Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries PDF Download
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Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463923287
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463923287
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357525
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Author: Mr.Valerio Crispolti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616354127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513568817
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 146396854X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper provides a historical perspective on the role of international reserves in low-income countries as a cushion against large external shocks over the last three decades - including the current global crisis. The results suggest that international reserves have played a role in buffering external shocks, with the resulting macroeconomic costs varying with the nature of the shock, the economy's structural characteristics, and the level of reserves.
Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484325443
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves differs from the measures often used by practitioners. Second, under plausible calibrations the model is consistent with the rule of thumb that reserves should be close to three months of imports. Third, simple linear rules can capture most of the welfare gains from optimal reserve management. Fourth, policymakers should place more emphasis on how to use reserves in response to shocks than on the reserve target itself.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529686
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63
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Book Description
This paper discusses the common policies needed for the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC growth was subdued in 2015. It slowed to 1.6 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2014, because of reduced public investment and lower oil production. Policies to counter the oil-price shock need to focus on fiscal consolidation and real-economy reforms. In the wake of the oil-price shock, monetary financing has been the primary response tool. Fiscal policy coordination among members should be strengthened, and fiscal discipline enforcement is needed. Real-economy reforms, focusing on improving the business climate and boosting private investment, are also needed to preserve macroeconomic stability.
Author: Mr.Alfredo Cuevas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475512090
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 98
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Book Description
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2012 Article IV consultation with Zimbabwe, the following documents have been released and are included in this package
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484377672
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 113
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Book Description
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Ghana continued at a robust pace of 8 percent in 2012 amid rising fiscal and external imbalances. Fiscal pressures came to the fore in a mounting public sector wage bill and costly energy subsidies that pushed the deficit close to 12 percent of GDP. The growth momentum continues into 2013, with increased oil production projected to keep overall GDP growth close to 8 percent. Non-oil growth is likely to decelerate, however, as a result of energy disruptions and high real interest rates.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555938
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133
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Book Description
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that after significant real economic growth volatility and high inflation through 2009, growth in Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe has become more stable and inflation has reached record low levels. Real economic growth slowed to 4 percent in 2012, reflecting a scaling back of project financing and foreign direct investment as many of São Tomé and Príncipe’s key partners were hard hit by the global economic slowdown. Growth is projected to remain unchanged at 4 percent in 2013 in light of lingering uncertainties stemming from the challenging external environment.
