Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting PDF Download
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Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475725264
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475725264
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
Get Book Here
Book Description
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Author: Xiaolong Li
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811905649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 846
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Book Description
The proceedings consist of papers accepted by the 5th ICEMGD, which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editing committee of the conference. The papers have a diverse range of topics situated at the intersecting field of Economic Management, Public Administration and Green Development. ICEMGD is working to provide a platform for international participants from fields like macro- and microeconomics, international economics, finance, agricultural economics, health economics, business management and marketing strategies, regional development studies, social governance, and sustainable development. This proceedings volume, together with the conference, looks forward to spark inspirations and promote collaborations. It will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals and policy makers in the field of economic management, public administration, and development studies. Due to COVID-19, ICEMGD was held online on 12-17 August, 2021.
Author: Charles Sutton
Publisher: Now Pub
ISBN: 9781601985729
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
An Introduction to Conditional Random Fields provides a comprehensive tutorial aimed at application-oriented practitioners seeking to apply CRFs. The monograph does not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, and so is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.
Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441903208
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 591
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Book Description
This edition contains a large number of additions and corrections scattered throughout the text, including the incorporation of a new chapter on state-space models. The companion diskette for the IBM PC has expanded into the software package ITSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC, which includes a manual and can be ordered from Springer-Verlag. * We are indebted to many readers who have used the book and programs and made suggestions for improvements. Unfortunately there is not enough space to acknowledge all who have contributed in this way; however, special mention must be made of our prize-winning fault-finders, Sid Resnick and F. Pukelsheim. Special mention should also be made of Anthony Brockwell, whose advice and support on computing matters was invaluable in the preparation of the new diskettes. We have been fortunate to work on the new edition in the excellent environments provided by the University of Melbourne and Colorado State University. We thank Duane Boes particularly for his support and encouragement throughout, and the Australian Research Council and National Science Foundation for their support of research related to the new material. We are also indebted to Springer-Verlag for their constant support and assistance in preparing the second edition. Fort Collins, Colorado P. J. BROCKWELL November, 1990 R. A. DAVIS * /TSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC by P. J. Brockwell and R. A. Davis. ISBN: 0-387-97482-2; 1991.
Author: Tata Subba Rao
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444538585
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 778
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Book Description
'Handbook of Statistics' is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with volume 30 dealing with time series.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 704
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Book Description
Author: Jan Beran
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642355129
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 892
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Book Description
Long-memory processes are known to play an important part in many areas of science and technology, including physics, geophysics, hydrology, telecommunications, economics, finance, climatology, and network engineering. In the last 20 years enormous progress has been made in understanding the probabilistic foundations and statistical principles of such processes. This book provides a timely and comprehensive review, including a thorough discussion of mathematical and probabilistic foundations and statistical methods, emphasizing their practical motivation and mathematical justification. Proofs of the main theorems are provided and data examples illustrate practical aspects. This book will be a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students in statistics, mathematics, econometrics and other quantitative areas, as well as for practitioners and applied researchers who need to analyze data in which long memory, power laws, self-similar scaling or fractal properties are relevant.
Author: Dimitris N. Politis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319213474
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
The Model-Free Prediction Principle expounded upon in this monograph is based on the simple notion of transforming a complex dataset to one that is easier to work with, e.g., i.i.d. or Gaussian. As such, it restores the emphasis on observable quantities, i.e., current and future data, as opposed to unobservable model parameters and estimates thereof, and yields optimal predictors in diverse settings such as regression and time series. Furthermore, the Model-Free Bootstrap takes us beyond point prediction in order to construct frequentist prediction intervals without resort to unrealistic assumptions such as normality. Prediction has been traditionally approached via a model-based paradigm, i.e., (a) fit a model to the data at hand, and (b) use the fitted model to extrapolate/predict future data. Due to both mathematical and computational constraints, 20th century statistical practice focused mostly on parametric models. Fortunately, with the advent of widely accessible powerful computing in the late 1970s, computer-intensive methods such as the bootstrap and cross-validation freed practitioners from the limitations of parametric models, and paved the way towards the `big data' era of the 21st century. Nonetheless, there is a further step one may take, i.e., going beyond even nonparametric models; this is where the Model-Free Prediction Principle is useful. Interestingly, being able to predict a response variable Y associated with a regressor variable X taking on any possible value seems to inadvertently also achieve the main goal of modeling, i.e., trying to describe how Y depends on X. Hence, as prediction can be treated as a by-product of model-fitting, key estimation problems can be addressed as a by-product of being able to perform prediction. In other words, a practitioner can use Model-Free Prediction ideas in order to additionally obtain point estimates and confidence intervals for relevant parameters leading to an alternative, transformation-based approach to statistical inference.
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
ISBN:
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 572
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Book Description
Deep learning methods offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, such as the automatic learning of temporal dependence and the automatic handling of temporal structures like trends and seasonality. With clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons you’ll discover how to develop deep learning models for your own time series forecasting projects.
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 359
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Book Description
Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.
