Recency Bias and Post-Earnings Announcement Drift PDF Download
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Author: Qingzhong Ma
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
In this paper we examine the role of the timing of 52-week high, or recency, in the post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) puzzle. We argue that, because investors are less likely to bid up (down) a stock price if a stock's 52-week high occurred in the recent (distant) past, these stocks are underpriced (overpriced) and earn higher (lower) future returns. We report these findings. First, PEAD profits are mainly driven by recency bias. An enhanced strategy based on both PEAD and recency accounts for 74% of total PEAD profits. Second, the recency bias accounts for the entire PEAD profits of large stocks and of the recent 24 years. The effect of recency bias on PEAD exists even after controlling for price proximity to 52-week high. Our evidence suggests that recency bias plays an important role in PEAD.
Author: Qingzhong Ma
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
In this paper we examine the role of the timing of 52-week high, or recency, in the post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) puzzle. We argue that, because investors are less likely to bid up (down) a stock price if a stock's 52-week high occurred in the recent (distant) past, these stocks are underpriced (overpriced) and earn higher (lower) future returns. We report these findings. First, PEAD profits are mainly driven by recency bias. An enhanced strategy based on both PEAD and recency accounts for 74% of total PEAD profits. Second, the recency bias accounts for the entire PEAD profits of large stocks and of the recent 24 years. The effect of recency bias on PEAD exists even after controlling for price proximity to 52-week high. Our evidence suggests that recency bias plays an important role in PEAD.
Author: Lihong Liang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Prior research has been unable to explain the phenomenon known as post-earnings announcement drift, raising questions concerning the semi-strong form efficiency of the market typically assumed in capital market research. This study contributes to our understanding of this anomaly by examining drift in the context of theories that consider investors' non-Bayesian behaviors. The empirical evidence reveals that investors' overconfidence about their private information and the reliability of the earnings information are two important factors that explain drift. Finally, this study also provides insight into the puzzling relationship between dispersion and drift discussed in prior research.
Author: Tomas Tomcany
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783843367813
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
It is a well documented finding in finance theory that share prices drift in the direction of firms' unexpected earnings changes, a phenomenom known as post-earnings announcement drift, or earnings momentum. In this book, I study the stock prices' reaction to firms' quarterly earnings announcements. The book shows that the timeframe in which the drift occurs is related to the size of a firm and is limited in time after the earnings announcement. I further analyze the effect of the number of analysts covering a firm on the magnitude and persistance of post-earnings announcement drift. I document that recent analyst coverage predicts large drifts after the earnings announcements. I suggest several possible explanations, but the evidence seems most consistent with recent analyst coverage providing information about investor (or analyst) expectations regarding firm's future earnings. This book should be useful to professionals in Financial Economics, especially to those interested in Behavioral Finance in stock markets, but also to equity analysts, traders or investors interested in the stocks' response to earnings news.
Author: David A. Hirshleifer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study tests whether naiquest;ve trading by individual investors, or some class of individual investors, causes post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Inconsistent with the individual trading hypothesis, individual investor trading fails to subsume any of the power of extreme earnings surprises to predict future abnormal returns. Moreover, individuals are significant net buyers after both negative and positive extreme earnings surprises, consistent with an attention effect, but not with their trades causing PEAD. Finally, we find no indication that trading by individuals explains the concentration of drift at subsequent earnings announcement dates.
Author: Xin Cui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
We examine the role of investors' beliefs in determining the post earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Specifically, we propose a technique to estimate the belief parameters of the informed and uninformed investors, based on which we define the uninformed investors' information acceptance ratio (IAR). We demonstrate that IAR is a key factor determining the length of PEAD. IAR also explains the post announcement returns and the risk increases. Furthermore, we show that the earnings announcements contain both the hard and soft information. The hard information reduces uncertainty, whereas the soft information enhances uncertainty. And the latter effect dominates the former.
Author: Amir Guttman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
Author: Sarah Suter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Earlier studies on earnings numbers have discovered a market anomaly which could not be explained by flaws in the applied research design. They claim that stock prices do not incor-porate earnings news immediately, as suggested by the efficient market theory, but tend to drift into the direction of the unexpected earnings after an earnings announcement. In addi-tion, this effect seems to be stronger if investors are distracted by competing announcements at the announcement date. Based on Swiss earnings and stock price data, this paper analyses whether unexpected earnings are followed by cumulative abnormal stock returns. I find post-earnings announcement drift that increases with the magnitude of the earnings surprise. By comparing immediate and delayed market reaction and post-earnings announcement drift on high-news and low-news days, this study examines the effect of investor inattention on post-earnings announcement drift. The findings are consistent with lower immediate market re-sponse and stronger drift when investors are distracted.
Author: VICTOR L. BERNARD
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Author: David A. Hirshleifer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This study tests whether naïve trading by individual investors, or some class of individual investors, causes post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Inconsistent with the individual trading hypothesis, individual investor trading fails to subsume any of the power of extreme earnings surprises to predict future abnormal returns. Moreover, individuals are significant net buyers after both negative and positive extreme earnings surprises, consistent with an attention effect, but not with their trades causing PEAD. Finally, we find no indication that trading by individuals explains the concentration of drift at subsequent earnings announcement dates. The paper is available here: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=1120495" https://ssrn.com/abstract=1120495.
Author: Anthony J. Amoruso
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We analyze changes in post-earnings announcement drift around 1,781 two-for-one or greater stock splits reported by an equal number of CRSP firms during the 1972 through 1996 time period. We find that for the smallest firms in our sample, post-earnings announcement drift is eliminated in the quarters immediately following the split. The effect is transitory, however, with drift reasserting itself beginning with the third post-split quarterly earnings announcement. The abnormal returns for the largest firms in our sample exhibit insignificant drift in both pre- and post-split periods. These results suggest that stock splits provide information that causes investors - at least temporarily - to more fully incorporate serial correlation into their earnings expectations. The differential effect noted for small and large firms is likely attributable to the richer information environment faced by larger firms, in which the signal provided by a stock split does not constitute a significant incremental contribution. Our results are inconsistent with the transactions costs explanation of drift, which predicts an increase in drift following a split that is invariant to firm size.
