Problems Related to Over-identifying Restrictions for Structural Vector Error Correction Models PDF Download
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Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Lance A. Fisher
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In a structural vector-error correction (VEC) model, it is possible to decompose the shocks into those with permanent and transitory effects on the levels of the variables. Pagan and Pesaran derive the restrictions which the permanent-transitory decomposition of the shocks imposes on the structural VEC model. This paper shows that these restrictions are equivalent to a set of restrictions that are applied in the methods of Gonzalo and Ng and King et al. (KPSW). Using this result, it is shown that the Pagan and Pesaran method can be used to recover the structural shocks with permanent effects identically to those from the Gonzalo and Ng and KPSW methods. In the former case, this is illustrated in the context of Lettau and Ludvigson's consumption model and in the latter case in KPSW's six variable model. There are also two other methods for which the Pagan and Pesaran approach can deliver identical permanent shocks which are also discussed.
Author: Kyungho Jang
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 214
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Impulse response analysis requires the imposition of restrictions on the estimated system in order to identify a shock. Short-run restrictions such that monetary policy does not contemporaneously affect real Gross Domestic Production have been often used. Many economic models, however, imply long-run relations among economic variables (or long-run restrictions such that monetary policy does not affect output in the long period) rather than short-run restrictions. Therefore, empirical results based on long-run restrictions may be more consistent with economic theory than those based on short-run restrictions.
Author: Neil R. Ericsson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Author: Lutz Kilian
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107196574
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 757
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This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Author: Ignacio Arbués
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Languages : en
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Author: Xu Han
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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This paper develops tests for overidentifying restrictions in Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models. The identification of structural shocks in FAVAR can involve infinitely many restrictions as the number of cross sections goes to infinity. Our focus is to test the joint null hypothesis that all the restrictions are satisfied. Conventional tests cannot be used due to the large dimension. We transform the infinite-dimensional problem into a finite-dimensional one by combining the individual statistics across the cross section dimension. We find the limit distribution of our joint test statistic under the null hypothesis and prove that it is consistent against the alternative that a fraction of or all identifying restrictions are violated. The Monte Carlo results show that the joint test statistic has good finite-sample size and power. We implement our tests to an updated version of Stock and Watson's (2005) data set. Our test result is further confirmed by the impulse responses of major macroeconomic variables to the monetary policy shock: the impulse responses based on the specification selected by our test are generally more plausible than those based on the specifications rejected by our test.
Author: Anton Stoyanov Velinov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 111
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The first paper in this thesis deals with the issue of whether there are bubble components in stock prices. This is joint research with Wenjuan Chen (Free Universtiy Berlin). We investigate existing bivariate structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models and test their identifying restriction by means of a Markov switching (MS) in heteroskedasticity model. We use data from six different countries and find that, for five of the country models, the structural restriction is supported at the 5% level. Accordingly, we label the two structural shocks as fundamental and non-fundamental. This paper illustrates the virtue of being able to test structural restrictions in order to justify the relevant shocks of interest. The second paper proceeds in the spirit if the first paper. In particular, five trivariate structural VAR or vector error correction (VEC) versions of the dividend discount model are considered, which are widely used in the literature. A common structural parameter identification scheme is used for all these models, which claims to be able to capture fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to stock prices. A MS-SVAR/SVEC model in heteroskedasticity is used to test this identification scheme. It is found that for two of the five models considered, the structural identification scheme appropriately classifies shocks as being either fundamental or non-fundamental. These are models which use real GDP and real dividends as proxies of real economic activity. The findings are supported by a series of robustness tests. Results of this paper serve as a good guideline when conducting future research in this field. The third thesis paper addresses the question of how sustainable a government's current debt path is by means of a Markov switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller (MS-ADF) model. This model is applied to the debt/GDP series of 16 different countries. Stationarity of this series implies that public debt is on a sustainable path and hence, the government's present value borrowing constraint holds. The MS specification also allows for unit root and explosive states of the debt/GDP process. Two different criteria are used to test the null hypothesis of a unit root in each state. The countries with a sustainable debt path are found to be Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The model indicates that France, Greece, Ireland and Japan have unsustainable debt trajectories. The remaining seven countries, (Argentina, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the US) are all found to have uncertain debt paths. The model is robust to the sample size and number of states used. It is shown that this model is an improvement to existing models investigating this subject.
Author: Imke Bruggemann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is used to investigate several monetary policy issues. While being data-oriented the SVEC framework allows structural modeling of the short-run and long-run properties of the data. The statistical model is estimated with monthly German data for 1975-98 where a structural break is detected in 1984. After splitting the sample, three stable long-run relations are found in each subsample which can be interpreted in terms of a money-demand equation, a policy rule and a relation for real output, respectively. Since the cointegration restrictions imply a particular shape of the long-run covariance matrix this information can be used to distinguish between permanent and transitory innovations in the estimated system. Additional restrictions are introduced to identify a monetary policy shock.
Author: Søren Johansen
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0198774508
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 280
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This monograph is concerned with the statistical analysis of multivariate systems of non-stationary time series of type I. It applies the concepts of cointegration and common trends in the framework of the Gaussian vector autoregressive model.
