Author: Albert Saiz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
Housing markets have been established as fundamental to understanding business cycles, financial market stability, labor mobility, household wealth, individual portfolio allocation, and urban dynamics. What determines local housing supply elasticities and prices? In this paper I give empirical content to the concept of land availability by processing satellite-generated data on elevation and presence of water bodies to precisely estimate the amount of developable land in each metro area. I demonstrate that development is effectively curtailed by the presence of slopes above 15% and that most areas that are widely regarded as supply-inelastic are, in fact, severely land-constrained by their topography. Furthermore, the extent of topographical constraints correlates positively and strongly with regulatory barriers to development. Immigration, high taxes, politics, and quot;communitarianquot; social capital are also predictive of more restrictive residential land regulations. I estimate a system of equations where housing prices, construction, and regulations are all determined endogenously. Housing supply elasticities can be well-characterized as functions of both physical and regulatory constraints, which in turn are endogenous to prices and past growth. The results provide operational estimates of local supply elasticities in all major US metropolitan areas.
Author: C. Peter Rydell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
Analyzes the price elasticity of the supply of rental housing services, defined as the percentage increase in supply associated with a one percent increase in price. The purpose of the report is to predict the price changes associated with supply responses to shifts in demand. Section II analyzes each component of supply response separately. It presents price elasticities for the repair, inventory, and occupancy responses to demand shifts. It reviews the literature on all three and offers new estimates for the second and third (the estimates are based on the analysis of Annual Housing Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau reported in Appendix B). Section III combines the three individual supply elasticities into a composite elasticity. It accomplishes the integration using a model of housing-market responses to demand shifts presented in Appendix C. The model was built during the Housing Assistance Supply Experiment to explain the housing market's response to demand shifts caused by an experimental housing allowance program.
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030116743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author: William C. Wheaton
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
MSA-level estimates of a housing supply schedule must offer a solution to the twin problems of simultaneity and stationarity that plague the time series data for local housing prices and stock. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is shown to provide a solution to stationarity, but not simultaneity. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is suggested to handle both the stationarity and endogeneity problems. Such models also nicely distinguish between (very) long run elasticities and a variety of short term impacts. We estimate these models separately for 68 US MSA using quarterly data on housing prices and residential construction permits since 1980. The results provide long run supply elasticity estimates for each market that are better bounded than previous panel-based attempts and also correspond with much conventional thought. We find these elasticities are well explained by geographic and regulatory barriers, and that inelastic markets exhibit greater price volatility over the last two decades. Using the models' short run dynamics we make several forecasts of prices over the next decade. In current dollars, some MSA will still not recover to recent peak (2007) house price levels by 2022, while others should exceed it by as much as 70%.
Author: Raven E. Saks
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Employment
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Author: Bengte L. Evenson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
The speed with which its house prices respond to real economic shocks is critical to the functioning of an economic market. This speed is determined relative to the magnitudes of house price changes on the off-equilibrium path, as the market adjusts. When such changes are caused by an unexpected shift in housing demand, which is a substantial component of the variation in house prices, the magnitudes are determined by the elasticity of housing supply. I examine local housing-supply dynamics in each of 47 U.S. metropolitan-area housing markets using a unique market-level panel dataset. The data are analyzed with a conditional vector-autoregression, which characterizes the dynamic responses of housing price and stock to an increase in housing demand caused by a shift in employment. These response time-paths are used to create measures of short-, medium-, and long-run supply elasticities. Both the time-paths and the implied elasticities vary widely. I use several area characteristics to explain the variation in the supply elasticity measures across metropolitan areas. The results suggest that an area's population, land area, historical growth rate, region, January temperature, age of housing stock and incentive to regulate housing are all important determinants of a market's house-price response.
Author: Christopher J. Mayer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Author: Xiangling Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
We report supply elasticity estimates of residential property (houses and apartments) for Local Government Areas (LGAs) in metropolitan Sydney. Using annual data for 1991-2012, the average supply elasticity estimate across all LGAs is 0.2 for houses and 0.8 for apartments. The supply of houses is inelastic in all 43 LGAs; in contrast apartment supply is elastic - greater than unity - in about one-third of LGAs. We develop a model to explain the cross-section variation in supply elasticity across LGAs. For houses, supply elasticity is negatively related to an LGA's population density, the time taken by a Local Council to process a development application and to various measures of the amount of land in an LGA that is unavailable for new housing development. Variation in supply elasticity for apartments across LGAs is unrelated to any of the available regressors.
Author: Edward L. Glaeser
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226030586
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Author: Yikun Huang
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781361340851
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate" by Yikun, Huang, 黃逸昆, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In Hong Kong, housing prices have increased significantly in recent years. Amongst all the reasons for such significant increase, low interest rate has been recognized as one of the major reasons. Many studies have provided empirical evidence to support the negative relationship between interest rate and housing prices. However, in the US, recent studies (Glaeser, Gottlieb and Gyourko, 2010; Kuttner, 2012) show that the observed effect of interest rate changes on housing prices is much less than that predicted by the standard user cost model. According to the Glaeser et al. (2010), there are three potential explanations for the low housing price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuation. First, increase in land (and therefore housing) supply elasticity can reduce the effects of the demand-side variables, including interest rate. Second, high risk premium for long term mortgage rate in the US makes housing prices less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Third, the long-term mortgage contracts in the US cannot reflect the impact of frequent short term interest rate fluctuation. Among these three potential hypotheses proposed to explain the lower than expected housing price sensitivity to interest rate changes, land supply elasticity is more relevant to Hong Kong. By focusing on Hong Kong's housing market, this thesis examines the relationship between land supply elasticity and the sensitivity of housing prices towards interest rate changes. When demand shift due to interest rate change, land supply (and therefore housing supply) may respond accordingly to reduce the impact of interest rate change. The more elastic the supply is, the weaker the housing price sensitivity to interest rate may be. Alternatively, housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change when land supply is inelastic. To be more precisely, this study provides an empirical test on whether land supply elasticity reduces housing price sensitivity towards interest changes. Two approaches are applied to provide clear pictures of housing price sensitivity. First, data from different housing subsectors with different land supply elasticity are used for the empirical tests. The results show that prices of large units in the Hong Kong Island are significantly more sensitive to interest rate change, compared to those of small units in the New Territories. This is consistent with the implication of our hypothesis because new land for building luxurious units in Hong Kong Island is limited while there are relatively more lands available in the New Territories for smaller mass residential units. Second, in Hong Kong, all new land supply comes from the government in the form of leasehold land. Hence, government's land supply policy has a major impact on land supply elasticity. For example, there was a period of restricted land supply before the handover in 1997, which effectively reduced land supply elasticity. On the other hand, the Application List land sales system adopted by the Hong Kong government from 2000 to 2013 should increase the flexibility in land supply. Therefore, this study makes use of these policy changes as nature experiments to investigate the effect of land supply elasticity on housing price sensitivity towards interest fluctuation. The results show that housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change during the land supply restriction period and more insensitive
