Short and Long-term Biases in European Football Pre-game Betting Markets PDF Download
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Author: David Winkelmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: David Winkelmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Dragan Sestovic
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
In this article we discuss bookmaker margins embedded in odds for "1X2" bets in the European football betting markets operated by bookmakers. Bookmaker margins are adjustments applied to fair odds, for the purpose of ensuring profits and compensation for risks undertaken, and to cover overall operational costs. They are observable on a per match basis as the excess of the sum of the reciprocals of odds over one, which is popularly referred to as overround. In this article we study the margins from a risk point of view. We derive the expression for the expected variance of a portfolio of bets, in order to study risk-based determinants of margins. Risk of a portfolio of bets is shown to be particularly sensitive to the presence of low probability bets (longshots). We propose a new, risk-based measure for quantifying balancedness of a match. Using this measure along with the standard entropy measure, we investigate variations of overrounds between matches of different levels of balancedness. Our analysis shows that there is no a convincing empirical evidence that overall overrounds are dependent on the match balancedness. Similarly, the study of variations of overrounds by the levels of disagreement in probabilities between different bookmakers, does not show any significant interdependence. On the other hand, our study confirms the pervasiveness of a well known Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in the European football betting markets. The odds have been more favourable for bets on favourites than for longshots. These conclusions suggest that margins are determined on a match-per-match basis. Long odds on longshots are being adjusted more aggressively downwards than short odds on favourites, while overall margins are being kept roughly at bookmaker-specific target levels. Empirical studies were performed using the historical data on 116,150 football matches, containing results and odds from 13 major bookmakers. The data set covers 19 major European football divisions during the last 17 years. Using this rich and recent data set, we also investigated the time evolution of overall margins, and variations of margins between the different bookmakers and football divisions.
Author: Donald B. Hausch
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812819193
Category : Games & Activities
Languages : en
Pages : 679
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Book Description
A reprint of one of the classic volumes on racetrack efficiency, this book is the only one in its field that deals with the racetrack betting market in-depth, containing all the important historical papers on racetrack efficiency. As evidenced by the collection of articles, the understanding of racetrack betting is clearly drawn from, and has correspondingly returned something to, all the fields of psychology, economics, finance, statistics, mathematics and management science.
Author: Donald B. Hausch
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080559956
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lottery markets make this volume a winner. These markets are simpler to study than traditional financial markets, and their expected values and outcomes are uncomplicated. By means of new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets. Easily studied sports markets reveal features relevant for more complex traditional financial markets Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai New studies of betting exchanges and Internet wagering markets
Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139445405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Book Description
The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.
Author: Plácido Rodríguez
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1785364553
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
This unique book delves into a number of intriguing issues and addresses several pertinent questions including, should gambling markets be privatized? Is the ‘hot hand’ hypothesis real or a myth? Are the ‘many’ smarter than the ‘few’ in estimating betting odds? How are prices set in fixed odds betting markets? The book also explores the informational efficiency of betting markets and the prevalence of corruption and illegal betting in sports.
Author: Pete Nordsted
Publisher: Harriman House
ISBN: 9781906659820
Category : Football
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This handbook features the key stats and strategies that the bookies don't want readers to know. It highlights a variety of football markers that can be bet upon, and includes a breakdown of a team's statistical performance over the previous season.
Author: Brian P. Soebbing
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 303842871X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Sports Finance" that was published in IJFS
Author: William S. Mallios
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118099532
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 207
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Book Description
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Author: Stephen Dobson
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521517140
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 474
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Book Description
The second edition of this popular book presents a detailed economic analysis of professional football at club level, with new material included to reflect the development of the economics of professional football over the past ten years. Using a combination of economic reasoning and statistical and econometric analysis, the authors build upon the successes and strengths of the first edition to guide readers through the economic complexities and peculiarities of English club football. It uses a wide range of international comparisons to help emphasize both the broader relevance as well as the unique characteristics of the English experience. Topics covered include some of the most hotly debated issues currently surrounding professional football, including player salaries, the effects of management on team performance, betting on football, racial discrimination and the performance of football referees. This edition also features new chapters on the economics of international football, including the World Cup.
