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Author: Liviu Horovitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
During the night of February 23, 2022, Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, seeking to capture Kyiv within days. A few hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a “special military operation.” In his speech, the Kremlin leader warned those who tried to stand in Russia’s way that they would face “never seen” consequences – a statement many interpreted as a thinly veiled threat to employ nuclear weapons. Our analytical bottom line is that, compared to 2022, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has toned down. In this fourth issue of the chronology we analysed all statements of the past five months, from February 2023 until June 2023. Both escalatory statements we identified in this time period concerned the Russian stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Otherwise, the tensions remained at the level of warnings, spotted with a few de-escalatory statements. Overall, with only two escalatory statements from Moscow, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric was less threatening compared to the five months prior which saw eight Russian and one Western escalatory statements.
Author: Liviu Horovitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
During the night of February 23, 2022, Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, seeking to capture Kyiv within days. A few hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a “special military operation.” In his speech, the Kremlin leader warned those who tried to stand in Russia’s way that they would face “never seen” consequences – a statement many interpreted as a thinly veiled threat to employ nuclear weapons. Our analytical bottom line is that, compared to 2022, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has toned down. In this fourth issue of the chronology we analysed all statements of the past five months, from February 2023 until June 2023. Both escalatory statements we identified in this time period concerned the Russian stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Otherwise, the tensions remained at the level of warnings, spotted with a few de-escalatory statements. Overall, with only two escalatory statements from Moscow, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric was less threatening compared to the five months prior which saw eight Russian and one Western escalatory statements.
Author: Liviu Horovitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia's regime.
Author: Adérito Vicente
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031322215
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261
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Book Description
This book explores how Russia’s War on Ukraine has changed the global nuclear order. The Russian aggression against Ukraine questioned the values of the liberal regimes and systems upon which the global nuclear order is built. At the heart of this nuclear order lies the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which remains until today the cornerstone of the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime. In this context, the book examines new challenges and threats to the global nuclear order. It discusses the deterioration of nuclear norms, as well as the increasing number of the states further challenging the NPT regime by attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The book further sheds light on a growing number of states trying to resolve their territorial claims using the nuclear coercion and the umbrella function of their nuclear arsenals. The authors present the loopholes in the existing arms control system and the arms trade, which became obvious in the course of the war, and analyze the further split between the supporters of the NPT and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Srutinizing the deepening polarization of the supporters and the opponents of nuclear weapons, the book includes a new debate about the competing narratives on nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Finally, the volume discusses the development and the increase of new missiles and disruptive technologies such as hypersonic missiles, drones, and artificial intelligence. This book will appeal to students and scholars of international relations and political science in general, and security studies, military and defense studies, peace and conflict studies, and foreign policy in particular, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of nuclear deterrence, the global nuclear order, and the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine.
Author: Paul van Hooft
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The brief’s main conclusions are concerning: there are an increasing number of pathways that could lead to inadvertent escalation. Russia’s expenditure of dual-capable missile stocks, the shifting balance of power in Europe to the advantage of NATO, and NATO’s enlargement bringing it closer to the Kola Peninsula increases the likelihood that Russia faces “use-it-or-lose-it” choices. The Russian armed forces have been overburdened and one could expect civil-military relations to be disturbed. The Russian military is offensively minded, with the nuclear class developing its own parochial ideology. Russian C3I systems are degraded through sanctions and direct attacks. Finally, Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine, and used dual-capable delivery systems, from the same locations as its nuclear arsenal. As NATO-Europe continues to support Ukraine, we suggest a series of measures to avoid inadvertent escalation. Among others, we stress that caution be taken with NATO’s nuclear and conventional posture, including the placement of conventional missiles within range of threatening Russia’s nuclear capabilities. The authors also argue that positive measures, such as military-to-military contacts, should be maintained.
Author: Barry R. Posen
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 080146837X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Author: Jeffrey A Larsen
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804790914
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo
Author: Brad Roberts
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781952565014
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
While the United States and its allies put their military focus on the post-9/11 challenges of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, Russia and China put their military focus onto the United States and the risks of regional wars that they came to believe they might have to fight against the United States. Their first priority was to put their intellectual houses in order-that is, to adapt military thought and strategic planning to the new problem. The result is a set of ideas about how to bring the United States and its allies to a "culminating point" where they choose to no longer run the costs and risks of continued war. This is the "red theory of victory." Beginning in the second presidential term of Obama administration, the U.S. military focus began to shift, driven by rising Russian and Chinese military assertiveness and outspoken opposition to the regional security orders on their peripheries. But U.S. military thought has been slow to catch up. As a recent bipartisan congressional commission concluded, the U.S. intellectual house is dangerously out of order for this new strategic problem. There is no Blue theory of victory. Such a theory should explain how the United States and its allies can strip away the confidence of leaders in Moscow and Beijing (and Pyongyang) in their "escalation calculus"-that is, that they will judge the costs too high, the benefits to low, and the risks incalculable. To develop, improve, and implement the needed new concepts requires a broad campaign of activities by the United States and full partnership with its allies.
Author: Frans Osinga
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9462654190
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 538
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Book Description
This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
Author: Samuel Charap
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 1977407544
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Book Description
Understanding Russia’s grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers assess the depth and nature of potential conflicts between Russia and the United States and avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow’s actions and reactions. The authors of this report review Russia’s declared grand strategy, evaluate the extent to which Russian behavior is consistent with stated strategy, and outline implications for the United States.
Author: Jensine Andresen
Publisher: Ethics International Press
ISBN: 1871891361
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 433
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Book Description
This unique book takes both inductive and deductive approaches to the topic of extraterrestrial ethics. Inductively, it asks what kind of ethics an advanced, intelligent extraterrestrial species might display. Deductively, it asks how human beings should transform their own understanding of ethics to prepare for widespread contact with an advanced extraterrestrial species. Using the ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics proposed by physicist and philosopher David Bohm, Extraterrestrial Ethics considers how an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) may view ethical concerns relating to humankind. The book examines two areas of concern: nuclear technologies; and the militarization and weaponization of space. The text of the Fiscal Year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (FY22 NDAA) in the United States clearly states that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) have been reported at sites associated with nuclear weapons, nuclear-powered ships and submarines, nuclear power generating stations, etc., suggesting that ETI is very concerned about the human use of nuclear technologies. Furthermore, the more ubiquitous level of UAP sightings by the U.S. military over the last few years, as documented in the June 2021 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in the U.S., suggest that ETI also is concerned about rapid acceleration relating to the militarization and weaponization of space. The book concludes by advocating a normative approach to de-militarize space.
