The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs PDF Download
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Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849664
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849664
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262522052
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.
Author: Pierre-Richard Agenor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates at the inception of exchange-rate-based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on an optimizing model of a small open economy facing imperfect world capital markets. A reduction in the devaluation rate is shown to have a positive impact on real interest rates. By contrast, a program characterized by an initial reduction in the devaluation rate and a perceived future increase in government spending has an ambiguous effect - which depends in particular on the degree of credibility of the fiscal policy stance.
Author: Mr.Guillermo Calvo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849915
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513569406
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691165394
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 792
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Book Description
The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developing countries operate today. Describing the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, the book features expanded coverage of public debt and the management of capital inflows as well as new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency unions, and the choice of an exchange-rate regime. A new chapter on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with financial frictions has been added to reflect how the financial crisis has reshaped our thinking on the role of such frictions in generating and propagating real and financial shocks. The book also discusses the role of macroprudential regulation, both independently and through its interactions with monetary policy, in preserving financial and macroeconomic stability. Now in its fourth edition, Development Macroeconomics remains the definitive textbook on the macroeconomics of developing countries. The most authoritative book on the subject—now fully revised and expanded Features new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, and much more Comes with online supplements on informal financial markets, stabilization programs, the solution of DSGE models with financial frictions, and exchange rate crises
Author: Jacob Frenkel
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135043493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.
Author: Miguel Alberto Kiguel
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
Disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve tradeoff in the medium run. Instead of having a sharp recession in the early stage of stabilization, there often is an initial expansion of output followed by a recession and balance of payments difficulties. This pattern is related to programs that use the exchange rate as an instrument of disinflation.
Author: Alberto F. Ades
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Danmark
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
In high inflation economies exchange- rate- based stabilizations typically start with a boom, with the recession coming later. In contrast, in similar programs in the moderate inflation European economies, the recession generally appears upfront. When such programs result in a boom, it is driven by different forces than in the high inflation economies.
Author: Mr.Michael Mussa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852746
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.
