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Author: Magda Kandil
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
Author: Magda Kandil
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Magda E. Kandil
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451859355
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
The paper examines the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and price in developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel leads to output contraction and price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency depreciation. In contrast, the reduction in net exports determines output contraction without reducing price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency appreciation.
Author: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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This research presents first empirical time series evidence of the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on Britain's trade balances with her 8 trading partners. Recent advances in time series and cointegration analysis have allowed for the estimation of the nonlinear effects of currency depreciations on countries' trade balances. To this extent, we employ the nonlinear version of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and error correction methodologies to examine whether pound appreciations affect trade differently than do pound depreciations. We use monthly trade data which runs from 1998M1 to 2015M11 to capture more robustly the asymmetric impacts of exchange rate changes on trade balances. Econometric results from the non-ARDL procedures reveal that there exist long-run relationships in the case of UK-Canada, UK-Germany, UK-Italy, UK-Japan, UK-Korea, and UK-US trade balance models. Nevertheless, we did not find any long-run relationship in the case of UK-Spain and UK-Norway trade balance models. We also present empirical evidence for the existence of long-run asymmetries of exchange rates in the case of UK-Germany, UK-Italy, UK-Korea, and UK-Japan trade balance models. This paper also discusses policy implications of the empirical results as well as offering policy recommendations.
Author: Robin C. Sickles
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489980083
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
From the Introduction: This volume is dedicated to the remarkable career of Professor Peter Schmidt and the role he has played in mentoring us, his PhD students. Peter’s accomplishments are legendary among his students and the profession. Each of the papers in this Festschrift is a research work executed by a former PhD student of Peter’s, from his days at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to his time at Michigan State University. Most of the papers were presented at The Conference in Honor of Peter Schmidt, June 30 - July 2, 2011. The conference was largely attended by his former students and one current student, who traveled from as far as Europe and Asia to honor Peter. This was a conference to celebrate Peter’s contribution to our contributions. By “our contributions” we mean the research papers that make up this Festschrift and the countless other publications by his students represented and not represented in this volume. Peter’s students may have their families to thank for much that is positive in their lives. However, if we think about it, our professional lives would not be the same without the lessons and the approaches to decision making that we learned from Peter. We spent our days together at Peter’s conference and the months since reminded of these aspects of our personalities and life goals that were enhanced, fostered, and nurtured by the very singular experiences we have had as Peter’s students. We recognized in 2011 that it was unlikely we would all be together again to celebrate such a wonderful moment in ours and Peter’s lives and pledged then to take full advantage of it. We did then, and we are now in the form of this volume.
Author: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Research on the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance is now moving in a new direction by incorporating nonlinear dynamic adjustment of the exchange rate and by using a nonlinear approach to error-correction modeling and cointegration. Using these advances, researchers find not only more evidence of the J-curve effect, but also new evidence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance. We contribute to this line of research by using monthly trade flow data from 61 two-digit industries that trade between Malaysia and Thailand, and show that not only does currency depreciation have favorable effects on the trade balance of more industries, but the long-run effects are asymmetric in 26 out of 61 cases. In line with current literature, our nonlinear model performs much better than the linear model when industry level data are used.
Author: Gordon M. Bodnar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513534602
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
Author: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Currency depreciation is said to have positive or negative effects on domestic production. Previous studies that tried to address this issue using Australian data have been inconclusive at best but mostly showed no effects. One common feature of all studies is that they have assumed that the effects of exchange rate changes are symmetric. In this paper, we use the concept of partial sum and separate appreciations from depreciations to test whether the effects are symmetric or asymmetric. Application of the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) reveals that indeed the effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Australian dollar are asymmetric in the short run as well as in the long run. While in the short run both appreciations and depreciations affect Australian domestic production, only effects of appreciation last into the long run, a unique finding.
Author: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate continues to attract attention by international economists and has entered into new territory, mostly due to advances in econometric methods. The introduction of asymmetric error-correction modelling and asymmetric cointegration using the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, Springer, 2014, 281) as compared to the symmetric and linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 289) has led us in a new direction to discover relatively better results. We apply these methods to the bilateral trade balance model of each of the 68 industries that trade between India and the USA. The nonlinear approach not only provides more support to the J-curve effect, but also yields support in favour of short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in most of the industries.
Author: Helinä Laakkonen
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789513933678
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
