Republic of Kazakhstan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kazakhstan PDF Download
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Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. Despite strong buffers, the economy needs to be better prepared for future shocks in both the short term (e.g., from war spillovers, inflation, and global economic and financial conditions) and the medium term (e.g., from geo-economic fragmentation, climate events, and global decarbonization).
Author: International Monetary Fund Staff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475508832
Category :
Languages : ru
Pages : 68
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Book Description
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513528467
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Kazakhstan discusses that the political transition has increased the focus on social conditions and regional and rural development. Discussions focused on enhancing the inflation-targeting framework, bank soundness, the fiscal framework, structural reforms, and governance. Growth has been buoyed by new spending, retail credit, and oil and gas investments. Inflation has picked up, and the current account has deteriorated. High domestic demand driven by major oil and gas investments and government and household consumption supported by wage increases and consumer lending has underpinned the economy’s strong performance. The state continues to play a strong role in the economy, and the authorities face challenges ensuring that measures are well targeted and effective in promoting private sector growth. The challenges include oil volatility and dependency, reliance on subsidies and other state support, still-impaired banks, and governance vulnerabilities. Progress is being made with structural reform implementation, with many of the flagships “100 Concrete Steps” completed and the remaining ones broadly on track. Efforts to promote a smaller state footprint should continue, with actions to improve governance and mitigate corruption vulnerabilities.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376889
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth has strengthened in Kazakhstan supported by higher oil production and increased activity in trade and manufacturing. Robust exports have contributed to an improvement of the external current account. Inflation has declined and remained within the target band of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK). This, along with anchoring of inflationary expectations, has allowed the NBK to undertake several interest rate cuts. Growth is expected to remain solid, although there are risks. Overall growth will likely slow as the increase of oil production moderates, but non-oil growth should increase further over the medium term, reflecting structural reforms and financial repair and deepening.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Inflation has surged to 18 percent while growth is projected to slow to 2.7 percent this year. High oil prices have strengthened fiscal and external buffers, while the revised budget increased public spending by 21⁄2 percentage points of GDP to support activity. Subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian banks have exited the domestic market and regulatory compliance is being enhanced to avoid secondary sanctions. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as adverse global conditions could lower oil prices and raise borrowing costs, while oil exports through Russian territory remain a major source of vulnerability. Accelerated economic diversification and private sector development are needed to attain sustainable and inclusive growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513521799
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
Context: Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has successfully harnessed its oil resources to bolster economic growth, increase buffers, and reduce poverty. However, in the face of recent large and likely long-lasting external shocks?lower oil prices, Russia slowdown, and corollary exchange rate (ER) movements (ruble depreciation, dollar appreciation)-growth has decelerated rapidly, financial conditions have tightened, and pressures on the balance of payments and exchange rate have built up. The shocks have also increased financial sector vulnerabilities, where nonperforming loans (NPLs), while declining significantly, remain high, and rising balance sheet risks and tight exchange rate management, have put further drag on banks' lending and economic activity. Nevertheless, more recently, and in response to reduced currency pressures and reduced spreads, the authorities successfully tapped the international capital markets and widened the ER band. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: The consultation focused on calibrating the policy response to address Kazakhstan's near-term challenges and long-term goals of becoming a dynamic emerging market economy. Principally, there is need to (i) identify credible medium-term fiscal consolidation measures to ensure sustainability; (ii) introduce greater exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb current and future external shocks; (iii) bolster financial sector resilience to limit adverse spillovers back to the real sector; and (iv) implement structural reforms to ensure durable growth and shared prosperity. Previous consultation: During the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Directors stressed the importance of restoring confidence in the post-devaluation environment and further strengthening the policy frameworks to bolster the economy's resilience to shocks. Specifically, Directors (i) urged appropriate supervisory actions to enforce the NPL ceilings effectively, while ensuring adequate provisions; (ii) highlighted the need to speed up the introduction of a new policy interest rate instrument; (iii) stressed the need to enhance fiscal coverage and integration into a consistent macro-fiscal framework; and (iv) noted the priority of strengthening human capital and institutions, and lowering the role of the state in the economy. Since then, the authorities' resolute efforts on lowering NPLs have begun to pay off, and important early steps have been taken to enhance monetary policy operations, ER flexibility, and communication. Progress in bolstering the fiscal policy framework, however, has been slow. The authorities have also embarked on an ambitious structural reform program and recently completed negotiations to join the WTO within 2015.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498345255
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
KEY ISSUES Context: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May 29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular: (i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations; (iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and (iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently. Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and (iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.
Author: Diego Mesa Puyo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147559870X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights growth in Kazakhstan expected to strengthen to 2.5 percent in 2017 after a slowdown in 2016, reflecting higher oil production and the effect of substantial fiscal stimulus spending. The sharp exchange rate depreciation in late 2015 and early 2016 triggered a surge in consumer prices, but inflation has come down to levels consistent with the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s target range. The medium-term outlook has improved; growth in the non-oil sector is expected to pick up gradually to 4 percent, benefiting from structural reforms and a resumption of bank lending. Uncertainty is high, however, because the economy remains vulnerable to commodity price swings and especially to a sustained decline in oil prices.
