Author: Stavislav Petrasek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forests and forestry
Languages : en
Pages : 125

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Author: Rajender Prasad Khajuria
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780494580202
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, 'jumps' were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

Author: Graeme Guthrie
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019993908X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 432

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Decision-makers in business and economics face a staggering array of problems. For example, managers of growing firms have to decide when to expand their business, governments have to decide whether to undertake large infrastructure investments, and managers of oil firms must decide how rapidly to deplete their reserves. While these problems seem quite diverse, they all share many important features. In each case, the decision-maker must choose when to take a particular action that will be potentially impossible to reverse, and the consequences of taking (or not taking) that action are uncertain. Also, the timing and nature of these actions directly affect the cash flows generated by the entities they manage. This book explains how techniques originally developed to price financial derivatives can be used to analyze real-world decisions, and provides the tools necessary to put them into practice. The real options analysis approach to decision-making is built on strong theoretical foundations, and is widely discussed in practitioner literature, but often only at a fairly intuitive level. What practitioners need-and what this book delivers-is a structured approach to systematically applying real options analysis to the wide variety of problems they will meet in business and economics. Real Options in Theory and Practice focuses on building up a general approach to solving real options problems from the ground up. Rather than aiming to build a "black box" to solve a small set of standardized real options problems, it describes the building blocks of any successful real options analysis and shows how they can be assembled in a way that is appropriate to the problem being analyzed. For both practitioners and academics, Real Options in Theory and Practice will serve as an authoritative and invaluable resource for those looking for effective and practical solutions to complex, real-life problems.

Author: Rajender Khajuria
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Johnathan Mun
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118429079
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 603

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"Mun demystifies real options analysis and delivers a powerful, pragmatic guide for decision-makers and practitioners alike. Finally, there is a book that equips professionals to easily recognize, value, and seize real options in the world around them." --Jim Schreckengast, Senior VP, R&D Strategy, Gemplus International SA, France Completely revised and updated to meet the challenges of today's dynamic business environment, Real Options Analysis, Second Edition offers you a fresh look at evaluating capital investment strategies by taking the strategic decision-making process into consideration. This comprehensive guide provides both a qualitative and quantitative description of real options; the methods used in solving real options; why and when they are used; and the applicability of these methods in decision making.

Author: David C. Baumgartner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest and forestry
Languages : en
Pages : 12

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Author: Marion A. Brach
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471445568
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384

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Explores real option theory applied in practice Real options are quickly becoming the valuation and decision-making method of choice for many companies, including oil and gas companies, utilities and natural resource companies, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, Internet companies, and many others. Real Options in Practice allows readers to view the world of real options from the vantage point of a corporate practitioner applying real option valuation techniques on a regular basis. Expert Marion Brach describes the challenges of implementing a real option framework in practice within a corporate setting. Touching on the real options most firms care about, Real Options in Practice identifies the classic types of real options-deferral, abandonment, switching, expansion, and compound-and explores the main concepts critical to understanding real option theory. Through Brach's own three-step real option valuation method readers will learn how the theory of real options is now being applied to drive better, more profitable corporate decision-making. Marion A. Brach, MD, MBA (Hagen, Germany), has undertaken financial valuation of business opportunities and acquisitions using scenario and real option valuation in the biotech industry. A recognized expert on real option theory and practice, Brach received her MBA from the Manchester Business School and frequently speaks at real option seminars.

Author: Robert John Engelhard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest management
Languages : en
Pages : 16

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Author: Bin Mei
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000883833
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 231

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Forestland investment has surged in the past few decades as a result of land ownership change in the forestry industry. Timberland investment and management organizations and real estate investment trusts have bought up land and resources that were divested by vertically integrated forest products companies. This book provides a seminal coverage of this seismic shift in the industry, exploring the philosophy, driving factors, valuation, theory, research, implementation, practice, and effects of forestland investment. Across 15 chapters the book reviews the history of forestland investment; discusses the optimal forest rotation; explains timberland appraisal; examines the return drivers of forestland; analyzes timberland index construction methods and results; prices timberland assets; reviews financial and real options; investigates real option values in forestland management; evaluates timber harvest contracts; examines new opportunities in the emerging woody bioenergy market; and eventually offers prospects on forestland investment in the future. It also discusses how forest carbon can be used as a nature-based climate solution. This book is essential reading for forestry business students and scholars, as well as practitioners and policymakers in the industry.

Author: Asen Kolaksazov
Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN: 3954899310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 73

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Book Description
In der US-amerikanischen Literatur zur Investitionsrechnung und deren Anwendungen, z.B. in der Unternehmensbewertung, findet sich bereits seit längerem der Vorwurf, dass die Kapitalwertmethode nicht in der Lage sei, den ökonomischen Wert von Investitionsmöglichkeiten richtig zu erfassen. Insbesondere vernachlässigt sie den Wert unternehmerischer Flexibilität. Um diesen zu berücksichtigen, wird vorge-schlagen, die Bewertung unternehmerscher Handlungsspielräume analog zur Bewertung von Finanzoptionen vorzunehmen. Dabei werden unternehmerische Handlungsspielräume als Optionen auf reale Vermögensgegenstände betrachtet. Zur Unterscheidung gegenüber Finanzoptionen hat sich die Bezeichnung Realoptionen etabliert. Während in den USA bereits eine breit gefächerte Literatur zu diesen The-menkomplex entstanden ist, sind im deutschsprachigen Raum hierzu bisher nur wenige Stellungnahmen zu finden. Um jedoch den Wert von Investitionen für die Zukunft zu bestimmen, reichen die traditionellen Methoden der Unternehmens- und Investitionsbewertung nicht aus, denn sie berücksichtigen nicht die entstehenden Möglichkeiten und Flexibilitäten. So werden riskante oder außergewöhnliche Investitionsmöglichkeiten von den traditionellen Investitionsrechnungsverfahren als nicht lukrativ eingestuft, obwohl sie ein enormes Marktpotential besitzen. Solche Investitionsmöglichkeiten können mit dem Ansatz der Realoptionen genauer und unter strategischen Aspekten auch besser beurteilt werden. Es wurde seitens der Investoren der Wert einer solchen zukunfts- und risikobezogenen Bewertung erkannt. Aus diesem Grund wird der Ansatz der Realoptionen immer häufiger zur Bewertung eingesetzt. In Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird die Motivation, die hinter dem Realoptionsansatzes steht, hervorgehoben.