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Author: Mr. Anil Ari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country fundamentals. Second, fiscal and monetary policies helped alleviate output losses during the pandemic in all European countries but to a varying extent. Third, shallower recessions in emerging market economies in Europe can be attributed to higher underlying growth and younger populations. Fourth, fiscal multipliers were higher in countries where above-the-line measures accounted for a larger share of the total fiscal package, the size of the total fiscal package was smaller, and inequality and informality were greater, as well as in countries with IMF-supported program during the pandemic.
Author: Mr. Anil Ari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country fundamentals. Second, fiscal and monetary policies helped alleviate output losses during the pandemic in all European countries but to a varying extent. Third, shallower recessions in emerging market economies in Europe can be attributed to higher underlying growth and younger populations. Fourth, fiscal multipliers were higher in countries where above-the-line measures accounted for a larger share of the total fiscal package, the size of the total fiscal package was smaller, and inequality and informality were greater, as well as in countries with IMF-supported program during the pandemic.
Author: Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513570919
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).
Author: Sophia Chen
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513549644
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people's mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.
Author: André Sapir
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
All European Union countries are undergoing severe output losses as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, but some have been hurt more than others. In response to the crisis, EU leaders have agreed on a Recovery and Resilience Fund (RFF), which will help all EU countries, but those hit hardest will benefit most.This Policy Contribution explores why some countries have been hit economically more than others by COVID-19. Using statistical techniques described in the technical appendices, several potential explanations were examined: the severity of lockdown measures, the structure of national economies, the fiscal capacity of governments to counter the collapse in economic activity, and the quality of governance in different countries. We found that the strictness of lockdown measures, the share of tourism in the economy and the quality of governance all play a significant role in explaining differences in economic losses in different EU countries. However, public indebtedness has not played a role, suggesting that that the European Central Bank's pandemic emergency purchase programme has been effective.We used our results to explore why some southern EU countries have been more affected by the COVID-19 crisis than some northern countries. Depending on the pairs of countries or country groupings that we compared, we found that differences in GDP losses were between 30 and 50 percent down to lockdown strictness, between 35 and 45 percent to the quality of governance and between 15 and 25 percent down to tourism. This could have implications for the allocation of the RRF between recovery and resilience expenditures. Supporting the recovery through a combination of demand and supply initiatives is important to ensure that countries rebound as quickly as possible from the COVID-19 crisis, without leaving too much permanent damage to their economies. But in many countries, especially some of the southern countries hit hardest by the COVID-19 crisis, resilience is a major sticking point. Too often, in some of these countries, the poor quality of governance has had a negative impact on their resilience, as the relatively large size of their GDP shocks has demonstrated. It is crucial therefore that RRF programmes devote sufficient attention (and resources) to improving the quality of governance in these countries.
Author: Magdalena Tomala
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000619966
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
This book analyses Europe’s COVID-19 response provided by governments and societies, to assess its influence on the economy from both a short- and long-term perspective. The authors argue that there are three key factors that determine how successful a given country is. The first is the determination and effectiveness of the government. The second is the capacity of states and their healthcare systems in times of crisis. The third is society’s willingness to adhere to emergency measures and to cooperate with authorities. The book examines the government policy of EU states during the pandemic; studies the behaviour of EU societies; reveals the influence of the pandemic crisis on the economy of EU states and formulates a successful strategy to counteract the challenges wrought by the pandemic. The book will appeal to scholars and researchers engaged in the fields of economic and political science, global studies and international relations. Furthermore, it will also be addressed to policy makers of European States as it contains a complex analysis of their policy responses and the corresponding impact on European economy and society.
Author: Axel Börsch-Supan
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 311113590X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic posed a major threat to the well-being of older Europeans. Its economic and social effects, however, varied across countries. This multidisciplinary book presents the first results of analyses that combined the renowned longitudinal database of SHARE with new data from two telephone surveys that were uniquely conducted during the pandemic. The analyses address important policy-related issues, such as: Did social distancing destabilize family and social support networks? Did the pandemic increase health, social and economic inequality? Who had to forego essential health care because of the pandemic? Did lockdown affect one's physical and mental health? Did the shift towards remote work affect workload and well-being? Were different housing conditions related to the spread of the virus?
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513587900
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Author: Davide Furceri
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : COVID-19 (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
Author: Neven Vidaković
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9783030754464
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 347
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Book Description
This book examines economic policies utilized within Southeast Europe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering countries both within and outside the European Union, the human and economic cost of the pandemic is calculated using macroeconomic models from a short and longer term perspective. The economic policies used during the pandemic are analyzed, alongside crisis management approaches, to highlight the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal policies and potential future economic solutions for the post COVID-19 period. This book aims to provide policy recommendations based on findings from Southeast Europe. It is relevant to researchers and policymakers involved in economic policy and the political economy, as well as anyone interested in the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Author: Pragyan Deb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513550251
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.
