Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts PDF full book. Access full book title Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts by Ms.Eva Jenkner. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484399137
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Get Book Here
Book Description
Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.
Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484399137
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Get Book Here
Book Description
Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 446
Get Book Here
Book Description
This dissertation examines the constraints credit markets impose on subnational fiscal policies, focusing on the role and limits of fiscal federal structures in mediating this relationship. The conventional wisdom claims credit markets do not constrain the policies of governments that rely heavily on central transfers. Co-financing is believed to limit market discipline by signalling a national incentive in bailing out fiscally distressed units. I argue that the effects of transfer dependence are overstated and that if anything, dependence hardens market constraints. Dependence not only fails to send compelling bailout signals, but it also harms subnational creditworthiness by restricting governments' autonomy to raise additional revenues during periods of fiscal distress. I find clear links between market participants' bailout expectations and other aspects of the fiscal federal environment, including subnational responsibility for politically sensitive social services, formal national commitments to redistributing risk and wealth across territorial units, and heavy concentrations of national population, output, and debt in a limited number of territorial jurisdictions. However, I caution against overstating the importance of transfer dependence and other fiscal federal factors. Most variation in market constraints is driven by national-level factors in general and investors' relative expectations of sovereign default in particular. Extreme movements in sovereign risk can induce booms and busts in subnational lending, outcomes that intergovernmental institutions only weakly mediate. I substantiate these claims using a range of quantitative and qualitative data and methods, including cross-national statistical analyses of credit ratings and bailout probabilities assigned by major credit rating agencies; case studies of subnational credit conditions in Canada and Germany; and interviews with regional treasurers, underwriters, and investors in regional bonds in these same countries. The findings have implications for the relationship between financial markets and government policy autonomy and the macroeconomic stability of multi-tiered systems of government.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Author: Marcel Fratzscher
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bailouts (Government policy)
Languages : en
Pages : 49
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper analyses the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. Using structural VAR with daily financial markets data for 2003-13, the analysis confirms two-way causality between shocks to sovereign risk and bank risk, with the former being overall more important in explaining bank risk, than vice versa. The paper focuses specifically on the impact of non-standard monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank and on the effects of bank bailout policies by national governments. Testing specific hypotheses formulated in the literature, we find that bank bailout policies have reduced solvency risk in the banking sector, but partly at the expense of raising the credit risk of sovereigns. By contrast, monetary policy was in most, but not all cases effective in lowering credit risk among both sovereigns and banks. Finally, we find spillover effects in particular from sovereigns in the euro area periphery to the core countries.
Author: Viral V. Acharya
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 59
Get Book Here
Book Description
We show that nancial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benets the economy by ameliorating the under-investment problem of the nancial sector. However, increasing taxation of the non-nancial sector to fund the bailout may be inecient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign's creditworthiness. This deterioration feeds back to the nancial sector, reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings as well as increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks. We provide empirical evidence for this two-way feedback between nancial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the Eurozone countries and their banks for 2007-11. We show that the announcement of nancial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate, unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads; however, post-bailouts there emerged a signi- cant co-movement between bank CDS and sovereign CDS, even after controlling for banks' equity performance, the latter being consistent with an eect of the quality of sovereign guarantees on bank credit risk.
Author: Viral V. Acharya
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Abstract: We show that financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benefits the economy by ameliorating the under-investment problem of the financial sector. However, increasing taxation of the non-financial sector to fund the bailout may be inefficient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign's creditworthiness. This deterioration feeds back onto the financial sector, reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings and increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks. We provide empirical evidence for this two-way feedback between financial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the Eurozone countries for 2007-10. We show that the announcement of financial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate, unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads; however, post-bailouts there emerged a significant co-movement between bank CDS and sovereign CDS, even after controlling for banks' equity performance, the latter being consistent with an effect of the quality of sovereign guarantees on bank credit risk.
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
Get Book Here
Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342434
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400831725
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 512
Get Book Here
Book Description
The acclaimed New York Times bestselling history of financial crises Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing, and recovering their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, “this time is different”—claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents and eight centuries, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises—including government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to the subprime mortgage catastrophe. Reinhart and Rogoff provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. A remarkable history of financial folly, This Time Is Different will influence financial and economic thinking and policy for decades to come.
