Supplement to the Pre-season Run Size Forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus Nerka) Salmon in 2016 PDF Download
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Author: Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat
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Languages : en
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Author: Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Chilko marine survival, similar to the total Fraser Sockeye survival trend, declined in the 1990's and culminated in the lowest survival on record in the 2009 return year. [...] Analysis and Response Data Fraser Sockeye stock-recruitment data used in the forecast process includes the following: • The last brood year for which full recruitment data (four and five year olds) are available for the 2016 forecast is 2009, with the exception of Harrison Sockeye (three and four year olds) where data are included to the 2010 brood year. [...] Five year old forecasts derived from the sibling model were used for the following stocks and the rationales for using the sibling model are described below: 6 Pacific Region Pre-Season Run Size for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon 2016 • Weaver: a high proportion of five year olds in the original selected model forecast (93%) due to the very low brood year escapement in 2012 (400 EFS), exceptionally l [...] However, if the Larkin model had been used for these stocks in 2015, instead of the Ricker model, then the returns (which were comprised of ~75% four year olds) would have fallen closer to the mid-point of the forecast distribution. [...] Given the exceptional brood year escapement in 2010, the improved performance (return minus forecast) of the Larkin model to predict four year old recruits from the 2011 brood year that returned in 2015, indicates the possibility that these stocks experienced delayed-density dependent survival in the 2011 brood year.
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Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Pre-season run size forecasts of returning Fraser River adult Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2015 were requested by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management. Forecasts are used for pre-season planning purposes and for in-season management. They are most useful early in each stock-group's return migration, before in-season test fisheries are able to provide reliable in-season run size estimates. Forecasts are produced by DFO as stipulated in Annex IV, Chapter 4 of the Pacific Salmon Treaty and are presented by stock and run timing group. This Science Response Report results from the Science Response Process of November 25, 2014 on the Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2015. The 2015 forecast relies on methods of past CSAS processes and publications (Cass et al. 2006; DFO 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013a, 2014a, 2014b; Grant & MacDonald 2013; MacDonald & Grant 2012).
Author: Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
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Category : Sockeye salmon
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Category : Escapement (Fisheries)
Languages : en
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Category : Sockeye salmon
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Author: Sue Grant
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Category : Salmon fisheries
Languages : en
Pages : 13
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Author: Mike Hawkshaw
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780660356099
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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