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Author: Ray Fair
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804778027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Author: Ray Fair
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804778027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
Get Book Here
Book Description
"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Author: Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780300026917
Category : Election forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 211
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Book Description
Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221
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Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
Author: Andrew Gelman
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191606995
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
Students in the sciences, economics, psychology, social sciences, and medicine take introductory statistics. Statistics is increasingly offered at the high school level as well. However, statistics can be notoriously difficult to teach as it is seen by many students as difficult and boring, if not irrelevant to their subject of choice. To help dispel these misconceptions, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, examples and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and combines chapters such as, 'First week of class', with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then 'Descriptive statistics' , collecting and displaying data; then follows the traditional topics - linear regression, data collection, probability and inference. Part II gives tips on what does and what doesn't work in class: how to set up effective demonstrations and examples, how to encourage students to participate in class and work effectively in group projects. A sample course plan is provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics and sampling.
Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 9780739101261
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 396
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Book Description
Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.
Author: Marleah Blom
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811239029
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 277
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Book Description
This book includes reviewed papers by international scholars from the 2020 International Conference on Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence (held online). The papers have been expanded to provide more details specifically for the book. It is geared to promote ongoing interest and understanding about pattern recognition and artificial intelligence. Like the previous book in the series, this book covers a range of topics and illustrates potential areas where pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be applied. It highlights, for example, how pattern recognition and artificial intelligence can be used to classify, predict, detect and help promote further discoveries related to credit scores, criminal news, national elections, license plates, gender, personality characteristics, health, and more.Chapters include works centred on medical and financial applications as well as topics related to handwriting analysis and text processing, internet security, image analysis, database creation, neural networks and deep learning. While the book is geared to promote interest from the general public, it may also be of interest to graduate students and researchers in the field.
Author: Amnon Cavari
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 1498557376
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 277
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Book Description
The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake critically analyzes the 2016 presidential election. The chapters in this book identify key factors behind the election of Donald J. Trump, explore the unconventional campaign, analyze the unexpected election result, evaluate the forecasting models, and speculate on the effect of the election outcome on politics and governance in the Trump Administration.
Author: Lynn Vavreck
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691139630
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
Author: Andrew Gelman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521861985
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
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Book Description
In this book, prominent social scientists describe quantitative models in economics, history, sociology, political science, and psychology.
