Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era PDF Download
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Author: Andrea Carriero
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Andrea Carriero
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Wei-Fong Pan
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Andrea Carriero
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Languages : en
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Author: Giray Gozgor
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889716783
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Author: Mariarosaria Comunale
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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This paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.
Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691194734
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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For the past few years, the author, a renowned economist, has been applying the statistical tools of economics to decision making under uncertainty in the context of patient health status and response to treatment. He shows how statistical imprecision and identification problems affect empirical research in the patient-care sphere.
Author: Giovanni Pellegrino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: William MacAskill
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198722273
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
Author: Pragyan Deb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513550251
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.
Author: Lucy Greig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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We study the effect of uncertainty in New Zealand, a small open economy, by considering global and New Zealand-specific uncertainty proxies, including several US- and global-centric measures and two novel New Zealand-specific uncertainty proxies constructed using surveys of New Zealand firms and professional forecasters. We study the effect of uncertainty on a set of New Zealand macroeconomic variables. While all of the uncertainty proxies contain valuable information to understand macroeconomic fluctuations in New Zealand, a simple SVAR analysis suggests that global uncertainty is more important than domestic uncertainty in driving the New Zealand business cycle. The implications of uncertainty for monetary policy largely depend on how heightened uncertainty interacts with monetary policy objectives.
