Tactical Industry Allocation and Model Uncertainty PDF Download
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Author: Manuel Ammann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on industry return predictability within the U.S. stock market in the presence of model uncertainty. The posterior analysis shows the importance of inflation and earnings yield in predicting industry returns. The out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is, in general, superior to that of other statistical model selection criteria. However, the out-of-sample forecasting power of a naive iid forecast is similar to the Bayesian forecast. A variance decomposition into model risk, estimation risk, and forecast error shows that model risk is less important than estimation risk.
Author: Manuel Ammann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on industry return predictability within the U.S. stock market in the presence of model uncertainty. The posterior analysis shows the importance of inflation and earnings yield in predicting industry returns. The out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is, in general, superior to that of other statistical model selection criteria. However, the out-of-sample forecasting power of a naive iid forecast is similar to the Bayesian forecast. A variance decomposition into model risk, estimation risk, and forecast error shows that model risk is less important than estimation risk.
Author: Cengiz Kahraman
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814417750
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1373
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Book Description
FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 10th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 2386
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Book Description
Author: Gary S. Lynch
Publisher: Archway Publishing
ISBN: 1480839388
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
Risk and uncertainty may sound scary, but todays best business leaders are navigating both to gain strategic advantage over competitorsand you can, too. This guide for business leaders examines risk and opportunity through the lens of some of the worlds most respected visionaries, including Howard Schultz, Andy Grove, Peter Huntsman, John Krafcik, Peter Leibinger, Doug Hepper, and many more. These visionaries looked beyond financial performance to see opportunitiesand they did so by understanding uncertainty. Then, they decisively acted to create measurable results that coincided with the future they envisioned. Find out how they did it, and learn how to: identify, define, and convert uncertainty into value; become more opportunistic when facing uncertainty; develop the skill to spot where advantages are likely to emerge; and create an environment where managers and leaders complement each other. Filled with case studies on companies such as Hyundai, Starbucks, Roche, and Intel, this guide delivers proven ways to create value and leverage uncertainty. It is the culmination of a decade of research and interaction with dozens of companies and growth leaders who prove that pursuing a market driven strategy to navigating uncertainty will gain measurable market advantage.
Author: Weifei Hu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031492080
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 282
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Book Description
This book introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistical, and reliability concepts, the classical methods of uncertainty quantification and analytical reliability analysis, and the state-of-the-art approaches of design optimization under uncertainty (e.g., reliability-based design optimization and robust design optimization). The topics include basic concepts of probability and distributions, uncertainty quantification using probabilistic methods, classical reliability analysis methods, time-variant reliability analysis methods, fundamentals of deterministic design optimization, reliability-based design optimization, robust design optimization, other methods of design optimization under uncertainty, and engineering applications of design optimization under uncertainty.
Author: Bo Hu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642200095
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 664
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Book Description
This book contains selected papers from the symposium "Operations Research 2010" which was held from September 1-3, 2010 at the "Universität der Bundeswehr München", Germany. The international conference, which also serves as the annual meeting of the German Operations Research Society (GOR), attracted more than 600 participants from more than thirty countries. The general theme "Mastering Complexity" focusses on a natural component of the globalization process. Financial markets, traffic systems, network topologies and, last but not least, energy resource management, all contain complex behaviour and economic interdependencies which necessitate a scientific solution. Operations Research is one of the key instruments to model, simulate and analyze such systems. In the process of developing optimal solutions, suitable heuristics and efficient procedures are some of the challenges which are discussed in this volume.
Author: Jarrod W. Wilcox
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781883249540
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Investing by the Numbers provides a framework for using scientific principles to problem solve for the pitfalls that inevitably occur when implementing financial theories into practice.
Author: Jiuping Xu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447145992
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 1030
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Book Description
Welcome to the proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM2012) held from November 11 to 14, 2012 at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan and supported by Sichuan University (Chengdu, China), Quaid-i-Azam University (Islamabad, Pakistan) and The National Natural Science Foundation of China. The International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management is the annual conference organized by the International Society of Management Science and Engineering Management. The goals of the Conference are to foster international research collaborations in Management Science and Engineering Management as well as to provide a forum to present current research results. The papers are classified into 8 sections: Computer and Networks, Information Technology, Decision Support System, Industrial Engineering, Supply Chain Management, Project Management, Manufacturing and Ecological Engineering. The key issues of the sixth ICMSEM cover various areas in MSEM, such as Decision Support System, Computational Mathematics, Information Systems, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Relationship Management, Scheduling and Control, Data Warehousing and Data Mining, Electronic Commerce, Neural Networks, Stochastic models and Simulation, Heuristics Algorithms, Risk Control, and Carbon Credits.
Author: Wai Lee
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781883249724
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
Asset allocation has long been viewed as a safe bet for reducing risk in a portfolio. Asset allocators strive to buy when prices are low and sell when prices rise. Tactical asset allocation (TAA) practitioners tend to emphasize shorter-term adjustments, reducing exposure when recent market performance has been good, and increasing exposure in a slipping market (in contrast to dynamic asset allocation, or portfolio insurance). As interest in this technique continues to grow, J.P. Morgan's Wai Lee provides comprehensive coverage of the analytical tools needed to successfully implement and monitor tactical asset allocation.
Author: Stephan Frühling
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317817850
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
