Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails PDF Download
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Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781544508054
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781544508054
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Author: Massimo Morini
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470977744
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 452
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Book Description
A guide to the validation and risk management of quantitative models used for pricing and hedging Whereas the majority of quantitative finance books focus on mathematics and risk management books focus on regulatory aspects, this book addresses the elements missed by this literature--the risks of the models themselves. This book starts from regulatory issues, but translates them into practical suggestions to reduce the likelihood of model losses, basing model risk and validation on market experience and on a wide range of real-world examples, with a high level of detail and precise operative indications.
Author: Alireza Javaheri
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118161025
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 222
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Book Description
Today?s traders want to know when volatility is a sign that the sky is falling (and they should stay out of the market), and when it is a sign of a possible trading opportunity. Inside Volatility Arbitrage can help them do this. Author and financial expert Alireza Javaheri uses the classic approach to evaluating volatility -- time series and financial econometrics -- in a way that he believes is superior to methods presently used by market participants. He also suggests that there may be "skewness" trading opportunities that can be used to trade the markets more profitably. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Inside Volatility Arbitrage will help traders discover when "skewness" may present valuable trading opportunities as well as why it can be so profitable.
Author: Steven P. Greiner
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118421418
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
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Book Description
Valuable insights on the major methods used in today's asset and risk management arena Risk management has moved to the forefront of asset management since the credit crisis. However, most coverage of this subject is overly complicated, misunderstood, and extremely hard to apply. That's why Steven Greiner—a financial professional with over twenty years of quantitative and modeling experience—has written Investment Risk and Uncertainty. With this book, he skillfully reduces the complexity of risk management methodologies applied across many asset classes through practical examples of when to use what. Along the way, Greiner explores how particular methods can lower risk and mitigate losses. He also discusses how to stress test your portfolio and remove the exposure to regular risks and those from "Black Swan" events. More than just an explanation of specific risk issues, this reliable resource provides practical "off-the-shelf" applications that will allow the intelligent investor to understand their risks, their sources, and how to hedge those risks. Covers modern methods applied in risk management for many different asset classes Details the risk measurements of truly multi-asset class portfolios, while bridging the gap for managers in various disciplines—from equity and fixed income investors to currency and commodity investors Examines risk management algorithms for multi-asset class managers as well as risk managers, addressing new compliance issues and how to meet them The theory of risk management is hardly ever spelled out in practical applications that portfolio managers, pension fund advisors, and consultants can make use of. This book fills that void and will put you in a better position to confidently face the investment risks and uncertainties found in today's dynamic markets.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471152804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536
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Book Description
Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.
Author: Espen Gaarder Haug
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118836820
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Derivatives Models on Models takes a theoretical and practical look at some of the latest and most important ideas behind derivatives pricing models. In each chapter the author highlights the latest thinking and trends in the area. A wide range of topics are covered, including valuation methods on stocks paying discrete dividend, Asian options, American barrier options, Complex barrier options, reset options, and electricity derivatives. The book also discusses the latest ideas surrounding finance like the robustness of dynamic delta hedging, option hedging, negative probabilities and space-time finance. The accompanying CD-ROM with additional Excel sheets includes the mathematical models covered in the book. The book also includes interviews with some of the world’s top names in the industry, and an insight into the history behind some of the greatest discoveries in quantitative finance. Interviewees include: Clive Granger, Nobel Prize winner in Economics 2003, on Cointegration Nassim Taleb on Black Swans Stephen Ross on Arbitrage Pricing Theory Emanuel Derman the Wall Street Quant Edward Thorp on Gambling and Trading Peter Carr the Wall Street Wizard of Option Symmetry and Volatility Aaron Brown on Gambling, Poker and Trading David Bates on Crash and Jumps Andrei Khrennikov on Negative Probabilities Elie Ayache on Option Trading and Modeling Peter Jaeckel on Monte Carlo Simulation Alan Lewis on Stochastic Volatility and Jumps Paul Wilmott on Paul Wilmott Knut Aase on Catastrophes and Financial Economics Eduardo Schwartz the Yoga Master of Quantitative Finance Bruno Dupire on Local and Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Joseph L. McCauley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107328136
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Stochastic calculus provides a powerful description of a specific class of stochastic processes in physics and finance. However, many econophysicists struggle to understand it. This book presents the subject simply and systematically, giving graduate students and practitioners a better understanding and enabling them to apply the methods in practice. The book develops Ito calculus and Fokker–Planck equations as parallel approaches to stochastic processes, using those methods in a unified way. The focus is on nonstationary processes, and statistical ensembles are emphasized in time series analysis. Stochastic calculus is developed using general martingales. Scaling and fat tails are presented via diffusive models. Fractional Brownian motion is thoroughly analyzed and contrasted with Ito processes. The Chapman–Kolmogorov and Fokker–Planck equations are shown in theory and by example to be more general than a Markov process. The book also presents new ideas in financial economics and a critical survey of econometrics.
Author: Michele Leonardo Bianchi
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813276215
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 598
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Book Description
The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.
Author: Michael Isichenko
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119821215
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 306
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Book Description
Discover foundational and advanced techniques in quantitative equity trading from a veteran insider In Quantitative Portfolio Management: The Art and Science of Statistical Arbitrage, distinguished physicist-turned-quant Dr. Michael Isichenko delivers a systematic review of the quantitative trading of equities, or statistical arbitrage. The book teaches you how to source financial data, learn patterns of asset returns from historical data, generate and combine multiple forecasts, manage risk, build a stock portfolio optimized for risk and trading costs, and execute trades. In this important book, you’ll discover: Machine learning methods of forecasting stock returns in efficient financial markets How to combine multiple forecasts into a single model by using secondary machine learning, dimensionality reduction, and other methods Ways of avoiding the pitfalls of overfitting and the curse of dimensionality, including topics of active research such as “benign overfitting” in machine learning The theoretical and practical aspects of portfolio construction, including multi-factor risk models, multi-period trading costs, and optimal leverage Perfect for investment professionals, like quantitative traders and portfolio managers, Quantitative Portfolio Management will also earn a place in the libraries of data scientists and students in a variety of statistical and quantitative disciplines. It is an indispensable guide for anyone who hopes to improve their understanding of how to apply data science, machine learning, and optimization to the stock market.
Author: David P. Belmont
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470827297
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
The ultimate guide to dealing with hedge fund risk in a post-Great Recession world Hedge funds have been faced with a variety of new challenges as a result of the ongoing financial crisis. The simultaneous collapse of major financial institutions that were their trading counterparties and service providers, fundamental and systemic increases in market volatility and illiquidity, and unrelenting demands from investors to redeem their hedge fund investments have conspired to make the climate for hedge funds extremely uncomfortable. As a result, many funds have failed or been forced to close due to poor performance. Managing Hedge Fund Risk and Financing: Adapting to a New Era brings together the many lessons learned from the recent crisis. Advising hedge fund managers and CFOs on how to manage the risk of their investment strategies and structure relationships to best insulate their firms and investors from the failures of financial counterparties, the book looks in detail at the various methodologies for managing hedge fund market, credit, and operational risks depending on the hedge fund's investment strategy. Also covering best practice ISDA, Prime Brokerage, Fee and Margin Lock Up, and including tips for Committed Facility lending contracts, the book includes everything you need to know to learn from the events of the past to inform your future hedge fund dealings. Shows how to manage hedge fund risk through the application of financial risk modelling and measurement techniques as well as the structuring of financial relationships with investors, regulators, creditors, and trading counterparties Written by a global finance expert, David Belmont, who worked closely with hedge fund clients during the crisis and experienced first hand what works Explains how to profit from the financial crisis In the wake of the Financial Crisis there have been calls for more stringent management of hedge fund risk, and this timely book offers comprehensive guidelines for CFOs looking to ensure world-class levels of corporate governance.
