Modeling UK Mortgage Demand Using Online Searches

Modeling UK Mortgage Demand Using Online Searches PDF Author: Jaroslav Pavlicek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
The internet has become the primary source of information for most of the population in modern economies, and as such, it provides an enormous amount of readily available data. Among these are the data on the internet search queries, which have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking sector as well as for governments and regulators. Here, we provide new insights into the dynamics of the UK mortgage market, specifically the demand for mortgages measured by new mortgage approvals, and whether or how models of this market can be improved by incorporating the online searches of potential mortgage applicants. Because online searches are expected to be one of the last steps before a customer's actual application for a large share of the population, intuitive utility is an appealing approach. We compare two baseline models - an autoregressive model and a structural model with relevant macroeconomic variables - with their extensions utilizing online searches on Google. We find that the extended models better explain the number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance.

Modeling UK Mortgage Demand Using Online Searches

Modeling UK Mortgage Demand Using Online Searches PDF Author: Jaroslav Pavlicek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

Get Book Here

Book Description
The internet has become the primary source of information for most of the population in modern economies, and as such, it provides an enormous amount of readily available data. Among these are the data on the internet search queries, which have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking sector as well as for governments and regulators. Here, we provide new insights into the dynamics of the UK mortgage market, specifically the demand for mortgages measured by new mortgage approvals, and whether or how models of this market can be improved by incorporating the online searches of potential mortgage applicants. Because online searches are expected to be one of the last steps before a customer's actual application for a large share of the population, intuitive utility is an appealing approach. We compare two baseline models - an autoregressive model and a structural model with relevant macroeconomic variables - with their extensions utilizing online searches on Google. We find that the extended models better explain the number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance.

Leverage Regulation and Market Structure

Leverage Regulation and Market Structure PDF Author: Matteo Benetton
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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Book Description
I develop a structural model of mortgage demand and lender competition to study how leverage regulation affects the equilibrium in the UK mortgage market. Using variation in risk-weighted capital requirements across lenders and across mortgages with differential loan-to-values, I show that a one-percentage-point increase in risk-weighted capital requirements increases the interest rate by 10 percent for the average mortgage product. The estimated model implies that heterogeneous leverage regulation increases the concentration of mortgage originations, as large lenders exploit a regulatory cost advantage. Counterfactual analyses uncover potential unintended consequences of policies regulating household leverage, since banning the highest loan-to-value mortgages may reduce large lenders' equity buffers, thereby affecting risk.

Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit

Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit PDF Author: Ioannis Akkizidis
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119099188
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 344

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Book Description
The time for financial technology innovation is now Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit clearly explains why financial credit institutions need to further innovate within the financial technology arena. Through this text, you access a framework for applying innovative strategies in credit services. Provided and supported by financial institutions and entrepreneurs, the information in this engaging book encompasses printed guidance and digital ancillaries. Peer-to-peer lenders are steadily growing within the financial market. Integrating peer-to-peer lending into established credit institutions could strengthen the financial sector as a whole, and could lead to the incorporation of stronger risk and profitability management strategies. Explain (or Explore) approaches and challenges in financial analysis applied to credit risk and profitability Explore additional information provided via digital ancillaries, which will further support your understanding and application of key concepts Navigate the information organised into three subject areas: describing a new business model, knowledge integration, and proposing a new model for the Hybrid Financial Sector Understand how the rise of fintech fits into context within the current financial system Follow discussion of the current status quo and role of innovation in the financial industry, and consider the financial technology innovation landscape from the perspective of an entrepreneur Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit is a critical text that bridges the gap in understanding between financial technology entrepreneurs and credit institutions.

The Truth about Modelling

The Truth about Modelling PDF Author: Jean Shrimpton
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Models (Persons)
Languages : en
Pages : 153

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Documentation Abstracts

Documentation Abstracts PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Documentation
Languages : en
Pages : 472

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Book Description


Interlibrary Loan Practices Handbook

Interlibrary Loan Practices Handbook PDF Author: Cherié L. Weible
Publisher: American Library Association
ISBN: 0838992951
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 144

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Book Description
Consortia and other library partnerships are now sharing ever larger fractions of their collections, and this book gives library staff the tools necessary for a smoothly functioning ILL system.

Complex Mortgages (CM)

Complex Mortgages (CM) PDF Author: Gene Amromin
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437987850
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57

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Book Description
CM became a popular borrowing instrument during the bullish housing market of the early 2000s but vanished rapidly during the subsequent downturn. These non-traditional loans (interest only, negative amortization, and teaser mortgages) enable households to postpone loan repayment compared to traditional mortgages and hence relax borrowing constraints. But, they increase household leverage and heighten dependence on mortgage refinancing. CM were chosen by prime borrowers with high income levels seeking to purchase expensive houses relative to their incomes. Borrowers with CM experience substantially higher ex post default rates than borrowers with traditional mortgages with similar characteristics. Illus. This is a print on demand report.

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation PDF Author: Kenneth Train
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521766559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399

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Book Description
This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home

International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home PDF Author:
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080471714
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 3870

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Book Description
Available online via SciVerse ScienceDirect, or in print for a limited time only, The International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, Seven Volume Set is the first international reference work for housing scholars and professionals, that uses studies in economics and finance, psychology, social policy, sociology, anthropology, geography, architecture, law, and other disciplines to create an international portrait of housing in all its facets: from meanings of home at the microscale, to impacts on macro-economy. This comprehensive work is edited by distinguished housing expert Susan J. Smith, together with Marja Elsinga, Ong Seow Eng, Lorna Fox O'Mahony and Susan Wachter, and a multi-disciplinary editorial team of 20 world-class scholars in all. Working at the cutting edge of their subject, liaising with an expert editorial advisory board, and engaging with policy-makers and professionals, the editors have worked for almost five years to secure the quality, reach, relevance and coherence of this work. A broad and inclusive table of contents signals (or tesitifes to) detailed investigation of historical and theoretical material as well as in-depth analysis of current issues. This seven-volume set contains over 500 entries, listed alphabetically, but grouped into seven thematic sections including methods and approaches; economics and finance; environments; home and homelessness; institutions; policy; and welfare and well-being. Housing professionals, both academics and practitioners, will find The International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home useful for teaching, discovery, and research needs. International in scope, engaging with trends in every world region The editorial board and contributors are drawn from a wide constituency, collating expertise from academics, policy makers, professionals and practitioners, and from every key center for housing research Every entry stands alone on its merits and is accessed alphabetically, yet each is fully cross-referenced, and attached to one of seven thematic categories whose ‘wholes' far exceed the sum of their parts

Informatics Abstracts

Informatics Abstracts PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Documentation
Languages : en
Pages : 668

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Book Description