Author: Steven Kamin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking, Central
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Author: Steven B. Kamin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Exchange-rate based stabilizations, while useful in accelerating the disinflation process, typically lead to overvalued exchange rates and large current account deficits. These factors, in turn, make it difficult to sustain exchange rate pegs, placing heavy demands upon monetary policy to sustain exchange-rate based programs in their later phases. This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation of the peso that December. Using econometric models of the demand for money, we find evidence that the high growth of the monetary base in 1994 reflected strong positive shocks to the demand for money, not to its supply. Next, we estimate a monetary policy reaction function for Mexico. Based on this estimate, we argue that interest rates rose only moderately less in 1994, in response to downward pressure on the peso and on international reserves, than was predicted by the authorities' reaction function. This result is qualified somewhat by our finding that if interest rates are modeled as reacting to reserves net of Tesobonos, rather than gross reserves, the measured deviation of actual from predicted interest rates would have been much greater. However, the relative complacency with which both the authorities and the market viewed the build-up in Tesobonos, at least until late in 1994, suggests that the reaction function based on net reserves probably does not capture "normal" monetary policy behavior. Our findings suggests that in order to have maintained the peg, the authorities would have needed to intensify their response to exchange market developments--that is, to alter their reaction function--at a time when concerns over the health of the banking sector, and of the economy more generally, would have pointed to a relaxation of monetary policy. Insofar as such tightenings of monetary reaction functions are difficult to achieve, Mexico's experience suggests that policymakers relying on the exchange rate as a nominal anchor probably should be prepared either to abandon that anchor or tighten monetary policy well before speculative pressures intensify.

Author: Miguel Alberto Kiguel
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 59

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Disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve tradeoff in the medium run. Instead of having a sharp recession in the early stage of stabilization, there often is an initial expansion of output followed by a recession and balance of payments difficulties. This pattern is related to programs that use the exchange rate as an instrument of disinflation.

Author: Mr.Guillermo Calvo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451945582
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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This paper studies price stabilization policy under both predetermined and flexible exchange rates. Under predetermined exchange rates, a non-credible stabilization program results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The initial expansion accompanies an appreciating real exchange rate. Under flexible exchange rates, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program. The real exchange rate appreciates sharply on impact but depreciates afterwards. Lack of credibility is more costly under predetermined exchange rates because the real effects are more pronounced.

Author: Mr.R. Armando Morales
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451841876
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19

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Complementing the explanation provided by Calvo and Vegh (1994) for money-based stabilization programs, exchange rate uncertainty introduced to a particular version of the portfolio approach with imperfect competition in the banking system leads to a bias toward appreciation that is directly related to the divergence of expectations and that dampens the interaction between portfolio movements and the real exchange rate. Based on Frankel-Froot, uncertainty exists when the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate is temporarily unknown in a foreign exchange market with two types of agents: ‘parity-guessers,’ who expect a jump to a reference parity level, and ‘money-followers,’ who expect nominal depreciation equal to the monetary rule.

Author: Richard J Sweeney
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429721064
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 347

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With the loss of Soviet control in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the move toward economic liberalization in many developing countries, a huge increase in the number of convertible currencies in the world has occurred. A key aspect of the management of these currencies involves their relationships with the world economy, which is determined

Author: Mr.Daniel Gros
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451971648
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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This paper discusses stabilization policy in the presence of bands for the exchange rate. The bands are modelled in a probabilistic sense: monetary policy has to be such as to keep the probability, that the exchange rate stays within the bands, above a certain threshold. In contrast to other models of target zones, this formulation leads to a linear decision rule and implies sizeable intra-marginal interventions, which corresponds to the experience in the EMS. The extent to which short-run monetary policy is constraint by the bands depends on its own long-run components and on fiscal policy.

Author: Guillermo A. Calvo
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262532600
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 572

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Essays by leading economists and scholars reflecting on Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics.

Author: Ilan Goldfajn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
Tight money in a given financial crisis can serve either to attract funds or to repel them, depending on the expectations that a rise in interest rates generates. With inelastic expectations, no fear of crisis or of currency depreciation, an increase in the discount rate attracts funds from abroad, and helps provide the cash needed to ensure liquidity; with elastic expectations of change - of falling prices, bankruptcies, or exchange depreciation - raising the discount rate may suggest to foreigners the need to take more funds out rather than in.

Author: Mr.A. Javier Hamann
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Do exchange-rate-based stabilizations generate distinctive economic dynamics? To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ—especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange-rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not.