussions of ethics to simple, though important, questions about the propriety of their daily activities. This approach to ethics restricts discussion of professional ethics to the propriety of everyday social and professional relationships. It ignores the broader ethical content of planning practice, methods, and policies. While narrow definitions of ethical behavior can easily preoccupy public officials and professional associations, they divert attention from more profound moral issues.Martin Wachs argues that ethical issues are implicit in nearly all planning decisions. For illustrative and educational reasons, it is useful to divide ethics in planning into four distinct categories. The first category includes the moral implications of bureaucratic practices and rules of behavior regarding clients and supervisors. The second category includes ethical judgments which planners make in exercising their "administrative discretion." More complex, and represented by a third category, are the moral implications of methods and the ethical content of criteria built into planning techniques and models. The final type represents the basic choices which society makes - those inherent in the consideration of major policy alternatives.Ethics in Planning contains a variety of representative papers to capture the current state of thinking. This book will be important as a text for survey classes in professional ethics given by university planning programs. It should also supplement short courses in planning ethics for practicing professionals and provide source materials for discussions of planning ethics sponsored by local chapters of the American Planning Association and similar organizations. It gathers together exemplary and critical works, thus it will also interest individual planners in a field that only continues to grow in recognition and importance.
Author: V. Gardiner
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482275600
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
This book is an outcome of the workshop on water demand forecasting in 1985. It summarises the 'state-of-the-art' in water demand forecasting, and identifies some of its links with environmental issues. The book discusses some of the issues raised in more detail and provides case studies.
Author: Brita Schwarz
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 042971680X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 122
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Book Description
This book presents three examples of futures research that illustrate the problems of applying knowledge during the course of a futures research project, the ways in which different methodologies interact, and various means of combining and adapting methodological tools and techniques.
Author: Willa Marie Bruce
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 042998118X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
This anthology will be appropriate for administrative ethics classes and professional thinking in public administration at both the masters and doctoral levels. It is a collection of administrative ethics articles published in journals of the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) from 1941 (the earliest publication) through 1983 (the year that the first ASPA Code of Ethics was established). The articles are organized by themes of enduring importance to the field in order to provide graduate students with ready access to the classic works on ethics in public administration. Reading this collection will enhance student's knowledge and skills to think and act ethically and contribute to their ability to view current practices in light of traditional perspectives. The ASPA Classics volume serves to bridge the practice of public policy and administration with the empirical research base that has accrued and the models for practice that may be deduced from the research
Author: Daniel Frei
Publisher: BRILL
ISBN: 9780792301080
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 414
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Book Description
This book provides the reader with a comprehensive study of the future perspectives of the international order after the collapse of the Evil Empire. The first part of the book reviews the likely evolution of the international system in the years to come, covering the global implications of the end of the East--West order (political, economic & strategic impact); the second part studies the specificities of the situation in Europe, the U.S.A., Asia, & the rest of the world, as well as the role of some international organizations. The book addresses the basic questions facing us since the collapse of the socialist system: What has been the impact of the collapse of the East--West order on the international system? How will various regions & actors be affected by these changes? How will they react to them? What will be the most important challenges & threats in the future international system, & how can we prepare for them? Gathered together in this volume are contributions from some of the most eminent experts from the academic community as well as from governmental & international organizations, making it a reference book for students of international affairs as well as policy-makers & corporate managers.
Author: Ervin Laszlo
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483152758
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 179
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Book Description
The United States, Canada and the New International Economic Order examines obstacles as well as opportunities associated with efforts to create a more equitable New International Economic Order (NIEO), with emphasis on the United States and Canada. The responses of diverse segments of the North American population to demands for a NIEO are analyzed, along with their perceptions concerning international economic cooperation, national economic prospects, and the problems of Third World development. This volume is comprised of five chapters and begins with a discussion on the importance of the NIEO to the U.S. economy, together with the prospective impact of some Third World objectives on the U.S. economy. Factors that influence U.S. responses to the NIEO are also considered. The following chapters explore the role of the U.S. Congress in the NIEO, paying particular attention to its support for official development assistance; the relationship between the U.S. labor movement and the NIEO; and Americans' perceptions and attitudes toward the NIEO. The final chapter deals with the response of the principal sectors of Canadian society to the NIEO. This book will be a useful resource for economists and economic policymakers.
Author: John S. Carman
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483104494
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 197
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Book Description
Obstacles to Mineral Development: A Pragmatic View covers the most common obstacles to mineral development in the developing countries. The text also encompasses the factors that dilute the value of foreign assistance, with special reference to mineral exploration; and the past as well as prospective role of the United Nations in overcoming these obstacles and, in particular, in avoiding some of the pitfalls of bilateral assistance. The book also presents case studies of specific obstacles, including resource depletion; taxation of mining enterprises; mining taxation policy in Canada; the prevention of ghost-mining towns in arid or desert zones; and small-scale mining in the developing world. The book will prove invaluable to people engaged in all phases of resource development.
