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Author: H. Lieth
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364251863X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 443
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Book Description
The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
Author: H. Lieth
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364251863X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 443
Get Book Here
Book Description
The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
Author: William R. Bell
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439846588
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 544
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Book Description
Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s
Author: Svend Hylleberg
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 494
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Book Description
This volume brings together leading papers on the existing standard economic theory of seasonality as well as papers which apply newer statistical tools to the modelling of seasonal phenomena. It includes a discussion of the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment, as well as an assessment ofrecent developments in the field.
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: Svend Hylleberg
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483277747
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
Seasonality in Regression presents the problems of seasonality in economic regression models. This book discusses the procedures that may have application in practical econometric work. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the tremendous increase in the computational capabilities made by the development of the electronic computer that has profound implications for the way seasonality is handled by economists. This text then examines some seasonal models and their characteristics. Other chapters consider the most frequently applied evaluation criteria and appraise the values in the applications. This book discusses as well the frequency domain estimators and provides insight into problems of estimating the disturbance–covariance matrix through the use of the disturbance spectrum. The final chapter deals with the main objective of the treatment of personality to formulate and estimate econometric models. This book is a valuable resource for economists and econometricians who have knowledge of econometrics at an advanced undergraduate or graduate level.
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521565882
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.
Author: Stephen Devereux
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136494405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341
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Book Description
Seasonality is a severe constraint to sustainable rural livelihoods and a driver of poverty and hunger, particularly in the tropics. Many poor people in developing countries are ill equipped to cope with seasonal variations which can lead to drought or flood and consequences for agriculture, employment, food supply and the spread of disease. The subject has assumed increasing importance as climate change and other forms of development disrupt established seasonal patterns and variations. This book is the first systematic study of seasonality for over twenty years, and it aims to revive academic interest and policy awareness of this crucial but neglected issue. Thematic chapters explore recent shifts with profound implications for seasonality, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, and social protection. Case study chapters explore seasonal dimensions of livelihoods in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi), Asia (Bangladesh, China, India), and Latin America (Peru). Others assess policy responses to adverse seasonality, for example through irrigation, migration and seasonally-sensitive education. The book also includes innovative tools for monitoring seasonality, which should enable more appropriate responses.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107717140
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 578
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Book Description
In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
Author: Tom Baum
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136367071
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 202
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Book Description
Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Author: Estela Bee Dagum
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319318225
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 293
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Book Description
This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
