Recent and Projected Climate Variability During the Seasonal Rains of the Greater Horn of Africa PDF Download
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Author: Jared Heath Bowden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 195
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Book Description
Keywords: EOF, ENSO, Parallel Climate Model, Decadal Trend.
Author: Jared Heath Bowden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 195
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Book Description
Keywords: EOF, ENSO, Parallel Climate Model, Decadal Trend.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The objective of this study is to investigate the recent climate variability on intra-seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales for the Greater Horn of Africa for the seasons of October, November, December (OND) and March, April, May (MAM). We use Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to separate the variability. The observed climate variability is used to characterize the historical Parallel Climate Model variability. We then investigate the projected climate variability from the Parallel Climate Model business-as-usual run. Specifically, we demonstrate the observed rainfall-circulation relationships for ENSO during the OND and MAM seasons in relation to the rainfall over GHA using EOFs and the weighted wind composites. We find that during the recent climate of the OND season ENSO and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) occur simultaneously with strong anticyclonic flow near Sumatra. As for the MAM season, there is no sign of the IOZM. During the OND season, the historical EOFs separate ENSO and the IOZM, suggesting the two can behave independently. Overall, the GHA region experiences positive anomalous rainfall during the OND season with the positive phase of the IOZM. The MAM season has no IOZM and demonstrates a complicated spatial temporal pattern because ENSO is in a transition phase during this season. We also demonstrate the significance of a trend mode for both OND and MAM seasons. The trend of the OND season is highly correlated to the tropical South Atlantic Index. The trend is seen in all months but strongest during October. The MAM characteristically favors the tropical South Atlantic Index, but the correlations are much lower. Overall, the combined affect of the MAM and OND season would generate an increasingly wetter northwest GHA and drier southern GHA. Somalia is the only region that compensates the increasing trend through an opposite loading relationship between the OND and MAM seasons.
Author: Hans v. Storch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662031671
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
EUROPEAN SCHOOl OF CLiMATOlOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS The training of scientific and technical personnel and the development of highly qualified scientists are, and have always been, among the important concerns of the European Commission. Advanced training is an important requirement for the implementation of a common EU policy in science and technology. The European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards was started as apart of the training and education activities of the European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards (EPOCH), and is continued under the subsequent research programme (ENVIRONMENT 1990-1994). The school consists of annual courses on specialised subjects within re search in climatology and natural hazards, and is open to graduating, grad uate and post graduate students in these fields. Each of the courses is organized in cooperation with a European Institu tion involved in the current research programme, and is aimed at giving to the students formal lectures and participation in informal discussions with leading researchers. The present volume is based on the lectures given at the course held on the island of Elba from the 30th October to the 6th of November 1993 on Statistical Analysis of Climate Variability. It features selected and extended presentations, and represents an important contribution to advanced studies in climate statistical analysis, supplementing more traditional texts. I trust that all those involved in research related to climate change and climate variability will appreciate this work and will benefit from the com prehensive and state-of-the-art information it provides.
Author: Vincent O Otieno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The main objective of this dissertation is to document characteristics of the processes and mechanisms associated with 20th and 21st century spatio-temporal modes of climate variability and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. This thesis research comprises three major parts. The first part used output from ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979–2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered. The second part focused on the ESM projections under AR5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projections of the GHA Climate. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 archive have been used to characterize projected changes in seasonal and annual mean precipitation, temperature and the hydrological cycle by the middle of twenty-first century over the GHA region. There is significant variation among models in projected precipitation anomalies, with some models projecting an average increase as others project a decrease in precipitation during different seasons. The ensemble mean of the ESMs indicates that the GHA region has been experiencing a steady increase in both precipitation and temperature beginning the early 1980s and 1970s respectively in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Going by the ensemble means, temperatures are projected to steadily increase uniformly in all the seasons at a rate of 0.3/0.50C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios over northern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/3 0C by the middle of the century. On the other hand, temperatures will likely increase at a rate of 0.3/ 0.4 0C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios in both equatorial and southern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/2.5 0C by the middle of twenty first century. Nonetheless, projected precipitation increase varied across seasons and sub-regions. Notably, as precipitation increases, the deficit (E-P) between evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) increased over the years, with a negatively skewed distribution. This generally implies that there is a high likelihood of an increased deficit in local moisture supply. This remarkable change in the general hydrological cycle (i.e. deficit in local moisture) is projected to be also coincident with intensified westerly anomaly influx from the Congo basin into the region. However, better understanding of the detailed changes in hydrological cycle will require comprehensive water budget analyses that require daily or sub-daily variables. The third part was the sub-regional analysis of precipitation and evaporation using high resolution Coordinated Regional experiments (CORDEX) output over the GHA sub region. Over southern GHA region, the number of wet and extreme wet days is projected to increase, expanding the length of a growing season during DJF. However during MAM, the number of wet days is projected to decrease by the middle of the 21st century over southern GHA region. Over equatorial GHA region, the number of wet days is projected to decrease during MAM and OND seasons. This might impact negatively on the agricultural activities in the region. Over the northern GHA region, significant increase/decrease in the number of wet/dry days is projected during September-October-November (SON) season. However, the number of extreme wet days is projected to increase during MAM, JJA and SON seasons while the number of extreme dry days is expected to remain relatively the same in all the seasons. The projected changes in precipitation distribution over the GHA region will have different impact on those sub-regions. For agricultural activities, causes of rain failure might be considered in terms of delayed onset of rains, an early withdrawal, or short but intense rainfall events separated by long dry spells. However, in this research the main focus was on the changes in distribution of rains. Other aspects such as onset and withdrawal and the gap between dry and wet spells also need to be documented for right choice of crop and optimum production.
Author: Lena M. Tallaksen
Publisher: Gulf Professional Publishing
ISBN: 9780444516886
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 634
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Book Description
The majority of the examples are taken from regions where the rivers run most of the year.
Author: Douglas J. Parker
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118391306
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 490
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Book Description
Meteorology of tropical West Africa: the Forecasters’ Handbook presents the science and practice of weather forecasting for an important region of the tropics. Connecting basic theory with forecasting practice, the book provides a unique training volume for operational weather forecasters, and is also suitable for students of tropical meteorology. The West African region contains a number of archetypal climatic zones, meaning that the science of its weather and climate applies to many other tropical regions. West Africa also exhibits some of the world’s most remarkable weather systems, making it an inspiring region for students to investigate. The weather of West Africa affects human livelihoods on a daily basis, and can contribute to hardship, poverty and mortality. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict the weather has the potential to deliver significant benefits to both society and economies. The book includes comprehensive background material alongside documentation of weather forecasting methods. Many examples taken from observations of West African weather systems are included and online case-studies are referenced widely.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634557
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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Book Description
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Author: Brian D. Wardlow
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439835578
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 487
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Book Description
Remote Sensing of Drought: Innovative Monitoring Approaches presents emerging remote sensing-based tools and techniques that can be applied to operational drought monitoring and early warning around the world. The first book to focus on remote sensing and drought monitoring, it brings together a wealth of information that has been scattered throughout the literature and across many disciplines. Featuring contributions by leading scientists, it assembles a cross-section of globally applicable techniques that are currently operational or have potential to be operational in the near future. The book explores a range of applications for monitoring four critical components of the hydrological cycle related to drought: vegetation health, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater, and precipitation. These applications use remotely sensed optical, thermal, microwave, radar, and gravity data from instruments such as AMSR-E, GOES, GRACE, MERIS, MODIS, and Landsat and implement several advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques. Examples show how to integrate this information into routine drought products. The book also examines the role of satellite remote sensing within traditional drought monitoring, as well as current challenges and future prospects. Improving drought monitoring is becoming increasingly important in addressing a wide range of societal issues, from food security and water scarcity to human health, ecosystem services, and energy production. This unique book surveys innovative remote sensing approaches to provide you with new perspectives on large-area drought monitoring and early warning.
Author: Karen L. O'Brien
Publisher: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
Recent food shortages in Southern Africa, induced by rainfall variability but compounded by problems of governance and rising food prices, have resulted in massive relief efforts. A recent scientific innovation - supplying farmers with seasonal climate forecasts - has been touted as a way to increase preparedness for such situations.
Author: S.-Y. Simon Wang
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119068037
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 436
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Book Description
Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
