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Author: Anna Sznajderska
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Asymmetric effects in a monetary policy rule could appear due to asymmetric preferences of the central bank or/and due to nonlinearities in the economic system. It might be suspected that monetary authorities are more aggressive to the inflation rate when it is above its target level than when it is below. It also seems probable that monetary authorities have different preferences and react more strongly when the level of economic activity is low than when it is high. In this paper we investigate whether the reaction function of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is asymmetric according to the level of inflation gap and the level of output gap. Moreover, we test whether these asymmetries might possibly stem from the nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. Threshold models are applied and two cases of unknown and known threshold value are investigated.
Author: Anna Sznajderska
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Asymmetric effects in a monetary policy rule could appear due to asymmetric preferences of the central bank or/and due to nonlinearities in the economic system. It might be suspected that monetary authorities are more aggressive to the inflation rate when it is above its target level than when it is below. It also seems probable that monetary authorities have different preferences and react more strongly when the level of economic activity is low than when it is high. In this paper we investigate whether the reaction function of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is asymmetric according to the level of inflation gap and the level of output gap. Moreover, we test whether these asymmetries might possibly stem from the nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. Threshold models are applied and two cases of unknown and known threshold value are investigated.
Author: Ioannis Pragidis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
We empirically test the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks on the growth rate of real industrial production and explicitly test for different types of asymmetries in monetary policy implementation for two major international economies, the U.S. and Brazil. We depart from the conventional method of VAR analysis to estimate unanticipated monetary shocks and instead we use a combination of other methods. We first identify the Taylor rule that best describes the reaction of both central banks and then we test both forward looking linear and nonlinear models concluding that a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) forward looking model of the Taylor rule best describes the US FED Funds rate while a linear Taylor rule with the inclusion of a dummy variable best describes the reaction of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). We then use in-sample forecast errors in order to derive or identify the unexpected monetary shocks for both countries. In line with Cover (1992), we use these shocks to explore any asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy on the growth rate of real industrial production. We also find asymmetries between anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks as well as between effects of positive and negative shocks.
Author: Richard Arden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock, measured by a change in interest rates, affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non-linearities which we have introduced explicitly.
Author: Elizaveta Lukmanova
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783659665516
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Empirical studies have documented the presence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy. In this monograph both empirical and theoretical research is conducted. Firstly, the literature on the asymmetric efects of monetary policy is surveyed. Secondly, an empirical analysis is done: the U.S. data is tested for the asymmetric efects of monetary policy using a Markov-switching model. Finally, as the main part, a theoretical analysis is conducted using a standard New Keynesian model with the Zero Lower Bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. The issue of asymmetries is important for the policymakers in order to conduct a monetary policy in the most effective way.
Author: Troy Davig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preemptive policy actions. In a conventional calibrated model, preemptive policy shifts agents' expectations, enhancing the ability of policy to offset demand shocks; this yields a quantitatively significant "preemption dividend."
Author: Tiff Macklem
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Recent empirical studies examining the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on economic activity do not systematically control for the non-monetary sources of fluctuations as well as the endogenous component of monetary policy. The evidence of asymmetry could simply reflect the failure to control for these omitted factors. In this paper, we reconsider the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the context of a small open economy using information from the yield curve to measure the stance of domestic monetary policy, while allowing both real and monetary foreign shocks to have asymmetric effects on output. Our principal finding is that while controlling for foreign factors dampens the asymmetry in the effects of exogenous domestic monetary shocks, there is nonetheless strong evidence of asymmetry when the effects of the exogenous and systematic components of the yield spread are considered jointly. We find no evidence of asymmetry in the effects of real factors.
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Michael B. Devereux
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451860269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect is smaller at lower financing costs of fiscal policy. Using threshold regression models on U.S. data, the paper provides new evidence that expansionary government spending is more conducive to short-run growth when real rates are low. It also finds asymmetric effects on interest rates and inflation, and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.
Author: Giovanni Lombardo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper studies the effect on monetary policy of a non-homogeneous degree of competition across the (two) members of a monetary union. In particular, we assess the welfare loss brought about by the use of a simple interest rate rule that does not take into account such structural differences. Our results show that, ceteris paribus, the welfare-maximizing central bank should react more aggressively to the inflation pressure generated by the more competitive economy. We extend the results of Benigno (2003) in two ways. First, we show that, if the degree of competition differs across countries, the optimal rule could involve a larger weight on the more "flexible" country. Second, we allow for a non-unitelastic demand for import. We show that this can alter Benigno's results even under asymmetric degree of competition. Our study suggests that the size of the welfare losses due to the neglect of these asymmetries crucially depends on their actual combination. Furthermore, we show that if information on the true extent of the asymmetries is incomplete, the symmetric rule could outperform the optimal rule.
Author: Anna Florio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The paper deals with the asymmetric effects on output of tight and easy monetary policy: the output reduction following a negative monetary policy shock appears bigger than the expansion induced by similar sized positive shock. The paper first reviews historical evidence of asymmetry, focusing on the United States, Japan and Italy. This is followed by a review of the econometric literature on monetary policy asymmetry and consideration of the theoretical reasons that can explain this asymmetry.
