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Author: Christoph Duenwald
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451841756
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Author: Christoph Duenwald
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451841756
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Author: Sanjay Kalra
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Real property
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Ogonna Nneji
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclicality and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market.
Author: Eden Hatzvi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We examine whether asset pricing theory can explain residential property prices. Using quarterly data for Local Government Areas in Sydney from 1991 to 2006, we find little evidence that variations in price: rent ratios anticipate future real rent growth. Instead changes in price: rent ratios apparently reflect changing expectations about future discount factors. Some important geographical differences in the behaviour of property prices across metropolitan Sydney are identified. A significant proportion of the variation in property prices in outer western regions of Sydney is not explained by either rents or discount factors; pointing to a possible role for a speculative bubble.
Author: Lawrence Roberts
Publisher: Monterey Cypress LLC
ISBN: 0615226930
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 251
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Book Description
A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover
Author: Konstantin Arkadʹevič Cholodilin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In the light of the unconventional monetary policies conducted by the majority of large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about their potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the recent policy by the European Central Bank is widely spread and concerns about the emergence of a speculative price bubble are raised. However, studies on bubbles in house prices are scarce and provide mixed results. Moreover, the evidence on German property prices is either based on national indices, which are neglecting city-level heterogeneity, or based on a non-representative sample of cities, or refers to a time period that is relatively short. The present study analyzes a comprehensive data set covering 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Using state-of-the-art methodology we test for speculative bubbles both at a national and at the city level. Furthermore, we apply two new testing approaches: panel data and principal components versions of Chow type explosive root tests. In addition, we use a more precise definition of a speculative bubble: We define price movements as bubbles when explosive growth of prices is not supported by explosive increases of rents. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for newly built housing. However, only in some urban housing markets, prices decouple from their fundamental values as represented by rents. On the national level, no speculative price movements could be detected. Overall, our findings indicate that the threat of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is moderate. While we find first evidence for speculative bubbles in selected urban markets, our results indicate that the German housing market overall still appears to be in good condition. Only the small market segment of newly built apartments is affected by potentially speculative investment behavior. Indeed, when accumulated over the period 2009-2013, the newly built housing makes up only 2.2% of the housing stock in 2013. Our results are largely in line with the assessment of most housing market analysts who find that the German housing market is quite stable. However, while most discussants argue that there is no need to worry at all, we conclude that decision makers are well advised to have a close eye on the housing market and to keep track of regional market developments. While it is true that unlike in Spain or the United States, the boom in the German housing market is not credit driven on aggregate, this does not necessarily mean that housing lending on the regional level has not increased substantially.
Author: Michael Thomsett
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814430112
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
We’ve all heard the reports -- the great housing boom that has fueled premium prices and sellers’ dreams is slowing down. The real estate market may experience ups and downs like any other, but it’s not likely to implode spontaneously. With proper planning and a little knowledge, homeowners, investors, and other stakeholders can avoid disaster and in fact profit on their properties regardless of what the market does. Beyond the Bubble takes a balanced look at what drives changes in real estate markets and how these changes affect property owners and investors. Readers will learn: * the history, nature, and dynamics of market ‘bubbles’ * how to anticipate a coming downturn and act accordingly * the regional nature of real estate market conditions * differences and similarities in residential and commercial markets * other profit strategies when selling is difficult or impossible * how to analyze the market using facts, not hype. Thorough and well-reasoned, Beyond the Bubble will help property owners maintain a strong and level foundation for their financial futures.
Author: Luca Dominikat
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3346874117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, grade: 1,3, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: The development of real estate prices is of extraordinary importance for the financial and economic system, as undesirable developments could endanger financial stability, as seen in the subprime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis. The same month the dot-com bubble burst, the Nobel Prize winner and current book author Robert J. Shiller published the non-fictional, bestselling first edition of his book, named "Irrational Exuberance", in which he explains his research on the occurrences and the causes of historical financial crises, while supplementing the conclusions with aspects of behavioural finance and social studies. As Shiller’s assertions are mainly based on the US market, research has been conducted to clarify whether his housing index and the concept of irrational exuberance can be applied to the German real estate market. By the detailed consideration of selected aspects of the book in connection with the conception of academic literature, this thesis finds that his ideas can principally be transferred to assess whether the German real estate market currently exhibits bubbly tendencies. This assessment is conducted, however, there are limitations in the sole consideration as an indicator as well as in the critical evaluation of the German real estate market.
Author: Steve Jones
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
The real estate industry has a close relationship with the national economy. As a pillar industry, it effectively stimulates other industry growth and has accelerated housing demand in China notably over the past decade. However, due to multiple factors, the creation of a bubble economy is inevitable within the real estate industry. For example, factors could be the rapid growth of investment portfolios and the increase in residential property price, or an imbalance between market supply and demand which results in the disproportionate structure of the real estate market."the basic intuition is straightforward: if the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow-when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price-then a bubble exists" (Stiglitz, 1990).This dissertation aims to; (1) Analyse the generation mechanism and driving forces of real estate bubble, (2) Find the degree of the speculative bubble in Chinese market, (3) Investigate the bubble in residential market in Shenzhen, and (4) Obtain the useful suggestions that can be used for the speculative bubble regulation and control.
Author: Barbara Gottfried Hollander
Publisher: The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc
ISBN: 1448808200
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
The most recent credit crisis brought to light many problems with our financial system. This book offers plain-spoken explanations of what went wrong during the past crises and explains how to prevent future problems.
