Multi-scale Climate Change Modeling Study Over the Greater Horn of Africa PDF Download
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Author: Jared Heath Bowden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Keywords: climate change, regional climate modeling, empirical analysis, Greater Horn of Africa.
Author: Jared Heath Bowden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 312
Get Book Here
Book Description
Keywords: climate change, regional climate modeling, empirical analysis, Greater Horn of Africa.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
There has been limited regional climate modeling (RCM) studies of climate change over the Greater Horn of Africa because of challenges of modeling tropical precipitation with a limited observational rainfall network. This study customized a RCM model with particular interest in precipitation process using several precipitation data sets for validation. Various convective schemes and micro-physics sensitivities were performed. It was found that the convective scheme of MIT-Emanuel in conjunction with reducing the relative humidity threshold for cloud formation provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals and temperature bias when compared with observations. The above RCM customization was run for approximately 40 years to determine the models ability to capture inter-annual variability and the possible climate change fingerprint over the region. The RCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability for all places and seasons for temperature. However, the positive precipitation bias limits the models ability to capture inter-annual variability of precipitation. Despite, the low inter-annual precipitation correlation, the RCM is able to simulate large scale changes in the rainfall pattern associated with the possible climate change fingerprint and the annual precipitation cycle associated with the monsoon. Since the model was able to capture possible changes associated with climate change, the model was downscaled for climate change simulations. The Finite Volume GCM (FVGCM) is used as the lateral boundary forcing for A2 scenario RCM climate change simulations. The FVGCM was compared with the other IPCC models and found to perform within the range during the contemporary climate for circulation, precipitation and temperature. Our analysis concluded that the FVGCM has a cool and wet bias compared to the other GCMs. The RCM future climate simulations, using an A2 emission scenario, show that average temp.
Author: Christopher Bryan Skinner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
There is now unequivocal evidence that the Earth's climate is changing as a result of human activities. These changes pose a number of potential risks for human and natural systems. Within the Sahel, a semi-arid region of northern Africa that is home to over 50 million people, climate-related stresses on human systems are exacerbated by a limited capacity for climate adaptation and persistent uncertainty in projections of future climate. In this dissertation I utilize a suite of numerical modeling techniques in conjunction with observational data to study the multi-scale interactions that shape rainfall and atmospheric circulation in northern West Africa. This dissertation consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, I use an ensemble of general circulation model experiments to examine the relative roles of different global drivers in shaping projected changes in West African climate. Specifically, I assess the response of precipitation and atmospheric circulation in West Africa to the individual influences of direct atmospheric radiative forcing from projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and greenhouse gas-induced sea surface temperature forcing. In the second chapter, I evaluate the simulation of synoptic-scale weather disturbances, known as African easterly waves, in the latest generation of global climate models. African easterly waves serve as an important source of Sahel rainfall and play a critical role in Saharan dust transport and the initiation of the most intense Atlantic basin hurricanes. In this work I identify key reasons for biases in the simulation of African easterly waves, and offer several new insights for improved climate modeling efforts in West Africa. In the third chapter, I explore the response of atmospheric circulation in West Africa to projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Models exhibit a robust increase in monsoon strength and African easterly wave activity in response to the pattern of future warming in West Africa. These results suggest the possibility of a number of future climate-related impacts on human and natural systems in West Africa and the greater Atlantic basin.
Author: Philippe Gourbesville
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811072183
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1205
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Book Description
This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.
Author: Kenneth M. Strzepek
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.
Author: Lena M. Tallaksen
Publisher: Gulf Professional Publishing
ISBN: 9780444516886
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 634
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Book Description
The majority of the examples are taken from regions where the rivers run most of the year.
Author: Simon Nampindo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 471
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Book Description
Assessment and management of ecosystem services demands diverse knowledge of the system components. Land use change occurring mainly through deforestation, expansion of agriculture and unregulated extraction of natural resources are the greatest challenges of the Congo basin and yet is central to supporting over 100 million people. This study undertook to implement an integrated modeling of multiscale ecosystems of central African watersheds and model the impact of anthropogenic factors on elephant population in Greater Virunga landscape. The study was conducted at varied scales, regional, landscape, and community. Regional study included watershed analysis and hydrological assessment using remotely sensed data implemented in Geographical information System. Species distribution modeling using generalized linear models using presence only and pseudo absence data was also done at regional scale. The major findings were that ecosystem services for the Congo basin are spatially varied and there are significant differences in their distribution of ecosystem services at a subwatershed level three and six and the distribution of endangered and threatened species is more concentrated in the central part of the basin and most of these species occur mainly inside protected areas. Poaching and sustained civil wars were the biggest threat to elephant conservation in the region. Improvement in law enforcement, monitoring, and increasing household incomes for communities living adjacent to protected areas would help to reduce the impact of poaching on elephant population dynamics. Climate change did not show immediate direct impacts on the elephant population, but thermal and latent heat effects could be occurring. A change in habitat, however, showed resulted in an upward trend in elephant population for all age classes. The local communities heavily depend on these ecosystem services for their livelihoods. It is therefore recommended that reasonable financing to strengthen law enforcement and monitoring is done, multiple policy options should be considered in order to maximize ecosystem benefits. Creation of partnerships and research networks need to be promoted. Existing transboundary collaboration initiatives should continue and be supported by the donor community in order to build peace and dram support for wildlife and wild habitat protection.
Author: Jonathan I. Matondo
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030315436
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
This book presents a comprehensive overview of climate variability and change in Africa, and includes impact assessments and case studies from integration frameworks, with a particular focus on climate, agriculture and water resources. Richly illustrated, the book highlights case studies from western, eastern and southern African region, and explores related development policies. Climate change adaptation research, prediction, and reanalysis are also addressed
Author: Kenneth M. Strzepek
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.
Author: Zoé A. Hamstead
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030631311
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 190
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Book Description
This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change.
