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Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262193689
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 554
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Book Description
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262193689
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 554
Get Book Here
Book Description
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262035022
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
Explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression.
Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0465097618
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 465
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Book Description
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118547934
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 483
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Book Description
Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory. Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context. Praise from early readers “Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden “Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108563309
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 503
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Book Description
Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030464741
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author: Frank C. Keil
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262112499
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
These essays address basic questions about explanation: how do explanatory capacities develop, are there kinds of explanation do explanations correspond to domains of knowledge, why do we seek explanations, and how central are causes to explanation?
Author: Frederick Hoffman
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN: 0821806114
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
There exists a history of great expectations and large investments involving artificial intelligence (AI). There are also notable shortfalls and memorable disappointments. One major controversy regarding AI is just how mathematical a field it is or should be. This text includes contributions that examine the connections between AI and mathematics, demonstrating the potential for mathematical applications and exposing some of the more mathematical areas within AI. The goal is to stimulate interest in people who can contribute to the field or use its results. Included in the work by M. Newborn on the famous Deep BLue chess match. He discusses highly mathematical techniques involving graph theory, combinatorics and probability and statistics. G. Shafer offers his development of probability through probability trees with some of the results appearing here for the first time. M. Golumbic treats temporal reasoning with ties to the famous Frame Problem. His contribution involves logic, combinatorics and graph theory and leads to two chapters with logical themes. H. Kirchner explains how ordering techniques in automated reasoning systems make deduction more efficient. Constraint logic programming is discussed by C. Lassez, who shows its intimate ties to linear programming with crucial theorems going back to Fourier. V. Nalwa's work provides a brief tour of computer vision, tying it to mathematics - from combinatorics, probability and geometry to partial differential equations. All authors are gifted expositors and are current contributors to the field. The wide scope of the volume includes research problems, research tools and good motivational material for teaching.
Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471461717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 438
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Book Description
Provides a foundation for probability based on game theory rather than measure theory. A strong philosophical approach with practical applications. Presents in-depth coverage of classical probability theory as well as new theory.
Author: Howard Silverstone
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470879599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341
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Book Description
Fully revised, the proven primer on forensic accounting with all-new cases A must-have reference for every business professional, Forensic Accounting and Fraud Investigation for Non-Experts, Third Edition is a necessary tool for those interested in understanding how financial fraud occurs and what to do when you find or suspect it within your organization. With comprehensive coverage, it provides insightful advice on where an organization is most susceptible to fraud. Updated with new cases and new material on technology tools in forensic accounting Covers the core accounting, investigative, and legal aspects of forensic accounting for professionals new to the field Covers investigative and legal issues along with accounting schemes Written by a team of recognized experts in the field of forensic accounting, Forensic Accounting and Fraud Investigation for Non-Experts, Third Edition is essential reading for accountants and investigators requiring the most up-to-date methods in dealing with financial fraud within their organizations.
