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Author: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, we apply two new testing approaches: a panel data and principal components version of explosive root tests. We define bubble as an explosive growth of prices that is not supported by the rent increase. Therefore, to check for the existence of bubbles, we examine prices, rents, and price-to-rent ratios. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for the case of newly built housing. However, only in few urban housing markets prices decouple from their fundamental values. On the national level, we do not see evidence for speculative price movements. Overall, we find that the danger of a build-up of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is rather moderate.
Author: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, we apply two new testing approaches: a panel data and principal components version of explosive root tests. We define bubble as an explosive growth of prices that is not supported by the rent increase. Therefore, to check for the existence of bubbles, we examine prices, rents, and price-to-rent ratios. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for the case of newly built housing. However, only in few urban housing markets prices decouple from their fundamental values. On the national level, we do not see evidence for speculative price movements. Overall, we find that the danger of a build-up of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is rather moderate.
Author: Andrea Deghi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525832
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Author: Martina Eckardt
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319752111
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
In light of demographic change and the growing problems of traditional old-age security systems, this book discusses two essential instruments in connection with privately providing for old-age security: (1) savings in private pension schemes and (2) building up equity for home-ownership. Further, it assesses the relationship between the two instruments and offers a unique overview of the latest market developments. In order to represent the profound differences between the individual member states of the EU, this book features six country-specific studies – covering Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – that provide detailed insights into the complexity of local private pension schemes, mortgage markets, and housing markets. Lastly, the book discusses public policies and fiscal incentives intended to better integrate residential property with private pensions. It will appeal to both, private households seeking to build up old-age security, as well as policy makers interested in providing secure pension schemes.
Author: Frank Heinemann
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319562614
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 349
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Book Description
This volume investigates different aspects of monetary policy and prevention of financial crises. It discusses some recently suggested measures for central banks' responses to liquidity shortages and to the liquidity trap, methods for assessing the potential of crisis contagion via the interbank network, and the interaction between micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It compares different approaches for solving the Eurozone sovereign-debt problem and provides a new and intriguing explanation for rising income inequality. The authors are experts on monetary policy, financial crises, and contract theory from different European universities and central banks.
Author: Pengfei Ni
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813291117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 623
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Book Description
This report was jointly launched by the National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and UN-HABITAT. Using the indicator system and objective data, the competitiveness of 1,035 global cities was evaluated in detail. The report measures the development pattern of global urban competitiveness as a whole, and the gap between the relevant parties and the ideal state. It has refreshed people's past perceptions of urban rankings and confirmed that the science and technology innovation center cities and central cities of emerging economies have begun to break the inherent global cities and they have entered the ranks of the most urban competitiveness.While paying attention to the comparison of competitiveness among cities, this report further promotes the perspective to the pattern and trend change of global economic and social development from the perspective of city. The followings are new findings: First, information technology has increasingly become the primary driving force for urban development; Second, it is the three meridians that divide the global urban population and economic differentiation; Third, the soft links between cities gradually dominate the global urban system; Fourth, the formation of new global cities is beginning.
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030116743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author: Rebecca L. H. Chiu
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 0429796161
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 427
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Book Description
Recent rapid housing market expansion in China is presenting new challenges for policy makers, planners, business people, and citizens. Now that housing in middle-income China is driven by consumer choices and is no longer dominated by state policy decisions, housing policy issues in Chinese cities are becoming increasingly similar to those encountered in other global housing markets. With soaring prices and imbalances in housing supply favoring high income groups and housing demand driven by rising inequality in household incomes, many middle and lower-income households face worsening choices in terms of the quality and location of their housing as well as greater financial difficulties, which together can have negative implications for standards of public health. This book examines the impact of these changes on the general population, as well as on aspiring homeowners and developers. The contributors look at the effect on the widening of wealth gaps, slower economic growth, and threats to political and social stability. Though focusing on China, the editors also present discussions of specific policy design challenges encountered in Australia, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, and the US. This book would be of interest to housing policy makers, as well as academics who are studying the social and political effects of the Chinese housing market.
Author: Leung, Charles K.Y.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1789908493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480
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Book Description
This Handbook collects a set of academic and accessible chapters to address three questions: What should real estate economists know about macroeconomics? What should macroeconomists know about real estate? What should readers know about the interaction between real estate and macroeconomics?
Author: Rowland Atkinson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134330650
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
The Gentrification in a Global Perspective brings together the most recent theoretical and empirical research on gentrification at a global scale.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
