New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in Newly Industrialized Countries (NICS) PDF Download
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Author: Chin Sian Lai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 182
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Book Description
The NKPC has become popular as a theory for understanding the inflation dynamics and become a popular adopted research topic in evaluating its empirical performance. Despite wide research of NKPC on developed countries, less study have been done in developing countries, especially on countries that are moving forward to industrialized economy. This study is dedicated to the estimation of NKPC in NICs using generalized method of moments (GMM), in which the expected inflation rate is examined by actual value. The main finding in this study is that the NKPC fits NICs data relatively well. The output gap and expected inflation rate do contribute to the inflation dynamics in NKPC model. The results in this study also indicated that the estimated NKPC has been relatively stable over sample period.
Author: Chin Sian Lai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 182
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Book Description
The NKPC has become popular as a theory for understanding the inflation dynamics and become a popular adopted research topic in evaluating its empirical performance. Despite wide research of NKPC on developed countries, less study have been done in developing countries, especially on countries that are moving forward to industrialized economy. This study is dedicated to the estimation of NKPC in NICs using generalized method of moments (GMM), in which the expected inflation rate is examined by actual value. The main finding in this study is that the NKPC fits NICs data relatively well. The output gap and expected inflation rate do contribute to the inflation dynamics in NKPC model. The results in this study also indicated that the estimated NKPC has been relatively stable over sample period.
Author: Robert A. Hart
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521801423
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Comprehensive economic evaluation of overtime working includes theoretical, empirical and policy aspects based on international evidence.
Author: Ilker Domaç
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Budget deficits
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
June 1998 This study of inflation in Albania yields several conclusions: * Fighting inflation and keeping exports competitive requires cuts in the budget deficit and credit to government. * The strong seasonal inflation can be somewhat ameliorated by improving infrastructure and customs services. * Structural reforms and improved infrastructure should be part of all stabilization programs, because growth reduces inflation. Domac and Elbirt investigate the behavior and determinants of inflation in Albania, using three approaches. They * Decompose inflation into four components: seasonal, cyclical, trend, and random. * Rely on the widely used Granger causality test, using disaggregated data on both the consumer price index (CPI) and key economic variables. * Apply cointegration and error-correction techniques to the process of inflation, using a simple theoretical model. Using the first approach, they conclude that inflation exhibits strong seasonal patterns associated with agriculture seasonality. Peaks and troughs of monetary aggregates correspond to those of inflation, with a two-month lag. The exchange rate also exhibits stable seasonality, reaching its trough in August and tending to depreciate early in the year. The Granger causality test shows M1 (currency in circulation plus demand deposits) and the exchange rate to have predictive content for most items of the CPI. The empirical findings also indicate that credit to government is a good predictor of medical care, transportation, and communication prices. But causality also runs from the prices of bread and cereals, recreation, education, and culture to credit to government, since these items, at least during the period under consideration, are subsidized and contribute to the budget deficit. And causality runs from credit to government to the price of nontradables, highlighting the fact that an increase in the fiscal deficit would undermine Albania's competitiveness by producing appreciation in the real exchange rate. The results of cointegration and error-correction techniques confirm that, in the long run, inflation is positively related to both money supply and the exchange rate, and negatively related to real income. A 1-percent increase in M1, for example, will raise inflation by 0.41 percent; a 1-percent depreciation of the exchange rate will increase inflation by 0.17 percent; whereas a 1-percent increase in real income will reduce inflation by 0.25 percent. Inflation adjusts to its equilibrium value fairly rapidly-25 percent a month. The impact of the exchange rate on inflation occurs a month later, while the impact of real income and money take place two and four months later, respectively. The findings support the conventional elements of a typical stabilization program. Fighting inflation and keeping exports competitive requires reducing both the budget deficit and credit to government. The strong seasonal nature of inflation can be somewhat ameliorated by improving infrastructure and customs services. Structural reforms and improvements in infrastructure should be part of any stabilization program because economic growth is an antidote to inflation. This paper-a joint product of the Albania/Croatia Country Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to enhance the knowledge on the inflationary process and its practical implications. The authors may be contacted at
[email protected] or
[email protected].
Author: Dennis Rodgers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Jeremy Travis
Publisher: The Urban Insitute
ISBN: 9780877667506
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 424
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Book Description
The iron law of imprisonment is that “they all come back”. In 2002, more than 630,000 individuals left U.S. federal and state prisons. Thirty years ago, only 150,000 did. In this study, Travis decribes the new realities of imprisonment, and explores the impact of returning prisoners on seven policy domains: public safety, families and children, work, housing, public health, civic identity, and community capacity. Travis proposes a new architecture for the criminal justice system, organized around five principles of reentry, to encourage change and spur innovation.
Author: Chetan Ghate
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 8132228405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 653
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Book Description
This book presents research that applies contemporary monetary theory and state-of-the-art econometric methods to the analysis of the monetary and financial aspects of the Indian economy and the impact of monetary policy on economic performance. Indian monetary policy has attracted significant attention from Indian and international macroeconomists over the last several years. Interest in how monetary policy influences economic performance and how monetary policy is conducted in India is growing. The prospects for further financial sector reform and ongoing inflation in India have sparked new interest in the role of money and monetary policy in India among economists, policy makers and students alike. The book should also interest economists outside India because it studies monetary economics in a major emerging market economy and makes advances in the analysis of how financial market imperfections and structural constraints influence the effects of monetary policy.
Author: Ila Patnaik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484340345
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Emerging market policy makers have been concerned about the financial stability implications of financial globalization. These concerns are focused on behavior under stressed conditions. Do tail events in the home country trigger off extreme responses by foreign investors – are foreign investors `fair weather friends'? In this, is there asymmetry between the response of foreign investors to very good versus very bad days? Do foreign investors have a major impact on domestic markets through large inflows or outflows – are they ‘big fish in a small pond’? Do extreme events in world markets induce extreme behavior by foreign investors, thus making them vectors of crisis transmission? We propose a modified event study methodology focused on tail events, which yields evidence on these questions. The results, for India, do not suggest that financial globalization has induced instability on the equity market.
Author: Rahul Anand
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498371558
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated reduced-form general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation and core inflation decreases by about three fourths within one year as core inflation catches up with headline inflation. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role of food inflation in informing inflation expectations and wage setting. Analysis suggests that in order to durably reduce the current high inflation, the monetary policy stance needs to remain tight for a considerable length of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy.
Author: Laurence M. Ball
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455263389
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Author: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691170649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 482
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Book Description
An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomicsBrings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic researchFollows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approachAddresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crisesUses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical modelsFeatures a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of modelsAccompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
