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Author: Agar Brugiavini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This paper uses administrative data to study the retirement decisions of Italian private-sector non-agricultural employees during the period 1977-97. Our analysis tries to assess the importance of the financial incentives built into the social security system. The basic idea is very simple: at any given age, and based on the available information, workers compare the expected present value of two alternatives: retiring today or working one more year, and then choose the best one. A key role in this kind of comparisons is played by social security wealth, whose level and changes reflect the expectations about the profile of future earnings and the institutional features of the social security system. The various incentive measures that we consider differ in the precise weight given to the social security wealth that workers accrue as they continue to work. Our model does not provide a structural representation of the retirement process. A worker's decision is modeled here following a 'quasi reduced-form' approach, with the incentive measures entering as predictors of the worker's choice in addition to standard variables. The estimated models are then used to predict retirement probabilities under alternative policies that change social security wealth and derived incentive measures.
Author: Agar Brugiavini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper uses administrative data to study the retirement decisions of Italian private-sector non-agricultural employees during the period 1977-97. Our analysis tries to assess the importance of the financial incentives built into the social security system. The basic idea is very simple: at any given age, and based on the available information, workers compare the expected present value of two alternatives: retiring today or working one more year, and then choose the best one. A key role in this kind of comparisons is played by social security wealth, whose level and changes reflect the expectations about the profile of future earnings and the institutional features of the social security system. The various incentive measures that we consider differ in the precise weight given to the social security wealth that workers accrue as they continue to work. Our model does not provide a structural representation of the retirement process. A worker's decision is modeled here following a 'quasi reduced-form' approach, with the incentive measures entering as predictors of the worker's choice in addition to standard variables. The estimated models are then used to predict retirement probabilities under alternative policies that change social security wealth and derived incentive measures.
Author: Agar Brugiavini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Retirement
Languages : en
Pages : 112
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This paper analyzes the incentives provided by the Italian Social Security System (SS) to supply labor. Italy is an interesting example in this context as: (1) fertility rates are very low while life expectancy has improved dramatically over the past decades; (2) the SS Program is extremely generous to retirees by providing very high replacement rates; (3) virtually all retirement income is in the form of SS benefits; (4) the existence of an early retirement provision, which attracts no actuarial penalty, greatly distorts choices in favor of early retirement. This paper addresses the above issue by first documenting the stylized facts of the labor market and the SS provisions. A simulation model is then developed to better understand the incentive effects of SS on current cohorts of retirees. This model proposes two measures for incentives: the accrual rate (i.e. the percentage change in Social Security Wealth) from postponing retirement and the implicit tax/subsidy (via SS entitlements) on potential earnings from working an additional year. The simulation results show that the Italian SS Program provides a strong incentive to retire early and the age-implicit tax profile fits very closely with the estimated hazards out of the labor force. Additional evidence of the existence of behavioral responses to SS policy changes lends further support to the view that old age insurance arrangements have an influence on labor supply decisions.
Author: Agar Brugiavini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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In this paper, we contribute to the current debate on the Italian pension system by analyzing the impact of social security reforms, in terms of both budgetary implications and distributional effects. This is done by simulating the effects of three hypothetical reforms, plus the effects of the 1995-reform of the Italian pension system (the so-called Dini reform). Our approach relies on the use of a semi-structural econometric model to predict retirement probabilities under different policy cenarios, so as to properly take into account the behavioral effects of the reforms. On the basis of the estimated retirement model, we develop a complete accounting exercise which includes not only changes in gross future benefits due to policy changes, but also changes in social security contributions, income taxes and value added taxes. Thus, our results provide not only estimates of the workers' gains or losses, but also an exhaustive evaluation of the gains and losses for the government budget. We find that the reforms, particularly the Dini reform (once fully phased in), have a substantial impact on individuals' retirement decisions and their net social security wealth, as well as substantial gains for the government finances.
Author: Jonathan Gruber
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226309983
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 752
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Book Description
Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World represents the second stage of an ongoing research project studying the relationship between social security and labor. In the first volume, Jonathan Gruber and David A. Wise revealed enormous disincentives to continued work at older ages in developed countries. Provisions of many social security programs typically encourage retirement by reducing pay for work, inducing older employees to leave the labor force early and magnifying the financial burden caused by an aging population. At a certain age there is simply no financial benefit to continuing to work. In this volume, the authors turn to a country-by-country analysis of retirement behavior based on micro-data. The result of research compiled by teams in twelve countries, the volume shows an almost uniform correlation between levels of social security incentives and retirement behavior in each country. The estimates also show that the effect is strikingly uniform in countries with very different cultural histories, labor market institutions, and other social characteristics.
Author: Nicola Rossi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Personal
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Author: Pier Marco Ferraresi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This paper focuses on alternative money's worth measures of the Italian (public) pension system for representative cohorts, considering both the present transition and the future steady state envisaged by recent reforms. Micro-based calculations of the aggregate budget effects induced by further possible policy changes are also presented. The main results of the simulation exercise are: i) young and future generations face a steady and strong reduction of their social security's worth mainly due to the 1992 and 1995 reforms and accentuated by the discontinuities characterizing the reforms; ii) throughout most of the transition period, the increase in benefits for an additional year of work, after reaching seniority pension requirement, does not offset the financial costs generated by additional contributions and shorter expected retirement. The implied loss still represents a strong incentive to early retirement; iii) the extension, from the year 2000, of the pro rata mechanism to all new pensioners would generate a non-negligible smoothing effect on microeconomic distortions, but a comparatively small reduction in pension expenditure; iv) a much larger reduction can be obtained if seniority pensions are determined according to actuarial fairness: i.e., by taking into account life expectancy at retirement; v) considering the introduction of an opting out clause, all generations hit by recent reforms have an incentive to quit; the younger the cohort, the stronger the incentive. The paper finally highlights aspects of the social security problem which deserve to be addressed in a more complete analysis, such as risk adjustments, welfare implications and general equilibrium feedback effects. Even without these extensions, we think our conclusions are quite robust, and may help policy discussion.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309170877
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
Aging is a process that encompasses virtually all aspects of life. Because the speed of population aging is accelerating, and because the data needed to study the aging process are complex and expensive to obtain, it is imperative that countries coordinate their research efforts to reap the most benefits from this important information. Preparing for an Aging World looks at the behavioral and socioeconomic aspects of aging, and focuses on work, retirement, and pensions; wealth and savings behavior; health and disability; intergenerational transfers; and concepts of well-being. It makes recommendations for a collection of new, cross-national data on aging populationsâ€"data that will allow nations to develop policies and programs for addressing the major shifts in population age structure now occurring. These efforts, if made internationally, would advance our understanding of the aging process around the world.
Author: Jonathan Gruber
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226309509
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Many countries have social security systems that are currently financially unsustainable. Economists and policy makers have long studied this problem and identified two key causes. First, as declining birth rates raise the share of older persons in the population, the ratio of retirees to benefits-paying employees increases. Second, as falling mortality rates increase lifespans, retirees receive benefits for longer than in the past. Further exacerbating the situation, the provisions of social security programs often provide strong incentives to leave the labor force. Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World offers comparative analysis from twelve countries and examines the issue of age in the labor force. A notable group of contributors analyzes the relationship between incentives to retire and the proportion of older persons in the workforce, the effects that reforming social security would have on the employment rates of older workers, and how extending labor force participation will affect program costs. Dispelling the myth that employing older workers takes jobs away from the young, this timely volume challenges a raft of existing assumptions about the relationship between old and young people in the workforce.
Author: Jonathan Gruber
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 9780716786559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 806
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Book Description
Chapters include: "Income distribution and welfare programs", "State and local government expenditures" and "Health economics and private health insurance".
Author: Axel Börsch-Supan
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022667424X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 481
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Book Description
This ninth phase of the International Social Security project, which studies the experiences of twelve developed countries, examines the effects of public pension reform on employment at older ages. In the past two decades, men’s labor force participation at older ages has increased, reversing a long-term pattern of decline; participation rates for older women have increased dramatically as well. While better health, more education, and changes in labor-supply behavior of married couples may have affected this trend, these factors alone cannot explain the magnitude of the employment increase or its large variation across countries. The studies in this volume explore how financial incentives to work at older ages have evolved as a result of public pension reforms since 1980 and how these changes have affected retirement behavior. Utilizing a common template to analyze the developments across countries, the findings suggest that social security reforms have strengthened the financial returns to working at older ages and that these enhanced financial incentives have contributed to the rise in late-life employment.
