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Author: Sinikukka Saari
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291989645
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 103
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Book Description
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
Author: Sinikukka Saari
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291989645
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 103
Get Book Here
Book Description
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
Author: Sinikukka Saari
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291989652
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 103
Get Book Here
Book Description
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
Author: U. S. Military
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781520793719
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
This excellent report is concerned with the direction Russia will take over the next 20 years, its growing influence on the world scene, and the particular challenges it will present to the United States by 2030. The determination that Russia will be an adversary is certainly not a foregone conclusion; however, neither is long-term Russo-American friendship a predetermined outcome. "What is certain is that whatever the intentions of Russia, the United States must be prepared to handle the challenges they may present. Further, the typical Department of Defense (DOD) myopia of focusing primarily on the war of the present may be blinding decision makers to the challenges of tomorrow. Handling these long-term threats will require forethought and planning. Preparing the US military will require innovative planning, which needs to include the introduction of emerging technologies, dynamic systems, and insightful strategies that can meet the full spectrum of challenges presented by a resurgent Russia. The purpose of this monograph is to provide the background information necessary to establish a priority listing of the types of systems and organizations needed to meet this kind of future threat. The results of this study will be combined with other alternate futures to optimize the mix of systems and strategies for the U.S. Air Force of 2030. Russia has had a turbulent history, and those experiences have had an indelible influence on the nation as it moved from its tsarist past, through the Soviet interregnum, to its brief flirtation with democracy. These traditions and cultural pressures have instilled in the Russian psyche a belief that strives for stability and seeks strong leadership. Furthermore, Russia tends to value stability and its proclivity for strong leadership even when these traits conflict with those democratic ideals that have become mainstays in the West since the time of the Renaissance and the Reformation. After each change in governance, Russia always returns to form, which is now easy to follow in the Putin era. There is a willing consolidation of power in an authoritarian-style government that is leading Russia back onto the world stage. This resurgent Russia will ultimately become a serious competitor to the United States and over the years could well become a threat.
Author: Susanne Oxenstierna
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131793816X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
The challenges in Russia’s energy sector are changing. On the demand side, Europe is seeking to limit its dependence on Russian oil and gas, with the result that China and other Asian countries are likely to eventually become growing export markets for Russian energy. On the supply side, oil and gas fields in West Siberia are diminishing and in future Russia’s energy will have to come more from East Siberia and the Arctic, which will necessitate new infrastructure development and the employment of advanced technologies, which may increase Russia’s dependence on commercial partners from outside Russia. This book explores the challenges facing Russia’s energy sector and the resulting security implications. It includes a discussion of how far the Russian state is likely to continue to monopolise the energy sector, and how far competition from private and foreign companies might be allowed.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789515333063
Category : European Union
Languages : en
Pages : 221
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Book Description
Author: Jason Blessing
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 1947661116
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the world’s largest, most powerful military alliance. The Alliance has navigated and survived the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the post-9/11 era. Since the release of the 2010 Strategic Concept, NATO’s strategic environment has again undergone significant change. The need to adapt is clear. An opportunity to assess the Alliance’s achievements and future goals has now emerged with the Secretary General’s drive to create a new Strategic Concept for the next decade—an initiative dubbed NATO 2030. A necessary step for formulating a new strategic outlook will thus be understanding the future that faces NATO. To remain relevant and adjust to new circumstances, the Alliance must identify its main challenges and opportunities in the next ten years and beyond. This book contributes to critical conversations on NATO’s future vitality by examining the Alliance’s most salient issues and by offering recommendations to ensure its effectiveness moving forward. Written by a diverse, multigenerational group of policymakers and academics from across Europe and the United States, this book provides new insights about NATO’s changing threat landscape, its shifting internal dynamics, and the evolution of warfare. The volume’s authors tackle a wide range of issues, including the challenges of Russia and China, democratic backsliding, burden sharing, the extension of warfare to space and cyberspace, partnerships, and public opinion. With rigorous assessments of NATO’s challenges and opportunities, each chapter provides concrete recommendations for the Alliance to chart a path for the future. As such, this book is an indispensable resource for NATO’s strategic planners and security and defense experts more broadly.
Author: Alexander Sokolov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Currently the framework conditions for science and technology and innovation (STI) policy have changed significantly in Russia: a system of technology forecasting has been established, which focuses on ensuring the future needs of the manufacturing sector of the national economy. This system was supposed to be the main part of the state strategy planning system which is currently being formed. Over the last decade dozens of science and technology forward-looking projects have been implemented, among which 3 cycles of long-term S&T Foresight stand out prominently. The Foresight was developed by the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. The development of the 3rd cycle of long-term Foresight includes both normative ("market pull") and research ("technology push") approaches. The project involved more than 2,000 experts and more than 200 organizations. Within the project a network of six sectoral Foresight centers was created on the basis of leading universities. The article describes the most important issues of future studies in Russia and presents the principles which formed the basis for the long-term science and technology (S&T) Foresight until 2030. The authors explore its position in the national technology Foresight system and the possibilities for the implementation of its results by the key stakeholders of the national innovation system and on the level of STI policy. Eventually Russian experience could be fairly interesting and useful for many other countries with similar socio-economic features and barrier.
Author: Carla Isabel Fernandes
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781536156089
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book presents the main conclusions reached by the academic project "Geopolitics of Gas and the Future of the Euro-Russian Relations (Geo4GER)." This project is being developed at IPRI -- Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University, an academic research institute dedicated to advanced studies in Political Science and International Relations, of NOVA University of Lisbon, Portugal. Energy security is a key issue on the international political agenda, a prerequisite for political stability and economic development and an indivisible part of a state's overall security. For Europe, the high-energy insufficiency is a major challenge, given its dependence on external sources, especially from Russia, the lack of diversification of energy sources, and the poor branch of its transmission network. For Russia, energy has been a geopolitical factor of power and a potential strategic vector to its re-emergence as a great power in the international system. However, in terms of energy, Russia also faces some long-term challenges, given the fall of its production and the low competitiveness of its gas, which is currently saved from the market where competition can hardly enter. Given this scenario, and also the increasingly important role in the political and strategic discussion of energy issues between Europe and Russia, it becomes relevant to diagnose the past and the present to forecast the medium and long term future (2030), taking into account the expected changes in the geopolitical and energetic environment, and the characteristics and dynamics of European-Russian relationship, including its energy interdependence and the energy policies and strategies outlined by Europe and Russia.
Author: Ozcan Saritas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed 'Nearly perfect future' (economic growth), 'Problem conservation' (economic stagnation), 'Losses and accidents' (economic depression), and 'National priority' trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646797721
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.
