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Author: Mr.Jean Imbs
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145184901X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff's "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Author: Mr.Jean Imbs
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145184901X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff's "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Jean Imbs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
"This article summarizes our views on the role of an "aggregation bias" in explaining the PPP (i.e. purchasing power parity) Puzzle, in response to the several papers recently written in reaction to our initial contribution. We discuss in particular the criticisms of Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2002) presented in Chen and Engel (2005). We show that their contentions are based on: (i) analytical counter-examples which are not empirically relevant; (ii) simulation results minimizing the extent of "aggregation bias"; (iii) unfounded claims on the impact of measurement errors on our results; and (iv) problematic implementation of small-sample bias corrections. We conclude, as in our original paper, that "aggregation bias" goes a long way towards explaining the PPP puzzle"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Author: David C. Parsley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Convergence (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
"The real exchange rate (RER) has been called the single most important price, yet its behavior exhibits several puzzles. In this project, we use Big Mac prices as a unique prism to study the movement of real exchange rates. Part of our innovation is to match these prices to the prices of individual ingredients. There are a number of advantages associated with our approach. First, unlike the CPI RER, we can measure the Big Mac RER in levels. Second, unlike the CPI RER, for which the attribution to tradable and non-tradable components involves assumptions on the weights and the functional form, we (almost) know the exact composition of a Big Mac, and can estimate the tradable and non-tradable components relatively precisely. Third, we can study the dynamics of the RER in a setting free of: the product-aggregation bias, the temporal aggregation bias, and the bias generated by non-compatible consumption baskets across countries. Fourth that Engel's result that deviations from the law of one price are sole explanation for RER movements does not hold generally. We offer some evidence that departure from the Engel effect can be systematically linked to economic factors"--NBER website
Author: Biing-Shen Kuo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Author: Shiu-Sheng Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Purchasing power parity
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
"Recently, Imbs et. al. (2002) have claimed that much of the purchasing power parity puzzle can be explained by 'aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. First, it clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its applicability to the PPP puzzle. Second, the size of the 'bias' is shown to be much smaller than the simulations in Imbs et. al. (2002) suggest, if we rule out explosive roots in the simulations. Third, we show that the presence of non-persistent measurement error especially in the Imbs et. al. (2002) data can make price series appear less persistent than they really are. Finally, it is now standard to recognize that small-sample bias plagues estimates of speeds of convergence of PPP. After correcting small sample bias by methods proposed by Kilian (1998) and by So and Shin (1999), the half-life estimates indicate that heterogeneity and aggregation bias do not help to solve the PPP puzzle"--NBER website
Author: Kenneth W. Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110701476X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
Author: Mark P. Taylor
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317988205
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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Book Description
The term Purchasing Power Parity may date from the early twentieth century, when it was coined by the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel, but the underlying concept had been enjoying varying degrees of success since its development in sixteenth century Spain. Even towards the end of the twentieth century, and especially since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, PPP and the stability of real exchange rates continued to be the subject of academic debate. This volume brings together essays covering aspects of current thinking on Purchasing Power Parity, from the various ways in which to test for its existence, to its appearance in different economies around the world, to examinations of the explanations given when PPP does not appear to hold This book was published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Author: Luis Molinas Sosa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108897924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
