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Author: Tasos Stylianou
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783659585432
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
The aim of this monograph is to present and analyze the relationships between public debt and economic growth in European countries for the period of 1990 to 2013. The monograph consists of two parts. The first part deals with the theoretical analysis of the relationships between public debt and economic growth, including descriptive statistics and the evolution of the two basic variables, the variable of public debt ratio and the variable of growth rates, for eight European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and UK). The next part deals with the empirical analysis for Greece. During the last decade Greece is facing many economic problems. The economy is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and the debt deepens. In this part we examine whether the debt is promoting economic growth in Greece. We use time series data from 1980 to 2010 and the data are fitted into the regression equation using econometric techniques. We are testing the variables with techniques such as Zivot Andrew's, Perron's and Bai Perron's tests to find any structural breaks. Then we are testing if there is any causal effect in the model with Granger causality test.
Author: Tasos Stylianou
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783659585432
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
The aim of this monograph is to present and analyze the relationships between public debt and economic growth in European countries for the period of 1990 to 2013. The monograph consists of two parts. The first part deals with the theoretical analysis of the relationships between public debt and economic growth, including descriptive statistics and the evolution of the two basic variables, the variable of public debt ratio and the variable of growth rates, for eight European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and UK). The next part deals with the empirical analysis for Greece. During the last decade Greece is facing many economic problems. The economy is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and the debt deepens. In this part we examine whether the debt is promoting economic growth in Greece. We use time series data from 1980 to 2010 and the data are fitted into the regression equation using econometric techniques. We are testing the variables with techniques such as Zivot Andrew's, Perron's and Bai Perron's tests to find any structural breaks. Then we are testing if there is any causal effect in the model with Granger causality test.
Author: Alfred Greiner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642017452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.
Author: Marta Gómez-Puig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper empirically investigates the short and long-run impact of public debt on economic growth. We use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the euro area (EA) for the 1961-2013 period and estimate a production function augmented with a debt stock term by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our results suggest different patterns across EA countries and tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EA member states, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.
Author: Jaejoon Woo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145520157X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Author: Christina Checherita
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Jaejoon Woo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455201855
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Author: Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484392892
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
Author: Luigi Paganetto
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 8847053315
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 367
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Book Description
This volume presents a selection of contributions to the XXIV Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar on “Public debt, global governance and economic dynamism”. For the past 23 years, the Seminar has provided an ideal opportunity to meet and discuss the most topical issues in economic research. The quality of the scientific contributions and ensuing debates has consistently been outstanding owing to the participation of leading experts, and the most recent Seminar was no exception. The Seminar was held against the backdrop of high levels of public debt, especially in Europe, combined with very low growth in productivity. Furthermore, markets have been dominated by financial instability, raising the question of whether this is the result of the high debt levels or insufficient economic dynamism. Among the topics covered in this book are the economic challenges and growth policies in the United States; issues relating to the G20, global governance and regional integration; EU governance, growth and the Eurozone crisis; and EMU policy and public debt. Individual contributions also address the impact of labor market reforms, the need for sectoral rebalancing in the Euro area, fiscal multipliers and public debt dynamics, and the effects of fiscal shocks in Italy. The book concludes with a contribution on policy recommendations.
Author: Juergen Attard
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783346095350
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, The University of York, course: MSc Economics, language: English, abstract: Despite the European sovereign debt crisis, few empirical studies have examined the debt and growth nexus for European economies, particularly on a holistic European level. This study sets out to address this gap by using data for 25 European Union member states to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the impact of debt on economic growth. A panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is used to analyse the impact of debt on growth. This framework helps in determining both the long and short-run impact of debt on growth. This mitigates some limitations of previous empirical literature that explains either the short- or long-run effect. The full panel ARDL estimation illustrates a negative relationship between debt and growth both over the long and short-term. The debt and growth nexus, although of different magnitudes, is also negative across high and low levels of debt and across different time periods. Finally, a Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality test is carried out to establish the causal direction between debt and growth. Evidence of bidirectional causality is detected for the full panel of countries. However, the direction of causality varies between countries with high and low average debt-to-GDP ratio. In the aftermath of the 2007 global financial and economic crisis, the level of global public debt has increased significantly. This upsurge in global public debt has led to the revival of the academic debate on public debt and economic growth nexus. With global debt levels well above those registered in 2008, it is vital to analyse the repercussions that government debt has on growth. Empirical research in this area is key to identify the policy recommendations needed to avoid another economic crisis.
Author: Anita Čeh Časni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
The aim of this paper is to quantify the long run and short run relationship between debt and economic activity in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European countries. In order to investigate the impact of public debt on economic growth, the paper uses pooled mean group estimator (PMG) for the period between 2000 and 2011. A battery of panel unit root as well as panel cointegration tests is used prior to performing the dynamic panel analysis based on PMG estimator. According to the empirical results, in the long-run debt significantly influences the GDP growth having a negative sign as expected and pointing out that government gross debt lowers the GDP growth. In the short run, debt has statistically significant negative influence on the GDP growth as well, controlling for other determinants of growth (trade openness, total investment and industry value added). Designing policy frameworks that encourage export, promote industrial development and create better environment for long-term investment should foster sustainable growth. Therefore, we find that a credible fiscal consolidation strategy is needed combined with policies to promote lasting growth in order to reach debt-stabilizing levels.
